22 points is in. Need one win and one draw. Two home games and two away games left. It's still right there.
***Official USMNT-WCQ Octagonal Thread***
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Last: 2 yr ago by cruzdoggie
Ugh. Mexico is sucking right now.
Panama can get to 23 with a win against Honduras at home and a meaningless game for Canada at the end.
It fell off, but if we win both home games we are at 24 and should be in.
Fair point. I wasn't suggesting mathematically clinch just the probabilities of outcomes. Agree that 23 points and not losing at home vs. Panama is best course of action.
This all goes to my earlier fear of the CR match mattering, which is now more likely than yesterday.
Costa Rica plays Jamaica, Panama plays Mexico next.
If we don't win our next one and CR does, or heaven forbid Panama gets points in MXC, it's time to start worrying.
Remaining schedules (not counting Canada, they are in now almost surely). And they play at SLV. If they win and get some help they can all but clinch a spot, when you start doing the math and scenarios it's nearly impossible they don't get in. Which means no favors the rest of the way from them probably.
Mex - H- Panama. H-USA. A-HON H-SLV
Panama - A-MEX, H-HON, A-USA, H-CAN
CR - A-JAM, H-Canada, A-SLV, H-USA
US - H- HON, A-MEX, H-PAN, A-CR
All that is why this next game is do or die. Mexico could easily go 4-0, so take them out for a moment.
Lose our next one or even tie, CR beats Jamaica and they are two or 3 points behind us with us still having to go there and Mexico. And legit worry, because they also have a winnable one against SLV and maybe a Canada team phoning it in. Panama is likely on 20 after game 12, with us likely on 18 or 19 in that scenario. Then we likely need results (min 4 but maybe 6 points) in our last 2 to make it, not even talking playoffs, just to make top 4.
The rosier scenario:
If we get 6 points, CR would have to win out to pass us (assuming three of those aren't in San Jose).
If we beat Panama, they would need to win two of their other three and have us lose all three.
If we win both home games they would have to sweep the other 3.
Bottom line we need Canada to keep trying, it would help a lot. And we need desperately to win this next game. Preferably by a few goals.
/nerd worry rant.
Costa Rica plays Jamaica, Panama plays Mexico next.
If we don't win our next one and CR does, or heaven forbid Panama gets points in MXC, it's time to start worrying.
Remaining schedules (not counting Canada, they are in now almost surely). And they play at SLV. If they win and get some help they can all but clinch a spot, when you start doing the math and scenarios it's nearly impossible they don't get in. Which means no favors the rest of the way from them probably.
Mex - H- Panama. H-USA. A-HON H-SLV
Panama - A-MEX, H-HON, A-USA, H-CAN
CR - A-JAM, H-Canada, A-SLV, H-USA
US - H- HON, A-MEX, H-PAN, A-CR
All that is why this next game is do or die. Mexico could easily go 4-0, so take them out for a moment.
Lose our next one or even tie, CR beats Jamaica and they are two or 3 points behind us with us still having to go there and Mexico. And legit worry, because they also have a winnable one against SLV and maybe a Canada team phoning it in. Panama is likely on 20 after game 12, with us likely on 18 or 19 in that scenario. Then we likely need results (min 4 but maybe 6 points) in our last 2 to make it, not even talking playoffs, just to make top 4.
The rosier scenario:
If we get 6 points, CR would have to win out to pass us (assuming three of those aren't in San Jose).
If we beat Panama, they would need to win two of their other three and have us lose all three.
If we win both home games they would have to sweep the other 3.
Bottom line we need Canada to keep trying, it would help a lot. And we need desperately to win this next game. Preferably by a few goals.
/nerd worry rant.
Dang, you have me worried…
Bottom line, we need to win both remaining home games. Then it would take a lot of resutls to go a certain way to prevent us from being 3rd or higher.
Mexico ties Panama, we beat Honduras = USA 21, Mex 19, Pan 18PatAg said:
So, we want Mexico to beat Panama and we beat honduras = Mex21, USA21, Pan 17
Then I think you would guess Mex beat us, Pan beat Hond = Mex 24, USA 21, Pan 20
We beat Pan, Mexico tie honduras on the road = Mex 24, USA 24, Pan 20
Panama beats canada at home = 24+, 24+, 23
last game doesnt matter in this scenario
Could obviously be a lot of variables in there, but likely if we hold serve at home against Hondueras and Panama, the last game doesn't matter.
Mex Beats us, Pan beats Honduras = Mex 22, USA 21, Pan 21
We beat Pan, Mex beats hon on road = Mex 25, USA 24, Pan 21
Pan beats Can, we lose @ CRC = Mex 24, USA 24, Pan 24, we likely have higher GD and advance
Pan beats Mex @mex, we beat Hon =Usa 21, Pan 20, Mex 18
Mex beats u, Pan beats Hon =Pan 23, USA 21, Mex 21
We beat Pan, Mex beats hond on road = USA 24, Mex 24, Pan 23
Last round really matters, but this seems unlikely
So we NEED to win this last game of this window @ home, and we NEED to win @home against Panama. Dropping the points @home to Canada hurt us, and it would have been nice to return the favor on Sunday with a tie. Now we truly need to take all 6 remaining home points, and taking a point at Mexico would all but lock us in. It is a distinct possibility we go to Costa Rica potentially needing a tie to secure advancement. Normally you would expect Panama to lose @Canada, but you never know what CONCACAF teams will do to screw us over in the last game of qualifying.
I don't disagree but to greatly simplify what I was saying, let's assume 5 points and 23 total is our magic number (odds say we are 90 + percent at that point).
Win this week and we only need to find two points in three games, including a home game.
Tie and we need to find four points, which would mean even with a win vs Panama we need a road tie at one of our toughest two road venues historically.
Lose, and we still need five points, which means at least two on the road, and that's assuming a Panama win.
And in those last two scenarios, a Panama win would be nearly 100 percent required to qualify, which would make that game beyond pressure packed, and no one wants it to come to that.
So to me, this is the biggest game in 4 years. Not really sure it's even close.
Win this week and we only need to find two points in three games, including a home game.
Tie and we need to find four points, which would mean even with a win vs Panama we need a road tie at one of our toughest two road venues historically.
Lose, and we still need five points, which means at least two on the road, and that's assuming a Panama win.
And in those last two scenarios, a Panama win would be nearly 100 percent required to qualify, which would make that game beyond pressure packed, and no one wants it to come to that.
So to me, this is the biggest game in 4 years. Not really sure it's even close.
And one last post for the night, since I've done all the doomsday ones, best case:
We win this week
Mexico wins over Panama
Jamaica wins or ties CR
A win over Panama clinches a spot without having to worry about the trip to San Jose. So let's hope for that.
We win this week
Mexico wins over Panama
Jamaica wins or ties CR
A win over Panama clinches a spot without having to worry about the trip to San Jose. So let's hope for that.
Pepi needs to start our remaining games. Once on the field we looked way more dynamic going forward. He is bright, has great movement off the ball and isn't afraid to get stuck in. If we are to grind out some wins and maintain our 2nd place spot we need him in the line up.
Hire Jesse Marsch already and be done with it. Can't watch another Greggggg led USMNT
At the end of the day, it is completely unacceptable that we are doing this type of math with 4 matches to go with the talent gap that there is.
I think some of y'all might be over-reacting a bit... but I love you for it.
Any news on Tyler Adams?
meh. at least 3 of the last 4 (maybe not Mex) will continue to do what El Salvador and Canada - and everyone in the octagonal really - just did - park the bus. We will continue to look like the far-superior squad, but struggle to break through, and we will continue to be susceptible to a counter. However, no one will defend us as well as Canada did. I think we'll be fine. And I agree with some posts (can't remember if earlier on this thread or on the match thread), just qualify and we'll be better suited to face non-concacaf international competition in Qatar.
v Canada, cut down that early 7' mental error goal conceded and it's a 0-0 draw. Hell, if Canada keeper doesn't make an amazing save on Weston's header, and we had either a 1-1 draw or 1-0 win with 3 points and an away goal. We need some more ambitious forward movement and killer instinct up top - need to take more chances if you want to break through against an opponent parking the bus like that and I have to believe Greggg laid into Turner and the central players who fell asleep on that early goal off our own goal kick. Again, Honduras on Wednesday at home, plus Panama and CRC to end it in March shouldn't be as difficult as Canada just was.
v Canada, cut down that early 7' mental error goal conceded and it's a 0-0 draw. Hell, if Canada keeper doesn't make an amazing save on Weston's header, and we had either a 1-1 draw or 1-0 win with 3 points and an away goal. We need some more ambitious forward movement and killer instinct up top - need to take more chances if you want to break through against an opponent parking the bus like that and I have to believe Greggg laid into Turner and the central players who fell asleep on that early goal off our own goal kick. Again, Honduras on Wednesday at home, plus Panama and CRC to end it in March shouldn't be as difficult as Canada just was.
Jesse Marsch would kind of be the anti-Berhalter from what some of you hope about Gregg's style. I think Marsch would feast on CONCACAF and then get blown out by 5 goals in world cups to European and South American teams trying to press the ball against teams with technical and fast players.
So Zimmerman picked up a hammy in training. Adams likely has a hammy. Richards hurt his foot/ankle. Miles Robinson is turning into a disaster.
Thankfully we are playing a terrible Honduras.
Thankfully we are playing a terrible Honduras.
Furlock Bones said:
Thankfully we are playing a terrible Honduras on a frozen slab of ice in subarctic temperatures.
I watched a good bit of Honduras v Canada last Thursday. With Elis back, HON looks a lot better than they did in some earlier WCQ windows last fall. They were unlucky with an early OG, then they were pressing and attacking - very dangerous numerous times in 2H. Canada got a late counter to seal it for them but it felt like Honduras was going to equalize at any moment for most of that half. I didn't watch Honduras yesterday, but looks like they registered 18 shots vs El Salvador in their defeat. Hopefully the cold weather and home US crowd helps a lot on Wednesday. I think we'll be fine, but this is no walk in the park.
They also got eliminated from contention by the loss yesterday, so maybe that's a positive for us?
This will only be a factor really for this cycle, but a CONCACAF where Canada is actually really good probably doesn't have enough guaranteed slots.
Exactly. The antithesis of Zardes, which I pointed out on the match thread and why I was so frustrated with Zardes' start yesterday. Pepi is that dog we need on the field a la Dempsey. I don't GAF if he isn't "on form" at Augsberg - he's a killer for the USMNT and we sorely need that on the pitch.KCup17 said:
Pepi needs to start our remaining games. Once on the field we looked way more dynamic going forward. He is bright, has great movement off the ball and isn't afraid to get stuck in. If we are to grind out some wins and maintain our 2nd place spot we need him in the line up.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
re: Zardes/ Pepi I agree on Pepi going forward, but I thought the Ferreira start on Thursday was more puzzling. ...and I understand Dike is injured, but when do guys like Pefok and Sargent start getting called in ahead of Ferreira and Zardes?
Heated field
I could very be wrong, but I am fairly certain every team in CONCACAF has some level of uncertainty with 4 matches to go, every cycle.wangus12 said:
At the end of the day, it is completely unacceptable that we are doing this type of math with 4 matches to go with the talent gap that there is.
Ferreira created a lot of offense though, sooooh no said:
re: Zardes/ Pepi I agree on Pepi going forward, but I thought the Ferreira start on Thursday was more puzzling. ...and I understand Dike is injured, but when do guys like Pefok and Sargent start getting called in ahead of Ferreira and Zardes?
Pahdz said:
Heated field
So if we see players going to ground too easily or faking injuries, they're probably just trying to warm up.
Things aren't looking good in the Honduran camp right now. There is a real possibility that HON wont have a coach on Wednesday.
That will make it even .KCup17 said:
Things aren't looking good in the Honduran camp right now. There is a real possibility that HON wont have a coach on Wednesday.
And I will show myself out now thank you very much.
lolMathguy64 said:That will make it even .KCup17 said:
Things aren't looking good in the Honduran camp right now. There is a real possibility that HON wont have a coach on Wednesday.
And I will show myself out now thank you very much.
On the other hand, a team might play inspired football after a failing / unpopular manager gets fired.
And Berhalter will still get out-coached.KCup17 said:
Things aren't looking good in the Honduran camp right now. There is a real possibility that HON wont have a coach on Wednesday.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Did GGG get out coached against CAN or did our players get out performed by the opposition?
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