Houston
Sponsored by

Tropical two-fer

540,267 Views | 3418 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
SLAM
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BohunkAg • 10:17a, 8/24/20
BohunkAg said:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/241440.shtml

The NHC basically said the westward models are bullsh-t lol

Quote:
Although the track guidance is in somewhat better agreement today,
there remains some cross-track spread by day 3, with the UKMET
showing landfall well southwest of the official forecast. The NHC
track is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward the
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.


This is funny because the UKMET has been by far the most accurate for this storm. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been mostly garbage.
Reply Quote
2
ShotOver
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:18a, 8/24/20
AG
Reply Quote
gigemJTH12
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to gigemJTH12 • 10:19a, 8/24/20
AG
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Berger agrees. 4pm will be telling
Reply Quote
1 edit
Sazerac
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:19a, 8/24/20
AG
Still say this is another TX/LA border landfall. At CAT2
Reply Quote
TopFlightReject
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SLAM • 10:22a, 8/24/20
SLAM said:
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?


Yes. Also the NHC appears to put a lot more effort towards it's 4pm update. The signs are all there for a shift west.
I'm going to bet that the NHC doesnt move it west at all in the 4pm update.. i bet it stays right where it is or shifts a little more East maybe.. Really going to make a lot of mets throw up their hands. Maybe i'm just hoping i'll be right.. haha.

I got a wife thats 39 weeks and 2 days pregnant.. she's ready to pop. I DO NOT want to be stuck somewhere in a hurricane delivering a baby.

Reply Quote
1
AgLiving06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to gigemJTH12 • 10:23a, 8/24/20
gigemJTH12 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Berger agrees. 4pm will be telling


They said the same thing about the 10am.

I don't think they have a clue at this point.
Reply Quote
12
1 edit
TopFlightReject
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:24a, 8/24/20
If its true that the NHC relies heavily on 0z and 12z data (pretty much the data thats released before the 4pm advisories) then I would think that the joint PC would have held off until closer to that timeframe. I get the feeling what happens at that PC and what comes out at the 4pm advisory will set the stage for what most Houstonians do regarding prep and evac.
Reply Quote
Gig-Em2003
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:32a, 8/24/20
AG
I don't think they have much of an idea what this thing will do. The fact that there is potential for a Cat 2-4 range storm to hit Houston within the next 3 days is enough for the city to take this seriously.
Reply Quote
1
rangerdanger
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to TopFlightReject • 10:40a, 8/24/20
AG
TopFlightReject said:

I got a wife thats 39 weeks and 2 days pregnant.. she's ready to pop. I DO NOT want to be stuck somewhere in a hurricane delivering a baby.


I would be feeding her chocolate cake and taking her walks around the neighborhood lol. Best wishes on whenever the time comes though.
Reply Quote
7
gigemJTH12
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to rangerdanger • 10:40a, 8/24/20
AG
rangerdanger said:
TopFlightReject said:

I got a wife thats 39 weeks and 2 days pregnant.. she's ready to pop. I DO NOT want to be stuck somewhere in a hurricane delivering a baby.


I would be feeding her chocolate cake and taking her walks around the neighborhood lol. Best wishes on whenever the time comes though.
you forgot sexing her!
Reply Quote
17
1 edit
gigemJTH12
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AgLiving06 • 10:41a, 8/24/20
AG
AgLiving06 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Berger agrees. 4pm will be telling


They said the same thing about the 10am.

I don't think they have a clue at this point.
not true. everyone I trust is still consistent that its coming this way. they just dont believe that 10am track
Reply Quote
Post removed:
by user
10:42a, 8/24/20
Post removed:
by user
10:42a, 8/24/20
gougler08
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to [removed post] • 10:43a, 8/24/20
Fitch
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:45a, 8/24/20
AG
Got some copied/pasted text messages via my grad school buddy from his cousin who works at the hurricane center in Florida. He's an Ag, so if you're on this thread, thanks for looking out!

In essence says there's a reasonable possibility on the table Laura goes to Cat 4 up Galveston Bay, no necessarily that will happen. Also a fairly good chance Houston will be in the region of tropical storm winds.

Kind of crazy there's that much variability ~48 hours out.

Obligatory:
Reply Quote
9
BohunkAg
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Fitch • 10:47a, 8/24/20
AG
Anyone remember how widely variable the track for Rita was in 2005?
Reply Quote
2
CFTXAG10
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:48a, 8/24/20
AG


I am just holding out hope that the worst of it lands on the TX/LA border, and we get TS conditions only
Reply Quote
1 edit
Fitch
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BohunkAg • 10:51a, 8/24/20
AG
Ah yes...Katrina 2.0 with the wobble.
Reply Quote
1
Beat40
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:51a, 8/24/20
From reading the language from guys like Berger, Lanza, and the comments they are making to tweets, it appears to me they don't believe the 10am update.

I wonder what they are going to say if the 4m update has a similar track.

From reading some threads on twitter, apparently getting air clearance to do recon flights to accurately gauge where the center of the storm is not being granted by Cuba. I think that's a big reason why there is so much uncertainty up to this point. At least that's the last I read - could have changed.
Reply Quote
2
sts7049
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AgLiving06 • 10:53a, 8/24/20
AG
if only there weren't so many variables in the atmosphere and we had 100% precise models. then maybe we could feel better about what will happen 4 days from now.
Reply Quote
2
jenn96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BohunkAg • 10:54a, 8/24/20
AG
BohunkAg said:
Anyone remember how widely variable the track for Rita was in 2005?

I remember. We were expecting it to come in over Matagorda - and basically pass over my house - and instead it hit East Texas and we didn't even get rain.
Reply Quote
6
Beat40
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to gigemJTH12 • 10:54a, 8/24/20
gigemJTH12 said:
AgLiving06 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Berger agrees. 4pm will be telling


They said the same thing about the 10am.

I don't think they have a clue at this point.
not true. everyone I trust is still consistent that its coming this way. they just dont believe that 10am track
Many, including Berger and Lanza, consistently say NHC is the best there is out there, but reading into the language in their tweets, they don't trust the 10am track from the NHC. I find that interesting.
Reply Quote
Big Al 1992
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:58a, 8/24/20
AG
FWIW H-E-B was very normal this morning. They have this stuff down - lots of full pallets of water. Cashier said they are bracing for the nut jobs to panic and crush the store after work today.

Insert Kevin Bacon's "everyone remain calm" gif.
Reply Quote
Kenneth_2003
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Big Al 1992 • 11:01a, 8/24/20
AG
Big Al 1992 said:
FWIW H-E-B was very normal this morning. They have this stuff down - lots of full pallets of water. Cashier said they are bracing for the nut jobs to panic and crush the store after work today.

Insert Kevin Bacon's "everyone remain calm" gif.
Great... I need a few basic groceries and I get to deal with 10x morons...

Fack...
Reply Quote
Post removed:
by user
In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 11:07a, 8/24/20
bluefire579
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to jenn96 • 11:08a, 8/24/20
AG
jenn96 said:
BohunkAg said:
Anyone remember how widely variable the track for Rita was in 2005?

I remember. We were expecting it to come in over Matagorda - and basically pass over my house - and instead it hit East Texas and we didn't even get rain.
I was in school at A&M at the time. Exact same thing - I remember going to the Bryan HEB for basic groceries and having to pick through cleared shelves because everyone was panic buying. Didn't rain there either.
Reply Quote
1
Ferris Wheel Allstar
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:08a, 8/24/20
AG
how I feel like meteorologist are predicting the path of this thing:

Reply Quote
9
Ferris Wheel Allstar
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 11:10a, 8/24/20
AG
Kenneth_2003 said:
Big Al 1992 said:
FWIW H-E-B was very normal this morning. They have this stuff down - lots of full pallets of water. Cashier said they are bracing for the nut jobs to panic and crush the store after work today.

Insert Kevin Bacon's "everyone remain calm" gif.
Great... I need a few basic groceries and I get to deal with 10x morons...

Fack...
Krogers on Studemont was normal as of an hour ago. I just did a delivery order, paid $10 to not have to mess with the crazies
Reply Quote
montanagriz
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to rangerdanger • 11:11a, 8/24/20
S
Sex can induce labor
Reply Quote
1
MAS444
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:11a, 8/24/20
AG
There is no "s" in Kroger.
Reply Quote
18
Nagler
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to MAS444 • 11:14a, 8/24/20
AG
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.

and there's only one S in New Braunfels.
Reply Quote
7
AgCPA95
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to MAS444 • 11:16a, 8/24/20
AG
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.
or Shipley
Reply Quote
1
Martin Q. Blank
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to MAS444 • 11:16a, 8/24/20
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.
There is if you spell it Kroger's.
Reply Quote
2
Martin Q. Blank
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AgCPA95 • 11:17a, 8/24/20
AgCPA95 said:
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.
or Shipley
or Shipley's
Reply Quote
1
WilburTheSly1
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:17a, 8/24/20
Hit up HEB on Sheppard this morning, They are definitely prepared for the run on water and TP...
Reply Quote
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.