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Tropical two-fer

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SLAM
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In reply to BohunkAg • 10:17a, 8/24/20
BohunkAg said:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/241440.shtml

The NHC basically said the westward models are bullsh-t lol

Quote:
Although the track guidance is in somewhat better agreement today,
there remains some cross-track spread by day 3, with the UKMET
showing landfall well southwest of the official forecast. The NHC
track is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward the
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.


This is funny because the UKMET has been by far the most accurate for this storm. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been mostly garbage.
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ShotOver
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10:18a, 8/24/20
AG
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 10:19a, 8/24/20
AG
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Berger agrees. 4pm will be telling
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Sazerac
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10:19a, 8/24/20
AG
Still say this is another TX/LA border landfall. At CAT2
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TopFlightReject
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In reply to SLAM • 10:22a, 8/24/20
SLAM said:
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?


Yes. Also the NHC appears to put a lot more effort towards it's 4pm update. The signs are all there for a shift west.
I'm going to bet that the NHC doesnt move it west at all in the 4pm update.. i bet it stays right where it is or shifts a little more East maybe.. Really going to make a lot of mets throw up their hands. Maybe i'm just hoping i'll be right.. haha.

I got a wife thats 39 weeks and 2 days pregnant.. she's ready to pop. I DO NOT want to be stuck somewhere in a hurricane delivering a baby.

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AgLiving06
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 10:23a, 8/24/20
gigemJTH12 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Berger agrees. 4pm will be telling


They said the same thing about the 10am.

I don't think they have a clue at this point.
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TopFlightReject
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10:24a, 8/24/20
If its true that the NHC relies heavily on 0z and 12z data (pretty much the data thats released before the 4pm advisories) then I would think that the joint PC would have held off until closer to that timeframe. I get the feeling what happens at that PC and what comes out at the 4pm advisory will set the stage for what most Houstonians do regarding prep and evac.
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Gig-Em2003
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10:32a, 8/24/20
AG
I don't think they have much of an idea what this thing will do. The fact that there is potential for a Cat 2-4 range storm to hit Houston within the next 3 days is enough for the city to take this seriously.
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rangerdanger
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In reply to TopFlightReject • 10:40a, 8/24/20
AG
TopFlightReject said:

I got a wife thats 39 weeks and 2 days pregnant.. she's ready to pop. I DO NOT want to be stuck somewhere in a hurricane delivering a baby.


I would be feeding her chocolate cake and taking her walks around the neighborhood lol. Best wishes on whenever the time comes though.
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to rangerdanger • 10:40a, 8/24/20
AG
rangerdanger said:
TopFlightReject said:

I got a wife thats 39 weeks and 2 days pregnant.. she's ready to pop. I DO NOT want to be stuck somewhere in a hurricane delivering a baby.


I would be feeding her chocolate cake and taking her walks around the neighborhood lol. Best wishes on whenever the time comes though.
you forgot sexing her!
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 10:41a, 8/24/20
AG
AgLiving06 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Berger agrees. 4pm will be telling


They said the same thing about the 10am.

I don't think they have a clue at this point.
not true. everyone I trust is still consistent that its coming this way. they just dont believe that 10am track
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10:42a, 8/24/20
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10:42a, 8/24/20
gougler08
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In reply to [removed post] • 10:43a, 8/24/20
Fitch
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10:45a, 8/24/20
AG
Got some copied/pasted text messages via my grad school buddy from his cousin who works at the hurricane center in Florida. He's an Ag, so if you're on this thread, thanks for looking out!

In essence says there's a reasonable possibility on the table Laura goes to Cat 4 up Galveston Bay, no necessarily that will happen. Also a fairly good chance Houston will be in the region of tropical storm winds.

Kind of crazy there's that much variability ~48 hours out.

Obligatory:
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BohunkAg
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In reply to Fitch • 10:47a, 8/24/20
AG
Anyone remember how widely variable the track for Rita was in 2005?
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CFTXAG10
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10:48a, 8/24/20
AG


I am just holding out hope that the worst of it lands on the TX/LA border, and we get TS conditions only
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Fitch
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In reply to BohunkAg • 10:51a, 8/24/20
AG
Ah yes...Katrina 2.0 with the wobble.
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Beat40
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10:51a, 8/24/20
From reading the language from guys like Berger, Lanza, and the comments they are making to tweets, it appears to me they don't believe the 10am update.

I wonder what they are going to say if the 4m update has a similar track.

From reading some threads on twitter, apparently getting air clearance to do recon flights to accurately gauge where the center of the storm is not being granted by Cuba. I think that's a big reason why there is so much uncertainty up to this point. At least that's the last I read - could have changed.
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sts7049
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 10:53a, 8/24/20
AG
if only there weren't so many variables in the atmosphere and we had 100% precise models. then maybe we could feel better about what will happen 4 days from now.
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jenn96
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In reply to BohunkAg • 10:54a, 8/24/20
AG
BohunkAg said:
Anyone remember how widely variable the track for Rita was in 2005?

I remember. We were expecting it to come in over Matagorda - and basically pass over my house - and instead it hit East Texas and we didn't even get rain.
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Beat40
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 10:54a, 8/24/20
gigemJTH12 said:
AgLiving06 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
gigemJTH12 said:
so some people I trust thing this thing still shifts west and the 4pm update will show it. agree?
Berger agrees. 4pm will be telling


They said the same thing about the 10am.

I don't think they have a clue at this point.
not true. everyone I trust is still consistent that its coming this way. they just dont believe that 10am track
Many, including Berger and Lanza, consistently say NHC is the best there is out there, but reading into the language in their tweets, they don't trust the 10am track from the NHC. I find that interesting.
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Big Al 1992
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10:58a, 8/24/20
AG
FWIW H-E-B was very normal this morning. They have this stuff down - lots of full pallets of water. Cashier said they are bracing for the nut jobs to panic and crush the store after work today.

Insert Kevin Bacon's "everyone remain calm" gif.
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to Big Al 1992 • 11:01a, 8/24/20
AG
Big Al 1992 said:
FWIW H-E-B was very normal this morning. They have this stuff down - lots of full pallets of water. Cashier said they are bracing for the nut jobs to panic and crush the store after work today.

Insert Kevin Bacon's "everyone remain calm" gif.
Great... I need a few basic groceries and I get to deal with 10x morons...

Fack...
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 11:07a, 8/24/20
bluefire579
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In reply to jenn96 • 11:08a, 8/24/20
AG
jenn96 said:
BohunkAg said:
Anyone remember how widely variable the track for Rita was in 2005?

I remember. We were expecting it to come in over Matagorda - and basically pass over my house - and instead it hit East Texas and we didn't even get rain.
I was in school at A&M at the time. Exact same thing - I remember going to the Bryan HEB for basic groceries and having to pick through cleared shelves because everyone was panic buying. Didn't rain there either.
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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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11:08a, 8/24/20
AG
how I feel like meteorologist are predicting the path of this thing:

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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 11:10a, 8/24/20
AG
Kenneth_2003 said:
Big Al 1992 said:
FWIW H-E-B was very normal this morning. They have this stuff down - lots of full pallets of water. Cashier said they are bracing for the nut jobs to panic and crush the store after work today.

Insert Kevin Bacon's "everyone remain calm" gif.
Great... I need a few basic groceries and I get to deal with 10x morons...

Fack...
Krogers on Studemont was normal as of an hour ago. I just did a delivery order, paid $10 to not have to mess with the crazies
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montanagriz
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In reply to rangerdanger • 11:11a, 8/24/20
S
Sex can induce labor
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MAS444
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11:11a, 8/24/20
AG
There is no "s" in Kroger.
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Nagler
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In reply to MAS444 • 11:14a, 8/24/20
AG
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.

and there's only one S in New Braunfels.
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AgCPA95
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In reply to MAS444 • 11:16a, 8/24/20
AG
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.
or Shipley
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Martin Q. Blank
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In reply to MAS444 • 11:16a, 8/24/20
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.
There is if you spell it Kroger's.
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Martin Q. Blank
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In reply to AgCPA95 • 11:17a, 8/24/20
AgCPA95 said:
MAS444 said:
There is no "s" in Kroger.
or Shipley
or Shipley's
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WilburTheSly1
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11:17a, 8/24/20
Hit up HEB on Sheppard this morning, They are definitely prepared for the run on water and TP...
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