Fair points -- revised below. I'll use that type of daily reporting going forward. The peaks and troughs aren't as severe as with the testing data.
I'd like to think, or I guess assume, with the increased awareness and spotty mask usage we might see a slower uptick in new cases, spread, death etc after this opening compared to what we saw in March, going in to April. But definitely expect to see a slow and steady rise in all the above.plain_o_llama said:
Forgot about the delay in getting testing results returned and reported. I am curious to see the impact of the opening up of various businesses beginning the weekend of the 2nd. Don't know whether we will see anything but we have to account for time for incubation, and then some number of days of symptoms before people might seek testing. Then we have the delay for testing and reporting.
ETFan said:I'd like to think, or I guess assume, with the increased awareness and spotty mask usage we might see a slower uptick in new cases, spread, death etc after this opening compared to what we saw in March, going in to April. But definitely expect to see a slow and steady rise in all the above.plain_o_llama said:
Forgot about the delay in getting testing results returned and reported. I am curious to see the impact of the opening up of various businesses beginning the weekend of the 2nd. Don't know whether we will see anything but we have to account for time for incubation, and then some number of days of symptoms before people might seek testing. Then we have the delay for testing and reporting.
It will be interesting to see how quickly all the metrics increase. they obviously have to. Nothing has changed between now and February/March besides awareness.
Throwing a guess against the wall, come June 8th we'll know if opening up without a plan was a mistake. That gives 4 weeks for this thing to trickle back out in to the community and start spreading around freely again.
@Fitch, thanks for all the Texas charts.
Why did you throw out the rest of my reply?Keegan99 said:ETFan said:I'd like to think, or I guess assume, with the increased awareness and spotty mask usage we might see a slower uptick in new cases, spread, death etc after this opening compared to what we saw in March, going in to April. But definitely expect to see a slow and steady rise in all the above.plain_o_llama said:
Forgot about the delay in getting testing results returned and reported. I am curious to see the impact of the opening up of various businesses beginning the weekend of the 2nd. Don't know whether we will see anything but we have to account for time for incubation, and then some number of days of symptoms before people might seek testing. Then we have the delay for testing and reporting.
It will be interesting to see how quickly all the metrics increase. they obviously have to. Nothing has changed between now and February/March besides awareness.
Throwing a guess against the wall, come June 8th we'll know if opening up without a plan was a mistake. That gives 4 weeks for this thing to trickle back out in to the community and start spreading around freely again.
@Fitch, thanks for all the Texas charts.
They do? Georgia opened over two weeks ago and has not seen any metrics increase.
I don't want to derail this informative thread. We can check back on June 8th.Keegan99 said:
I quoted your entire reply.
But there was really not much worth responding to once you asserted that the metrics "have to" increase. Evidence from Georgia, to date, does not support the certainty of that claim.
I fail to see how this isn't the case. What I was trying to say in my other post was, will the awareness of the virus, mask usage, density of Texas, etc, be enough to keep the spread slowed enough that we can handle it.Beat40 said:
Here's the question for Texas - did we actually shut things down so early that so low of a percentage of the population got it that it's almost as if we're going to be starting from basically zero here no matter when or how we open up?
I'm agreeing with you overall. I simply get the feeling we shut down so early here in Texas that increases in numbers here in the state is inevitable, no matter when or what we do.ETFan said:I fail to see how this isn't the case. What I was trying to say in my other post was, will the awareness of the virus, mask usage, density of Texas, etc, be enough to keep the spread slowed enough that we can handle it.Beat40 said:
Here's the question for Texas - did we actually shut things down so early that so low of a percentage of the population got it that it's almost as if we're going to be starting from basically zero here no matter when or how we open up?
Did it magically go away? Is the heat and humidity really all we needed? I think it's inevitable, just a matter of how quickly and capacity.
That's why I threw out a June 8th timeline. I do think the things mentioned above will slow it down and it'll take more than 2 weeks to see a steady rise, if we're going to see one. Hopefully we won't.
Even those people going out are generally limiting exposure.beerad12man said:
I don't think the uptick will be all that high.
I still say the majority of cases come from essential workers. They have already been out there every day.
Plus, The "fear" and lack of going out is still high.
https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c0de71f8ea484b85bb5efcb7c07c6914Fitch said:
Link?
For a brief time Austin also posted data in this form. But they stopped I suspect because it did not show a trend that justified the severe lock down. The information is useful but with test lags is harder to use for a trend.dragmagpuff said:https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c0de71f8ea484b85bb5efcb7c07c6914Fitch said:
Link?
If you look at the disclaimer tab under the combined case count section, they talk about how they decide which date to use for a case depending on the dates available.
Top priority is disease onset date, lowest priority is death date (i.e. someone diagnosed post-mortem I presume).
AggieFactor said:
Alright been waiting for the IHME model to get enough data to feel like this comparison would be justified. Here is a chart comparing the average flu deaths per state over the last 5 years per the CDC compared with the projected COVID-19 deaths per the IHME model. Now that I have the excel setup, as the states continue to open up and the models change, I will be able to tract how these percentages change over time.
Interpret as you will.
AggieFactor said:
I take that back it is 8/1/20. The projections run through 8/21/20 but the numbers stop increasing after 8/1/20.
And Spring break was happening, with the kids not in School it was decided to keep them home.KidDoc said:
The point of shutting down was to not overwhelm hospital capacity. It worked. We have testing and more PPE. Time to open up overall and take extra caution if you have risk factors. It is not going away any time soon.