BohunkAg said:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/241440.shtml
The NHC basically said the westward models are bullsh-t lolQuote:
Although the track guidance is in somewhat better agreement today,
there remains some cross-track spread by day 3, with the UKMET
showing landfall well southwest of the official forecast. The NHC
track is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward the
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.
This is funny because the UKMET has been by far the most accurate for this storm. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been mostly garbage.