Case Fatality Rate
Updated. and quoted since i added some new plots and observations.BlackGoldAg2011 said:
Here is a graph i have been keeping, to track the changing CFR for each country above 5k cases. i'll update this post as i update my graphs. Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Data updated 0 GMT 3/23/2020
my interesting observations:
3/19/2020:3/23/2020:
- China and S. Korea are the only two that have exited exponential growth so should be settling in on their final numbers. looks like 4% for china and 1%-1.5% for S. Korea (who still has 76% of its cases as active)
- The US is the only country in exponential growth with a declining CFR (since it was asked, CFR is Case Fatality rate, or simply the number of deaths divided by the number of cases). This could possibly be in part due to the fact that our early data skewed high due to the first tracked outbreak being in a nursing home. It looks like our final number and S. Korea's might meet.
- Germany's number is a confusing anomaly. They are about 1 day ahead of us on the daily total case curve. Have almost no deaths. One possible explanation is that maybe their outbreak started in younger communities. I'm very interested to watch their number as they only really started having deaths a few days ago (3/15/2020)
- Two more countries have joined the 5k+ but i haven't added them yet (UK and Switzerland). I'll add them once they pass S. Korea.
- I added a CFR plot based on days past the 100th case to get a better look at how the countries compare to each other, not just where they are today. From that it looks like about 3 basic groupings with the upper tier (Italy, Iran, and Spain) looking like things are going to be really rough for them over the coming month. i think i read that for those cases ending in death, the average time to death after exposure was 17.5 days
- With S. Korea down to only 66% active cases, I'm feeling pretty good about my original prediction
- USA has zero separation between the active and total cases line but the CFR curve seems to be bottoming out. This would lead me to believe that we should expect our CFR to start climbing again sometime over the next week. Based on our volume of cases and looking at the shape of S. Korea's curve, i'm going to predict we settle in the 2%-2.25% range but that is a very loose guess at this point with a lot of variables still shaking out
- Finally I added a new plot showing total cases vs days since the 100th case on a semi-log plot. I did this because adding new data this morning it seemed like a lot of countries had begun to see a drop in new cases. This plot confirms that. We will see if it holds true this week or was just a data lag due to the weekend, but with the exception of one, every country on my list has fallen off exponential growth. (for those unfamiliar, on a semi-log plot, exponential growth is a straight line)
- Which brings me to my final observation of the morning. The USA. Based on the latest data update, we are still solidly exponential at a rate of 10x increase every 8 days. This is with widespread testing only just now rolling out, so i wouldn't expect to start see effects from that for another day or two. At this rate we will have surpassed China (their reported numbers at least) by my Thursday update, and broken 100k by Friday. I realize there are a lot of factors here, but this trend cause me to really hope our efforts as a country towards the end of this last week prove to be enough to start bending our curve down soon.
Not saying this is wrong, because the two things are in no way mutually exclusive, but I'm seeing reports that Germany's outbreak may very well have begun in a population that skewed young and healthy:Exsurge Domine said:BlackGoldAg2011 said:
Here is a graph i have been keeping, to track the changing CFR for each country above 5k cases. i'll update this post as i update my graphs. Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Data updated 0 GMT 3/19/2020
my interesting observations:
3/19/2020:
- China and S. Korea are the only two that have exited exponential growth so should be settling in on their final numbers. looks like 4% for china and 1%-1.5% for S. Korea (who still has 76% of its cases as active)
- The US is the only country in exponential growth with a declining CFR. This could possibly be in part due to the fact that our early data skewed high due to the first tracked outbreak being in a nursing home. It looks like our final number and S. Korea's might meet.
- Germany's number is a confusing anomaly. They are about 1 day ahead of us on the daily total case curve. Have almost no deaths. On possible explanation is that maybe their outbreak started in younger communities. I'm very interested to watch their number as they only really started having deaths a few days ago (3/15/2020)
I saw a random high follower tweet post that they're using that hcq-azithromycin cocktail in at the very beginning
Quote:
There is one major difference between Germany's Covid-19 demographic and that of the pan-European hot zone of Italy. The first is that the onslaught of Covid-19 arrived in the teeth of Europe's ski season, so that many Germans who initially contracted the virus did so in Italy, which is whyfor the moment70% of all reported cases in Germany remain among the young, or more broadly, among the not-elderly, between the ages of 20 and 50.
Quote:
According to German medical professionals, and no less a medical statistician than the President of the Robert Koch Institut, Lothar Wieler, on Friday morning, March 20, it was Germany's good fortune that Covid-19 simply began among the young.
can you provide some insight into what data the items I bolded are coming from? So far this thread has remained free of the bickering over course of action so i don't want to derail, but from a data perspective i am genuinely curious about these points. I am no epidemiologist but I do look at large data sets for a living. I don't see where these conclusion come from looking at the data, so I genuinely want to know if there is something I am missing. To specifically address each:FrioAg 00 said:
US case fatality rate currently at 1.3% and likely to fall, per the CDC Director speaking to my hospital right now.
China numbers (which must be questioned) falling in around 4%, and unlikely to fall much more given the flat and declining case volumes. Wuhan today released their travel restrictions for those who have either recovered or had a negative test.
Italy currently at 9%, mostly sites to the fastest ramp up and overrun of hospitals and a very old population.
My prediction remains unchanged at 0.5% here in the US, and 1.5% worldwide.
Not to mention much less population densityFrioAg 00 said:
The flatten the curve objective also deals with much different realities in different places
For example, in the US our ICU beds per capita are 2x what Italy has, and the percent of our population over 65 is also 13% compared to 23%.
So per "high risk" person in our population, our resources are almost 400% higher
when you look at the lines on the graphs, up is bad, down is good.KlinkerAg11 said:
BlackGoldAg2011 said:when you look at the lines on the graphs, up is bad, down is good.KlinkerAg11 said:
NASAg03 said:
Looking at the plots, I'm not particularly impressed with the effects that lockdown is having. I get it might take more than 10 days to show major effects, but still. UK. was already trending towards a slowdown in deaths BEFORE lockdown,
Where does it say they are practicing herd immunity?davido said:
Curious about the Netherlands. They're practicing herd immunity. I think is great thy someone is experimenting with it for future knowledge. I would have expected their cases to grow more, but they're actually down the last two days.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/
davido said:
Curious about the Netherlands. They're practicing herd immunity. I think is great thy someone is experimenting with it for future knowledge. I would have expected their cases to grow more, but they're actually down the last two days.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/
Quote:
Rutte also mentioned the possibility of herd immunity, which was immediately met with backlash from experts who say deliberately exposing as many people to the virus to build an immune population is not a good idea.
Rutte quickly clarified that herd immunity would be a side effect of the country's approach and not the focus. However, infectious disease expert Natalie Dean says that the safest way we're likely to develop herd immunity against COVID-19 isn't naturally over time, but through a vaccine.
P.U.T.U said:
My friend in the UK has all the symptoms but cannot get tested since they do not know of any contact with someone who has it. About half the people that live around them have the same issue. Their numbers will skyrocket in the next few days.
Thanks for posting. The charts showing all of the states are interesting and should help drive home the point that it's not just New York that is in trouble - they're just further along. If states don't take action to bend their curves, most of them will end up in similar circumstances. Next up seem to be New Jersey, Michigan, Louisiana, Illinois and Florida.lazuras_dc said:
http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR0RsuuSqsswJnkGyAIqu-X249Lh9iyxaiEPP6ShR5mT2l8IyBmAN_VvFjc
More interesting charts