wessimo said:
Yikes, numbers not really looking great. Will be interesting to see what the curve does over the next couple of weeks.
Projections - like everybody expected - are certainly going up as the country opens up.
wessimo said:
Yikes, numbers not really looking great. Will be interesting to see what the curve does over the next couple of weeks.
Again, raw numbers are meaningless without context. The more we increase testing the more cases we will identify.PJYoung said:wessimo said:
Yikes, numbers not really looking great. Will be interesting to see what the curve does over the next couple of weeks.
Projections - like everybody expected - are certainly going up as the country opens up.
IHME just updated their projections. Went from 72k by August 4th to 134k by August 4th. Putting it more in line with most other models.HotardAg07 said:
It appears that the deaths data is lifting off the backend of the IHME model.
This model from https://covid19-projections.com/ appears to be doing a better job of predicting the uncertainty on the tail.
Day of the week trend basically in line with the last 4 weeks.
I like watching this one because in NYC they are tracking deaths on the day it happened, not on the day it was reported. As you can see here, the peak in actual deaths in NYC was about 17 days after the lock down. However, the reported peak looks later due to the lag in reporting.
Keegan99 said:
The new IHME model projects 968 deaths in Texas by May 4th, with a range of 931-1030.
The actual number is 884.
How is that catching up to reality?
Winner winner chicken dinner.MBAR said:Keegan99 said:
The new IHME model projects 968 deaths in Texas by May 4th, with a range of 931-1030.
The actual number is 884.
How is that catching up to reality?
Thats a pretty damn minor deviation in the modeling. They're not prescribing it what it should be, they're running it again from the start with some of the variables accounted for since we know what they are. Or at least that's how I'd approach it. Being off by ~50-150 is pretty meaningless, IMO. Focus on orders of magnitude.
perfect example of trying to make models do what they aren't designed to do. texas is a good example, and wyoming a great example of why complex statistics based modeling is incredibly difficult on small data sets. with small numbers and data sets one minor variation causes a large amount of noise in the data. the bigger the data set, the smoother that noise gets and the better modeling and forecasts gets. take this hympotehtical scenario. for 4 days in a row you have the following total cases:Keegan99 said:
Sure, if you want to give them a full decimal point, since we're between 100 and 10,000 deaths, I guess it's good?
Realty vs their center-line projection is off by roughly 10% right out of the gate, and reality is solidly outside their window of confidence.
Their model included all data through May 1st. The model vastly overshot a mere 72 hours into the future.
But if you want to see really bad modeling, look at their Wyoming forecast. Wyoming has had 7 deaths for well over a week. The IHME model is predicting 6 total deaths for Wyoming through August 4th, which would mean -1 deaths over the next three months.
That could be considered an improvement from a two weeks ago when the model was predicting 250+ deaths for Wyoming by the end of this month.
Those 15 states are Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, West Virginia, North Dakota, Idaho, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Oregon, Oklahoma, Utah, and Arizona.johnnyblaze36 said:
15 states had ZERO deaths today. It's time to get back to life as usual. Let any business that wants to open do so and all sports leagues should resume play by the weekend.
Premium said:
Looks like they doubled up USA total projected deaths:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Bruce Almighty said:Premium said:
Looks like they doubled up USA total projected deaths:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That 60-70K was never going to happen.
We've hit over 70k, right?Bruce Almighty said:Premium said:
Looks like they doubled up USA total projected deaths:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That 60-70K was never going to happen.
Fitch said:
Confirmed Active Cases Around Texas (5.09.20)
If you live in a green county, you have five or fewer known active cases in your county. Your a phase ahead of the rest of the state.
- Yellow: 6-100 active cases
- Orange: 100-200 active cases
- Red: 200-400 active cases
- Purple: 400-800 active cases
- Black: 800+ active cases
I am pretty sure they have a nursing home outbreak.agz win said:
Why is Walker County red?
agz win said:
Why is Walker County red?
Our percent of tests that are positive has dropped from ~10% to about ~6%. Doubling the number of tests didn't turn up very many additional positives. I don't think increased testing is going to get you where you want to go.Fitch said:
This last one struck me as strange. Fatality rates as a % of total known infections as been floating around 2.75%. It should be closer to ~1% based on global data. Probably means we're not testing enough, i.e. the denominator is too low.
That said, testing is also really ramping up. To date, Texas has performed and received results for 343,700 tests. There are an additional 133,400 pending tests right now, or and additional ~40% on top of those reported to date.