Fair points -- revised below. I'll use that type of daily reporting going forward. The peaks and troughs aren't as severe as with the testing data.
Daily Charts
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Forgot about the delay in getting testing results returned and reported. I am curious to see the impact of the opening up of various businesses beginning the weekend of the 2nd. Don't know whether we will see anything but we have to account for time for incubation, and then some number of days of symptoms before people might seek testing. Then we have the delay for testing and reporting.
I'd like to think, or I guess assume, with the increased awareness and spotty mask usage we might see a slower uptick in new cases, spread, death etc after this opening compared to what we saw in March, going in to April. But definitely expect to see a slow and steady rise in all the above.plain_o_llama said:
Forgot about the delay in getting testing results returned and reported. I am curious to see the impact of the opening up of various businesses beginning the weekend of the 2nd. Don't know whether we will see anything but we have to account for time for incubation, and then some number of days of symptoms before people might seek testing. Then we have the delay for testing and reporting.
It will be interesting to see how quickly all the metrics increase. they obviously have to. Nothing has changed between now and February/March besides awareness.
Throwing a guess against the wall, come June 8th we'll know if opening up without a plan was a mistake. That gives 4 weeks for this thing to trickle back out in to the community and start spreading around freely again.
@Fitch, thanks for all the Texas charts.
ETFan said:I'd like to think, or I guess assume, with the increased awareness and spotty mask usage we might see a slower uptick in new cases, spread, death etc after this opening compared to what we saw in March, going in to April. But definitely expect to see a slow and steady rise in all the above.plain_o_llama said:
Forgot about the delay in getting testing results returned and reported. I am curious to see the impact of the opening up of various businesses beginning the weekend of the 2nd. Don't know whether we will see anything but we have to account for time for incubation, and then some number of days of symptoms before people might seek testing. Then we have the delay for testing and reporting.
It will be interesting to see how quickly all the metrics increase. they obviously have to. Nothing has changed between now and February/March besides awareness.
Throwing a guess against the wall, come June 8th we'll know if opening up without a plan was a mistake. That gives 4 weeks for this thing to trickle back out in to the community and start spreading around freely again.
@Fitch, thanks for all the Texas charts.
They do? Georgia opened over two weeks ago and has not seen any metrics increase.
Why did you throw out the rest of my reply?Keegan99 said:ETFan said:I'd like to think, or I guess assume, with the increased awareness and spotty mask usage we might see a slower uptick in new cases, spread, death etc after this opening compared to what we saw in March, going in to April. But definitely expect to see a slow and steady rise in all the above.plain_o_llama said:
Forgot about the delay in getting testing results returned and reported. I am curious to see the impact of the opening up of various businesses beginning the weekend of the 2nd. Don't know whether we will see anything but we have to account for time for incubation, and then some number of days of symptoms before people might seek testing. Then we have the delay for testing and reporting.
It will be interesting to see how quickly all the metrics increase. they obviously have to. Nothing has changed between now and February/March besides awareness.
Throwing a guess against the wall, come June 8th we'll know if opening up without a plan was a mistake. That gives 4 weeks for this thing to trickle back out in to the community and start spreading around freely again.
@Fitch, thanks for all the Texas charts.
They do? Georgia opened over two weeks ago and has not seen any metrics increase.
I quoted your entire reply.
But there was really not much worth responding to once you asserted that the metrics "have to" increase. Evidence from Georgia, to date, does not support the certainty of that claim.
But there was really not much worth responding to once you asserted that the metrics "have to" increase. Evidence from Georgia, to date, does not support the certainty of that claim.
I don't want to derail this informative thread. We can check back on June 8th.Keegan99 said:
I quoted your entire reply.
But there was really not much worth responding to once you asserted that the metrics "have to" increase. Evidence from Georgia, to date, does not support the certainty of that claim.
Here's the question for Texas - did we actually shut things down so early that so low of a percentage of the population got it that it's almost as if we're going to be starting from basically zero here no matter when or how we open up?
I fail to see how this isn't the case. What I was trying to say in my other post was, will the awareness of the virus, mask usage, density of Texas, etc, be enough to keep the spread slowed enough that we can handle it.Beat40 said:
Here's the question for Texas - did we actually shut things down so early that so low of a percentage of the population got it that it's almost as if we're going to be starting from basically zero here no matter when or how we open up?
Did it magically go away? Is the heat and humidity really all we needed? I think it's inevitable, just a matter of how quickly and capacity.
That's why I threw out a June 8th timeline. I do think the things mentioned above will slow it down and it'll take more than 2 weeks to see a steady rise, if we're going to see one. Hopefully we won't.
They may increase. They may not. I don't know. I'm not making a claim either way. But there really isn't any evidence at this point that indicates "they obviously have to".
I'm agreeing with you overall. I simply get the feeling we shut down so early here in Texas that increases in numbers here in the state is inevitable, no matter when or what we do.ETFan said:I fail to see how this isn't the case. What I was trying to say in my other post was, will the awareness of the virus, mask usage, density of Texas, etc, be enough to keep the spread slowed enough that we can handle it.Beat40 said:
Here's the question for Texas - did we actually shut things down so early that so low of a percentage of the population got it that it's almost as if we're going to be starting from basically zero here no matter when or how we open up?
Did it magically go away? Is the heat and humidity really all we needed? I think it's inevitable, just a matter of how quickly and capacity.
That's why I threw out a June 8th timeline. I do think the things mentioned above will slow it down and it'll take more than 2 weeks to see a steady rise, if we're going to see one. Hopefully we won't.
You said this: "Throwing a guess against the wall, come June 8th we'll know if opening up without a plan was a mistake."
We are opening with a plan (can be argued a good or bad one), but I don't think it matters either way honestly. If such a small percentage of the population was infected, increases are going to happen no matter what the plan is. Only thing we can try to control is severity of increase. I think we'll be able to handle what's coming in the next couple of weeks with what we currently have.
My point is mainly I won't be surprised to see any metric for Texas rising.
The point of shutting down was to not overwhelm hospital capacity. It worked. We have testing and more PPE. Time to open up overall and take extra caution if you have risk factors. It is not going away any time soon.
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Yep, and I agree with you. I think you worded it better than me. Exactly, we haven't seen much so we only really have 'up' to go from here. My usage of 'mistake' was probably a little too inflammatory.
I'm fairly confident we have the resources in place to handle it. I just get a little concerned when considering the rural areas, for instance where I work. The hospital has 10 icu beds, 7 vents, county population of 118k. You have an opening, hit a few at risk people, and then you're at capacity. At the same time, we're starving out here.
I agree with KidDoc too. It's going to be a balancing act I think.
I'm fairly confident we have the resources in place to handle it. I just get a little concerned when considering the rural areas, for instance where I work. The hospital has 10 icu beds, 7 vents, county population of 118k. You have an opening, hit a few at risk people, and then you're at capacity. At the same time, we're starving out here.
I agree with KidDoc too. It's going to be a balancing act I think.
I don't think the uptick will be all that high.
I still say the majority of cases come from essential workers. They have already been out there every day.
Plus, The "fear" and lack of going out is still high.
I still say the majority of cases come from essential workers. They have already been out there every day.
Plus, The "fear" and lack of going out is still high.
Even those people going out are generally limiting exposure.beerad12man said:
I don't think the uptick will be all that high.
I still say the majority of cases come from essential workers. They have already been out there every day.
Plus, The "fear" and lack of going out is still high.
I recommend comparing the State data for Harris county to the county data for Harris County. Harris has started backdating cases to test date or symptom start so their curve shape looks significantly different than it does on the Texas data.
Unfortunately, their data is a pain to pull since it isn't available in Excel.
You can see the effect of the backdating over the past week.
Unfortunately, their data is a pain to pull since it isn't available in Excel.
You can see the effect of the backdating over the past week.
That's really nice! Thanks!
Link?
https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c0de71f8ea484b85bb5efcb7c07c6914Fitch said:
Link?
If you look at the disclaimer tab under the combined case count section, they talk about how they decide which date to use for a case depending on the dates available.
Top priority is disease onset date, lowest priority is death date (i.e. someone diagnosed post-mortem I presume).
For a brief time Austin also posted data in this form. But they stopped I suspect because it did not show a trend that justified the severe lock down. The information is useful but with test lags is harder to use for a trend.dragmagpuff said:https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c0de71f8ea484b85bb5efcb7c07c6914Fitch said:
Link?
If you look at the disclaimer tab under the combined case count section, they talk about how they decide which date to use for a case depending on the dates available.
Top priority is disease onset date, lowest priority is death date (i.e. someone diagnosed post-mortem I presume).
The greatest thing about that chart is that I know a ton of people in Houston, and I would say the majority have become more and more "open" or less socially distant throughout the last 3 weeks on that graph.
If we were going to see a rebound, even with a 10 day lag, I think you'd already see signs of it
If we were going to see a rebound, even with a 10 day lag, I think you'd already see signs of it
Alright been waiting for the IHME model to get enough data to feel like this comparison would be justified. Here is a chart comparing the average flu deaths per state over the last 5 years per the CDC compared with the projected COVID-19 deaths per the IHME model. Now that I have the excel setup, as the states continue to open up and the models change, I will be able to tract how these percentages change over time.
Interpret as you will.
Interpret as you will.
AggieFactor said:
Alright been waiting for the IHME model to get enough data to feel like this comparison would be justified. Here is a chart comparing the average flu deaths per state over the last 5 years per the CDC compared with the projected COVID-19 deaths per the IHME model. Now that I have the excel setup, as the states continue to open up and the models change, I will be able to tract how these percentages change over time.
Interpret as you will.
Is that projected covid deaths thru 12/31/20 or 8/1/20?
PJY, the IHME model is through 8/21/20.
I take that back it is 8/1/20. The projections run through 8/21/20 but the numbers stop increasing after 8/1/20.
Thanks for sharing!
AggieFactor said:
I take that back it is 8/1/20. The projections run through 8/21/20 but the numbers stop increasing after 8/1/20.
So maybe the estimated flu deaths should be thru August 1st? Just spitballing here. I appreciate the work that went into breaking it down for us.
I guess it will line up once the IHME adjusts for end of year #s. Carry on.
Very interesting data! I appreciate you putting it together.
I think we need to stop looking to the IHME model. The flaws in the model have been widely shared and the purpose of the model was never to estimate total deaths, it was only to estimate the peak of the virus (the model was made by a hospital system looking to plan for peak hospital resource need). All it's doing is curve fitting our out-break to make it look like other outbreaks that it already has data on, even though the underlying assumptions and conditions are constantly changing. The way it has swung and missed so completely on the shape o the backside of the curve and especially the uncertainty should tell you that we are beyond the point of the usefulness of the IHME model.
FiveThirtyEight has actually combined all of the models and talked about how they differ.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?ex_cid=rrpromo
I have found the most robust model to be:
https://covid19-projections.com/
FiveThirtyEight has actually combined all of the models and talked about how they differ.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?ex_cid=rrpromo
I have found the most robust model to be:
https://covid19-projections.com/
That FiveThirtyEight page is pretty handy. Thanks for sharing.
I was really happy to see a much lower death count this Tuesday.
This is from the Birx WH presser Mar 23rd. I track to see how well the initial job did. It appears they picked the right peak, but were too optimistic on the backside.
This is for NYC. In this one location the curve does fit what the IHME model predicted in shape. However, since the US was a series of overlapping outbreaks in multiple locations, that's probably why we have the flatter backside.
This is from the Birx WH presser Mar 23rd. I track to see how well the initial job did. It appears they picked the right peak, but were too optimistic on the backside.
This is for NYC. In this one location the curve does fit what the IHME model predicted in shape. However, since the US was a series of overlapping outbreaks in multiple locations, that's probably why we have the flatter backside.
And Spring break was happening, with the kids not in School it was decided to keep them home.KidDoc said:
The point of shutting down was to not overwhelm hospital capacity. It worked. We have testing and more PPE. Time to open up overall and take extra caution if you have risk factors. It is not going away any time soon.
Posted on another thread, but figure it belongs here. I haven't kept as up to date lately on this thread, SIAP.
Texas averages around 3500 flu/pneumonia deaths a year (3200 avg for 2014-2018 per AggieFactor). We've been logging around 3k deaths per month in Feb, Mar, & April for Flu + Pneumonia + Covid.
Source is CDC.
Texas averages around 3500 flu/pneumonia deaths a year (3200 avg for 2014-2018 per AggieFactor). We've been logging around 3k deaths per month in Feb, Mar, & April for Flu + Pneumonia + Covid.
Source is CDC.
What's the best site for tracking trends in TX? I poked around last night and couldn't find one I liked that clearly showed what I was looking for: tests, positive tests, current cases, deaths.
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