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Tropical two-fer

532,779 Views | 3418 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
AgLiving06
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In reply to BohunkAg • 2:22p, 8/24/20
BohunkAg said:
AgLiving06 said:
His intro is important to because there was a ton of talk about the met pros really questioning what the NHC was doing.

Quote:
I will not lie. (We never do, and that's a promise you can bank on). When the National Hurricane Center issued its updated track forecast at 10 am CT this morning I had my doubts. Forecasters there seemed too conservative in not moving the track of Laura closer to Houston, as that is where a lot of the model data indicated it would go. However, in going over all of the just released data from 12z models, their track forecast (shown below) now looks pretty good. So, kudos to the pros in Miami.

Don't you mean the amateurs questioning the met pros?

Amateurs sure.

But as Eric said, even he didn't understand the reasoning for keeping things to the east of here, especially with the UKMET model hanging out over Texas.

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gougler08
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In reply to LC Wannabe • 2:23p, 8/24/20
AG
LC Wannabe said:
Unless you live in SW Louisiana.
Very true
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Seabreeze
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In reply to HtownAg92 • 2:23p, 8/24/20
Right now its pretty low. At least we know about this one. Alicia is the one I'll always remember. Went to bed one night to wake up to a Cat 3 beating on the door the following morning. Think we had less than 24 hours to prepare. Of course it hit at night, going outside about 1 in the morning to look at the stars with my Dad durring the eye comming over was cool.
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Trolley Problems
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In reply to gooberhead • 2:24p, 8/24/20
gooberhead said:
Anti-taxxer said:
Jock 07 said:
Nagler said:
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.

and there's only one S in New Braunfels.

You'll find it right there at the end. There's also an X in Mexia

That's Mahair.


My grandad, from Lott, Tx, pronounced it "Muhair". Only way I've ever known to say it.
And now, back to the coronacanes...

Family in the Corsicana area all pronounce it "Muh-hay-uh".

Back to our regularly scheduled programming.
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ChipFTAC01
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In reply to Trolley Problems • 2:25p, 8/24/20
AG
From Corsicana, can confirm.
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V8Aggie
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In reply to Trolley Problems • 2:25p, 8/24/20
AG
Trolley Problems said:
gooberhead said:
Anti-taxxer said:
Jock 07 said:
Nagler said:
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.

and there's only one S in New Braunfels.

You'll find it right there at the end. There's also an X in Mexia

That's Mahair.


My grandad, from Lott, Tx, pronounced it "Muhair". Only way I've ever known to say it.
And now, back to the coronacanes...

Family in the Corsicana area all pronounce it "Muh-hay-uh".

Back to our regularly scheduled programming.
And that would be correct!
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gigemJTH12
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2:25p, 8/24/20
AG
Latest Euro

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gougler08
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 2:26p, 8/24/20
AG
gigemJTH12 said:
Latest Euro

That's the 12z, we're on the 18z now...
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Premium
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In reply to Trolley Problems • 2:26p, 8/24/20
AG
Trolley Problems said:
gooberhead said:
Anti-taxxer said:
Jock 07 said:
Nagler said:
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.

and there's only one S in New Braunfels.

You'll find it right there at the end. There's also an X in Mexia

That's Mahair.


My grandad, from Lott, Tx, pronounced it "Muhair". Only way I've ever known to say it.
And now, back to the coronacanes...

Family in the Corsicana area all pronounce it "Muh-hay-uh".

Back to our regularly scheduled programming.


Seems like the City could put out some guidance on this and put it to bed.
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Daddy-O5
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 2:26p, 8/24/20
AG
gigemJTH12 said:
Latest Euro

Wtf happened here?
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 2:27p, 8/24/20
AG
gigemJTH12 said:
Latest Euro



Which one is thought to be most accurate this time ?
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LC Wannabe
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2:28p, 8/24/20
S
I guess I know what I will be doing after work today.. I was hoping to not have to leave Sulphur, but with a pregnant wife, I don't think I have much choice. I hate having to evacuate.
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to gougler08 • 2:28p, 8/24/20
AG
gougler08 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
Latest Euro

That's the 12z, we're on the 18z now...
this person knows more than me.
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TXAG14
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2:28p, 8/24/20
Pretty obvious it will be tomorrow till we know for certain where this thing is going.
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gigemJTH12
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2:30p, 8/24/20
AG
this is where I got it

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2:31p, 8/24/20
AG
Oh look, Mexia pronunciation is correctly explained and even demonstrated in their Wikipedia page.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexia,_Texas

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/31/Mexia.wav
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2:32p, 8/24/20
Seabreeze
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2:33p, 8/24/20
Latest Euro run

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BSD
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In reply to Premium • 2:36p, 8/24/20
AG
Premium said:
Oh look, Mexia pronunciation is correctly explained and even demonstrated in their Wikipedia page.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexia,_Texas

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/31/Mexia.wav


Take it to the gawddamn Mexia board.


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Chewy
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2:38p, 8/24/20
AG
I have cousins from Mexia and it's pronounced like the Corsicana people say it.

Figured more people on TexAgs would know to properly pronounce where Anna Nicole Smith is from.
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Nitro Power
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2:40p, 8/24/20
AG
TexAgs...always keeping focus and never diverting from thread titles....
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Quincey P. Morris
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2:41p, 8/24/20
AG
If we get hit with this thing I blame the people down the street who had their roof replaced without a hurricane in the middle of hurricane season.
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Anti-taxxer
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 2:42p, 8/24/20
AG
gigemJTH12 said:
this is where I got it


What does this mean in English?
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Ag_07
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2:42p, 8/24/20
AG
So if it goes to TX/LA border what are we looking at effects felt here?

Guessing not much being on the west side of it. Maybe some wind and a few showers?
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Anti-taxxer
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In reply to Seabreeze • 2:44p, 8/24/20
AG
Seabreeze said:
Latest Euro run


Isn't this the same model as the one Gig Em just posted? They are showing different things?
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Ag_07 • 2:44p, 8/24/20
Depends on strength and speed of movement really. Bigger more powerful slow moving storm more effects. Smaller gets in and out less.
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 2:46p, 8/24/20
Yes. Not sure where the Twitter got its graph from, but what I posted is what the euro is showing on its newest run.
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AustinCountyAg
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2:49p, 8/24/20
I pray one of these damn stores brings us some rain
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camelclub
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2:52p, 8/24/20
AG
sounds like some of you are disappointed it likely won't hit houston
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SJEAg
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In reply to Ag_07 • 2:54p, 8/24/20
AG
Ag_07 said:
So if it goes to TX/LA border what are we looking at effects felt here?

Guessing not much being on the west side of it. Maybe some wind and a few showers?

Maybe not even that...unless it's a monster size-wise like Ike was (think it's TS diameter was over 400 miles). When Rita, which wasn't tiny, smacked Beaumont I didn't even get drizzle in west Houston.
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gougler08
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 2:56p, 8/24/20
AG
Anti-taxxer said:
gigemJTH12 said:
this is where I got it


What does this mean in English?
The latest tweet from Bamwx says they are leaning way more west than most and still projecting Houston

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Cromagnum
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In reply to Anti-taxxer • 3:02p, 8/24/20
AG
Anti-taxxer said:
gigemJTH12 said:
this is where I got it


What does this mean in English?


They take the operational model and apply tweaks to conditions to simulate what would happen if there were a bunch of slightly different scenarios. Those are the ensembles and the black line is the average of all of those. As far as the colors go, that's pressure of the storm. Lower number = stronger. Most of the green (weak storm) veers right. Stronger ones go further left.
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Seabreeze
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3:04p, 8/24/20
They take the worst case scenario out of 100 model runs of the euro then try to make it into fact. Thats why I stay very clear Twitter. Not saying they are wrong, because no one really knows right now and its pretty off of every other thing out there.
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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3:04p, 8/24/20
AG
So should I believe the cat 4 right up Houston's ******* or everything else showing a breezy but comfortable Thursday afternoon of golf in Houston
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AgLiving06
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In reply to Seabreeze • 3:10p, 8/24/20
Seabreeze said:
They take the worst case scenario out of 100 model runs of the euro then try to make it into fact. Thats why I stay very clear Twitter. Not saying they are wrong, because no one really knows right now and its pretty off of every other thing out there.

But if you want to really make a name for yourself, you need to pick the low probability option and hope if it pans out. Then you're instantly a name and can converge back to the center with a much bigger audience.
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