1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:
Honest question here....aren't we all isolating already??
Unfortunately, no we're not. That's the problem.
1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:
Honest question here....aren't we all isolating already??
1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:
Honest question here....aren't we all isolating already?? If this thing is as contagious as some say, I find it hard to believe that say, in a family of 5, if one person has it, everybody has it. That's why I don't understand necessarily why it matters so much if you know you're positive or not....UNLESS you have other comorbidities etc. Self-quarantine as mandated...
I'm in Tacoma. We started school closings as of the 13th which was a bit earlier and, in general, we'd already started to distance before "social distancing" had become a term. People just stayed home anyway, so the closing and restrictions simply added to that existing routine.VaultingChemist said:
I am very curious on what measures that the state of Washington has taken. Its numbers are very encouraging.
Testing testing testing. We are barely testing still in most of the country. There was a story out of Houston today that they will run out of tests by tomorrow if they aren't resupplied. I am guessing we are still a good 2-3 weeks away from testing in force all over. The ramp up has been painfully slow.Romello said:
From the log scale plot, the us is on the backside of this pandemic as the rate of deaths is starting to decrease. If this continues we are more than 1/2 through and could top off with deaths no higher than 1,000 - 1,500 in the usa.
Romello said:
From the log scale plot, the us is on the backside of this pandemic as the rate of deaths is starting to decrease. If this continues we are more than 1/2 through and could top off with deaths no higher than 1,000 - 1,500 in the usa.
It all depends on supply vs demand on vents honestly. If the local rate of critical illness exceeds supply deaths spike up quickly.UncleNateFitch said:
So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?
That's really what you think? After reading everything that is out there right now?UncleNateFitch said:
So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?
we don't have anywhere near the data to justify the statement you just made. S. Korea's CFR has increased 2.15x since it started its rise after bottoming out 3 weeks ago. If USA follows their trend we will be at 2.68% 3 weeks from now.UncleNateFitch said:
So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?
By the method the WHO was using to come up with the 3.4% death rate ( using only deaths vs closed cases) it would now be over 50% since there have been more deaths than officially closed cases in the US. Which just confirms how ridiculous the early numbers were.UncleNateFitch said:
So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?
I assume you mean .5%-1%? if so, that's still a large number if this were to be allowed to spread. at infection rates similar to swine flu, 0.5% would put COVID at the #3 cause of death in the USA this year, and 1% would put it in the running for the #1 spotAgnzona said:
When all is said and done and they finally get a good estimate of exposed people we are looking at .05%-1%! I Said that 2 weeks ago as a WAG, now id' bet money on it!
Proposition Joe said:1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:
Honest question here....aren't we all isolating already?? If this thing is as contagious as some say, I find it hard to believe that say, in a family of 5, if one person has it, everybody has it. That's why I don't understand necessarily why it matters so much if you know you're positive or not....UNLESS you have other comorbidities etc. Self-quarantine as mandated...
No, we're not all isolating.
I'd venture to guess 15-20% of Americans that have been told to "shelter-in-place" (or some form of it) are still coming within 6 feet of contact with 10+ people a day.
Just came from a walk out on the trails, I'd say over the span of 30 minutes I saw 50+ instances of people within 6 feet of other people (people they weren't "with")... Even had a lady setup in a lawn chair by the trails that I'd say hundreds of people passed within 6 feet of.
When you aren't clear to the American public and take half-measures all along the way, people A) don't take it seriously and B) don't stay informed.
A lot of America... A LOT... Still think if they aren't coughing they aren't a carrier.
3.4% was just the mortality rate of the world at the time, dividing the total deaths by total cases at the time that number was floated. It wasn't a prediction, it was a calculation. At the time, all of the experts said that we would expect the number to come down over time and that the mortality rate varied wildly by location, with Italy near 8% and South Korea under 1%. The death rate by age group has held up well across all countries, as I posted on another thread.UncleNateFitch said:
So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?
Wife of Chas Satterfield said:Proposition Joe said:1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:
Honest question here....aren't we all isolating already?? If this thing is as contagious as some say, I find it hard to believe that say, in a family of 5, if one person has it, everybody has it. That's why I don't understand necessarily why it matters so much if you know you're positive or not....UNLESS you have other comorbidities etc. Self-quarantine as mandated...
No, we're not all isolating.
I'd venture to guess 15-20% of Americans that have been told to "shelter-in-place" (or some form of it) are still coming within 6 feet of contact with 10+ people a day.
Just came from a walk out on the trails, I'd say over the span of 30 minutes I saw 50+ instances of people within 6 feet of other people (people they weren't "with")... Even had a lady setup in a lawn chair by the trails that I'd say hundreds of people passed within 6 feet of.
When you aren't clear to the American public and take half-measures all along the way, people A) don't take it seriously and B) don't stay informed.
A lot of America... A LOT... Still think if they aren't coughing they aren't a carrier.
If you had every fourth person stopping and kissing her then yes you'd have a problem. But walking past her within 6 feet I doubt you would catch any cooties.
Likewise with the people passing each other.
HotardAg07 said:
I get that we're all angry with what's happening with the economy. Every day I feel a pall of depression hang over me when I see $20 oil and what's happened in the stock market. But that is NOT an excuse to minimize what all of the infectious disease experts have been telling us about this virus!
Wife of Chas Satterfield said:Whatever. You said she did not interact and only sat there. Her (un)actions fits the definition of social distancing. Any reasonable person understands her sitting there meets the definition. I am done with your overly illogical dramatic display.Proposition Joe said:
A short study of recommendations and critical thought in your mind turns "maintain 6 feet from others when possible" into "its ok to sit in a high traffic area where hundreds of people passing within a few feet as long as a lot of people don't kiss you"?
That's not critical thought. That's literally taking what the CDC has asked you to do and saying "well I don't think they REALLY mean that".
You are part of the problem.
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And besides what are your medical qualifications?
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
the point though is not that this woman is personally at risk of contracting COVID, but is an example of people openly and blatantly disregarding recommendations and requests from the medical community and government entities designed to slow/stop the spread. its not just her.
Not true. At all. I think we may see many deaths. All while I shelter in place.Proposition Joe said:Wife of Chas Satterfield said:Whatever. You said she did not interact and only sat there. Her (un)actions fits the definition of social distancing. Any reasonable person understands her sitting there meets the definition. I am done with your overly illogical dramatic display.Proposition Joe said:
A short study of recommendations and critical thought in your mind turns "maintain 6 feet from others when possible" into "its ok to sit in a high traffic area where hundreds of people passing within a few feet as long as a lot of people don't kiss you"?
That's not critical thought. That's literally taking what the CDC has asked you to do and saying "well I don't think they REALLY mean that".
You are part of the problem.
You'll come back tomorrow and interject into another thread, and then exit with "I am done with the drama" or "if the virus gets me, it gets me".
A quick search of your post history proves that.
You aren't actually looking for answers or reasonable debate, you're simply looking to downplay this thing at every turn. And that's certainly your prerogative, but don't be surprised when no one actually takes you seriously.
[url=https://health.clevelandclinic.org/covid-19-understanding-quarantine-isolation-and-social-distancing-in-a-pandemic/#][/url]Quote:
Other protective measures
Quarantine isn't the only way to protect yourself during an epidemic. Dr. Gordon also recommends:Being cooped up inside may seem unbearable. But the time WILL pass, and your forced staycation may save lives.
- Social distancing: Social distancing involves avoiding large gatherings. If you have to be around people, keep 6 feet (2 meters) between you when possible. "Social distancing is pretty much like using common sense," Dr. Gordon says. "We don't realize how interconnected we are until we're asked to avoid people." But he notes that terms like "mass gatherings" or "congregate settings" are vague. They're used to describe things like shopping centers, movie theaters or stadiums. But how many people together is too many? "That's a moving target," he says. There's no official definition, though the CDC recently advised that all U.S. events of 10+ people should be cancelled or held virtually.
- Staying calm: "While fear is normal, educating yourself is a great way to counterbalance your anxiety," says Dr. Gordon. "Stay informed from reliable sources but not too intensely. Hyper-fixating on the news can be just as detrimental."
- Cooperating with the authorities: Following quarantines and other public health mandates help slow and stop the spread of contagious diseases.
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Not true. At all. I think we may see many deaths. All while I shelter in place.
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I think it's unnecessary to be creating fear and making assertions not based on fact or common sense.
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You cannot even rebut my posts other that ZOMG you know nothing about pandemics, you are not a medical professional
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I passed within 3 feet of a woman on the bike path today she must be a super spreader.
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I apologize in advance that I don't share your hair on fire alarm.
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Case in point you made a claim that passing within 3 feet of a woman violated social distancing. That is over-reacting.
UncleNateFitch said:
So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?
Proposition Joe said:
You're really leaving this time, right?