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Tropical two-fer

536,072 Views | 3418 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
Cromagnum
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In reply to texsn95 • 11:27p, 10/5/20
AG
texsn95 said:
It's going to be a juggling act between how strong the ridge is over Florida, how much gamma affects Delta's track, and when the trough arrives in Texas that causes it to turn. Fascinating setup.

It feels like every setup this year has been a nightmare to forecast. Most of these have done some strange stall and loop, or been affected by another one in the process of stalling and doing something strange.
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HerschelwoodHardhead
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In reply to Marauder Blue 6 • 7:20a, 10/6/20
AG
Marauder Blue 6 said:
Beat40 said:
Going to be interested what the space city guys have to say in the morning.


They'll be hedging up a storm. "While we don't expect it to landfall nearby, go ahead and start preparing so that if it does hit nearby, we can say that we warned that it would hit here all along." They've become to afraid to make a prediction and stick with it.
Maybe I'm different than most, but I find it refreshing to read predictions where they plainly state their uncertainty. I don't want them making a prediction and stating it as fact, if in fact they have little confidence in where it'll go.

If they have no clue where its going, I can plan accordingly. If they know its going to hit NOLA directly, then will I let my guard down. I'd rather wait on good info instead of getting bad info early.
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P.H. Dexippus
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7:21a, 10/6/20
AG
Looks like the track has moved westward
The story isn't that [DeSantis] "couldn't win" the primary. The story is that an overwhelming majority of our population is heinously stupid. 50% of them vote for communists. 75% of the remaining 50% vote for Trump, who cant win. When the majority of the opposition party insists on voting for an opposition candidate who can't win, you get exactly the government you deserve. - Well Endowed Ag
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Cromagnum
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7:26a, 10/6/20
AG
40 to 110 mph in one day.
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AgLiving06
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7:27a, 10/6/20
Hopefully this remains true:

Quote:
The National Hurricane Center track has shifted slightly west in response to the models, but remains centered on Louisiana. And in looking at the latest model guidance this morning, the general westward trend in the models seems to have stopped, so the current track seems reasonably on point
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7:30a, 10/6/20
Fitch
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7:40a, 10/6/20
AG
Looks like my folks will need to cut their Cancun trip short.
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AgLiving06
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7:45a, 10/6/20
Interesting, Britta seems to be the most willing to take a stance on storms.

She's already making it clear "this is not our storm."
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Raiderjay
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8:06a, 10/6/20
Hope that high pressure holds strong . Wouldn't take much of a westward change to put us in the sh/t ...
[b][raiderjay, you need to come up to the front of the bus where I can see you in this giant mirror above my steering wheel. -Staff][/b]
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Cromagnum
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In reply to Raiderjay • 8:15a, 10/6/20
AG
We want the east coast high pressure to move out to the east. If it holds strong or builds in it will push that ******* our way.
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98Ag99Grad
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8:18a, 10/6/20
AG
Euro model shows landfall near LA/TX border. NHS following the GFS track which was better for Laura last month.
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Quincey P. Morris
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 8:19a, 10/6/20
AG
I think SCW seems pretty clear they don't think this is coming here, but it would be imprudent to not suggest folks keep an eye on it when it's forecast to come relatively close.
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8:20a, 10/6/20
Cromagnum
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In reply to Fitch • 8:25a, 10/6/20
AG
Fitch said:
Looks like my folks will need to cut their Cancun trip short.


Are they there now? It's suppose to hit hard there tonight. Looks like Reed Timmer is en route with his 1970s mustache.

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Fitch
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In reply to Cromagnum • 8:28a, 10/6/20
AG
Yes. Been there since Saturday and just woke up to forecasts of a cat 4. Trying to figure out a game plan...
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RK
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8:35a, 10/6/20
AG
I'd recommend finding all the dos equis and tortilla chips you can and sheltering in place.
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k20dub
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8:53a, 10/6/20
AG
I have some friends who just got to Cancun yesterday.
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P.H. Dexippus
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In reply to k20dub • 9:00a, 10/6/20
AG
k20dub said:
I have some friends who just got to Cancun yesterday.

The story isn't that [DeSantis] "couldn't win" the primary. The story is that an overwhelming majority of our population is heinously stupid. 50% of them vote for communists. 75% of the remaining 50% vote for Trump, who cant win. When the majority of the opposition party insists on voting for an opposition candidate who can't win, you get exactly the government you deserve. - Well Endowed Ag
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Cromagnum
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In reply to k20dub • 9:05a, 10/6/20
AG
k20dub said:
I have some friends who just got to Cancun yesterday.


"Awesome amenities, friendly staff, good food. Cat 4 hurricane. 1 out of 5 stars"
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Fitch
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9:51a, 10/6/20
AG
Sounds like their hotel is getting evacuated further inland. Not sure what that means...other than the obvious.
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Cromagnum
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10:03a, 10/6/20
AG
Still a few days out but another shift west...

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Trolley Problems
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10:29a, 10/6/20
Delta now a Cat 4 according to recent hurricane hunter aircraft data.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/061520.shtml
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Beat40
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In reply to Cromagnum • 10:35a, 10/6/20
Cromagnum said:
Still a few days out but another shift west...



What I'm gathering is to start paying really close attention on Thursday and through early Friday to see if this bad boy is turning or not. Looks like this thing is going to be moving quickly on Friday.

Interesting NHC has basically kept a pretty similar landfall cone.
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Seabreeze
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10:40a, 10/6/20
Cat 4 130 mph now
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Cromagnum
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In reply to Seabreeze • 10:43a, 10/6/20
AG
90 mph increase in a little over a day. Insane.
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Seabreeze
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10:44a, 10/6/20
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Cromagnum
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10:49a, 10/6/20
AG
Someone better get Chuck on the scene to deal with this *****

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Fitch
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10:49a, 10/6/20
AG
They've shut down liquor sales in Cancun. Lordy.
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texsn95
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In reply to Seabreeze • 10:54a, 10/6/20
AG
Seabreeze said:
Dang...so at that rate, it's going to be as strong as an F5 tornado soon...that'd be one heck of a waterspout...
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Phat32
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10:56a, 10/6/20
AG
Damn!
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Cromagnum
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In reply to Phat32 • 10:56a, 10/6/20
AG
A depression.
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Raiderjay
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10:57a, 10/6/20
Cancun is going to get F'd up......
[b][raiderjay, you need to come up to the front of the bus where I can see you in this giant mirror above my steering wheel. -Staff][/b]
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10:58a, 10/6/20
Ag12thman
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11:12a, 10/6/20
AG
They say cooler waters in norther Gulf could weaken it somewhat before it hits.

This season has been absolutely brutal and poor LA / East Texas. Praying for these folks. Their 2020 has been a lot worse than many of the rest of ours.

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texsn95
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In reply to Ag12thman • 11:13a, 10/6/20
AG
Ag12thman said:
They say cooler waters in norther Gulf could weaken it somewhat before it hits.

This season has been absolutely brutal and poor LA / East Texas.

Yes that and some shear near the coast will weaken it some as well. If it's a Cat 4 in the middle of the GoM I'd expect at least a Cat 2 at landfall.
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