1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:

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Honest question here....aren't we all isolating already??

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Unfortunately, no we're not. That's the problem.

From the log scale plot, the us is on the backside of this pandemic as the rate of deaths is starting to decrease. If this continues we are more than 1/2 through and could top off with deaths no higher than 1,000 - 1,500 in the usa.

Yes, my high school friend who teachers community college classes in you state had already switched to online before Texas was even talking about school closures By at least two weeks.

Romello said:

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From the log scale plot, the us is on the backside of this pandemic as the rate of deaths is starting to decrease. If this continues we are more than 1/2 through and could top off with deaths no higher than 1,000 - 1,500 in the usa.

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Testing testing testing. We are barely testing still in most of the country. There was a story out of Houston today that they will run out of tests by tomorrow if they aren't resupplied. I am guessing we are still a good 2-3 weeks away from testing in force all over. The ramp up has been painfully slow.


Consider New York is about 2 weeks from their peak of new infections and 4 weeks from their peak of hospitalizations so our nation's biggest driver of this pandemic is a good month away from peaking out on daily deaths. Cuomo said 2 to 3 weeks but it looks like it will be closer to 2 thankfully.

And 90% of the rest of the country hasn't even begun to test in force so we're not sure where the other hot spots are. The initial forecasts of this peaking in the United States sometime in May still sounds right and with luck if a therapy is approved for widespread use we will be able to dodge it spiking again this fall.

@LukeBornn: I've been curious to see how COVID-19 compares to some other recent epidemics, so I scoured the web for data and made an animation. Pretty startling how steep/early the COVID-19 growth curve is right now. https://t.co/j3HwY39b6J

Infection data:



Daily New Infections



Deaths



New Deaths Daily


NY Hospitalized

updated

• Unfortunately it looks like S. Korea's CFR rise has been accelerating a bit over the last few days. Not a good trend
• Looks like USA's CFR has indeed started to bend back upwards.

Also, I made a new thread specifically for looking at covid numbers as compared to flu to try to keep that out of all the other threads. I'll keep those plots updated as well.
Flu v. COVID-19

So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?

UncleNateFitch said:

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So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?

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It all depends on supply vs demand on vents honestly. If the local rate of critical illness exceeds supply deaths spike up quickly.

On the world counter 85% resolved 15% dead. Remember it takes 14-21 days from exposure to death most of the time from current data.

When all is said and done and they finally get a good estimate of exposed people we are looking at .05%-1%! I Said that 2 weeks ago as a WAG, now id' bet money on it!

UncleNateFitch said:

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So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?

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we don't have anywhere near the data to justify the statement you just made. S. Korea's CFR has increased 2.15x since it started its rise after bottoming out 3 weeks ago. If USA follows their trend we will be at 2.68% 3 weeks from now.

UncleNateFitch said:

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So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?

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By the method the WHO was using to come up with the 3.4% death rate ( using only deaths vs closed cases) it would now be over 50% since there have been more deaths than officially closed cases in the US. Which just confirms how ridiculous the early numbers were.

Agnzona said:

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When all is said and done and they finally get a good estimate of exposed people we are looking at .05%-1%! I Said that 2 weeks ago as a WAG, now id' bet money on it!

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I assume you mean .5%-1%? if so, that's still a large number if this were to be allowed to spread. at infection rates similar to swine flu, 0.5% would put COVID at the #3 cause of death in the USA this year, and 1% would put it in the running for the #1 spot

Proposition Joe said:

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1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:

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Honest question here....aren't we all isolating already?? If this thing is as contagious as some say, I find it hard to believe that say, in a family of 5, if one person has it, everybody has it. That's why I don't understand necessarily why it matters so much if you know you're positive or not....UNLESS you have other comorbidities etc. Self-quarantine as mandated...

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No, we're not all isolating.

I'd venture to guess 15-20% of Americans that have been told to "shelter-in-place" (or some form of it) are still coming within 6 feet of contact with 10+ people a day.

Just came from a walk out on the trails, I'd say over the span of 30 minutes I saw 50+ instances of people within 6 feet of other people (people they weren't "with")... Even had a lady setup in a lawn chair by the trails that I'd say hundreds of people passed within 6 feet of.

When you aren't clear to the American public and take half-measures all along the way, people A) don't take it seriously and B) don't stay informed.

A lot of America... A LOT... Still think if they aren't coughing they aren't a carrier.

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If you had every fourth person stopping and kissing her then yes you'd have a problem. But walking past her within 6 feet I doubt you would catch any cooties.

Likewise with the people passing each other.

UncleNateFitch said:

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So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?

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3.4% was just the mortality rate of the world at the time, dividing the total deaths by total cases at the time that number was floated. It wasn't a prediction, it was a calculation. At the time, all of the experts said that we would expect the number to come down over time and that the mortality rate varied wildly by location, with Italy near 8% and South Korea under 1%. The death rate by age group has held up well across all countries, as I posted on another thread.


Imperial College and the CDC did not use 3.4% death rates in their analysis, but they still predicted as many as 2.2MM and 1.7MM deaths in their worst case scenario where we "do nothing" and allow the virus to take its course we would during any normal flu season. The numbers are so high since we have no immunity or vaccine and the virus is more contagious than H1N1 or other flus, it would be expected to propogate through a large percentage of the US population. If 60% of the population got the coronavirus and deaths happened according to the death chart above, we WOULD lose 2.2MM.

And that's not even taking into account the fact that if we allowed it to happen without doing anything, due to the high hospitalization rates even amongst young people, we would have overwhelmed our hospital system, ICU capabilities, ventilator capabilities, doctors and nurses, and our death rate would have spiked above typical course of treatment and people who should be surviving would have died as a result. It would have also impacted all sorts of other sick people who rely on the hospital for intensive care, as the resources of the hospital would have been strained.

Of course there is uncertainty, but our elected leaders were presented with a range of outcomes from 200,000 deaths to 1.7MM deaths by the CDC and they chose this course of action accordingly. As Dr. Fauci always says, I hope they'll say in the end we overreacted.

I get that we're all angry with what's happening with the economy. Every day I feel a pall of depression hang over me when I see $20 oil and what's happened in the stock market. But that is NOT an excuse to minimize what all of the infectious disease experts have been telling us about this virus!

Proposition Joe said:

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Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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A short study of recommendations and critical thought in your mind turns "maintain 6 feet from others when possible" into "its ok to sit in a high traffic area where hundreds of people passing within a few feet as long as a lot of people don't kiss you"?

That's not critical thought. That's literally taking what the CDC has asked you to do and saying "well I don't think they REALLY mean that".

You are part of the problem.

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Whatever. You said she did not interact and only sat there. Her (un)actions fits the definition of social distancing. Any reasonable person understands her sitting there meets the definition. I am done with your overly illogical dramatic display.

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You'll come back tomorrow and interject into another thread, and then exit with "I am done with the drama" or "if the virus gets me, it gets me".

A quick search of your post history proves that.

You aren't actually looking for answers or reasonable debate, you're simply looking to downplay this thing at every turn. And that's certainly your prerogative, but don't be surprised when no one actually takes you seriously.

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Not true. At all. I think we may see many deaths. All while I shelter in place.

I think it's unnecessary to be creating fear and making assertions not based on fact or common sense.

You cannot even rebut my posts other that ZOMG you know nothing about pandemics, you are not a medical professional, I passed within 3 feet of a woman on the bike path today she must be a super spreader.

I apologize in advance that I don't share your hair on fire alarm.

Here another thing about social distancing from the Cleveland Clinic:

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Other protective measures
Quarantine isn't the only way to protect yourself during an epidemic. Dr. Gordon also recommends:

• Social distancing: Social distancing involves avoiding large gatherings. If you have to be around people, keep 6 feet (2 meters) between you when possible. "Social distancing is pretty much like using common sense," Dr. Gordon says. "We don't realize how interconnected we are until we're asked to avoid people." But he notes that terms like "mass gatherings" or "congregate settings" are vague. They're used to describe things like shopping centers, movie theaters or stadiums. But how many people together is too many? "That's a moving target," he says. There's no official definition, though the CDC recently advised that all U.S. events of 10+ people should be cancelled or held virtually.
• Staying calm: "While fear is normal, educating yourself is a great way to counterbalance your anxiety," says Dr. Gordon. "Stay informed from reliable sources but not too intensely. Hyper-fixating on the news can be just as detrimental."
• Cooperating with the authorities: Following quarantines and other public health mandates help slow and stop the spread of contagious diseases.

Being cooped up inside may seem unbearable. But the time WILL pass, and your forced staycation may save lives.

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[url=https://health.clevelandclinic.org/covid-19-understanding-quarantine-isolation-and-social-distancing-in-a-pandemic/#][/url]
https://health.clevelandclinic.org/covid-19-understanding-quarantine-isolation-and-social-distancing-in-a-pandemic/

Have a great day!

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Case in point you made a claim that passing within 3 feet of a woman violated social distancing. That is over-reacting.

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No, I stated a woman setting up a lawn chair within a few feet of hundreds of people passing on the trails was violating social distancing.

Apparently you just did not read the post properly before responding.

The CDC suggests if you are around other people keep a social distance of 6 feet if possible. This applies to you. This isn't open to your critical thinking or interpretation that because you stayed at a Holiday Inn last night you are probably fine being close to people and that the guidelines are just for other people. The guidelines are for you too.

Do your part. Don't assume it doesn't apply to you or isn't really that serious. People with that line of thinking are part of the reason why we've had to enact more stricter guidelines. People don't listen. You don't listen. Try listening.

Do your part. That's the last I'll say on it.

UncleNateFitch said:

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So we're not going to be anywhere near the 3.4% death rate used to justify all of this 2 weeks ago?

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Can we leave this discussion to forum 16? We are looking at a wall of death heading our way. Just focus on what the data shows please.