***Official USMNT-WCQ Octagonal Thread***

204,671 Views | 3020 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by cruzdoggie
oragator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
By the way, even Mexico's nickname is silly. It is supposedly because their flag has three colors. There are tons of countries that have a Tri color flag. Heck France, Italy, Netherlands, Ireland, Hungary, Lithuania, Belgium, Armenia, Luxembourg, Germany, Moldova among others…and that's just Europe.
So that's what makes Mexico unique to rally around?
Aston94
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
We are now just over halfway through the Octagonal, all 8 teams have play 8 matches and have 6 more remaining. In the last 2 matches Canada and Panama were the big winners, both going 2-0 and claiming 6 points. US was a respectable 1-0-1 claiming 4 points, while Mexico went winless.

Here are the current standings:
1. Canada 16 pts (+/- 8)
2. USA 15 pts (+/- 7)
3. Mexico 14 pts (+/- 4)
4. Panama 14 pts (+/- 2)
5. Costa Rica 9 pts (+/- -1)
6. Jamaica 7 pts (+/- -4)
7 El Salvador 6 pts (+/- -6)
8. Honduras 3 pts (+/- -10)

In my projections before WCQ began, I saw the US sitting on 14 pts right now, so we are 1 above my projections.

Here are the remaining matches for the US, and I have other matches for the top 4 teams listed as well. Costa Rica is the one team out of the bottom 4 that still could put up a challenge, but Panama separating themselves this last round of matches really makes it difficult for Costa Rica.

Remaining Matches:

Fourth Set of Matches
Jan. 27 - vs. El Salvador (#64 World Ranking, #7 CONCACAF). Home game against a Central American squad in January? These are the kind of games where you HAVE to get three points.

Canada at Honduras (Beginning of a crucial 3 match swing for Canada)
Mexico at Jamaica (Will Mex have a new coach for this trip?)
Panama at Costa Rica (game will end CR's chances or make for an exciting finish for 4th spot)

--US is only one of top 4 teams with home match this round, claiming all 3 points is a must.

Jan. 30 - at Canada (#59 World Ranking, #5 CONCACAF)--The site of Berhalter's lowest moment as U.S. coach, a comprehensive 2-0 Nations League loss at BMO Field in Toronto in Oct. 2019. Canada hadn't reached the last round of World Cup qualifying since the 1998 cycle. So where in the Arctic zone will Canada schedule this match?

Costa Rica at Mexico
Jamaica at Panama

--Mexico and Panama will both be looking for 3 points at home to lower opponents. Get a point in Canada and get out!

Feb. 2 - vs. Honduras (#67 World, #5 CONCACAF)-- Home game against a Central American squad in early February? These are the kind of games where you HAVE to get three points. Honduras is bottom of table, their interest in a match in the cold in the US, in the last of three matches in the set, should be minimal.

Panama at Mexico.
Canada at El Salvador.

--Panama-Mexico will be the big one here. Will be interesting to see what Canada will do with their 2 trips to Central America within a week, playin the US at home in the middle.

6 points is a must from this round of games. 7 points would be awesome. This is the US team's easiest round of matches and must make some ground here, especially given the harder matches Panama and Canada especially have in this set of games. 7 points would put the US at 22 points with 3 matches remaining.

Projected Points after 4th Set of Matches:
1. USA 22 pts
2. Mex 21 pts
3. Canada 20 pts
4. Panama 18 pts
5 . Costa Rica 11 points

Fifth Set of Games
March 24 - at Mexico (#9 World Ranking, #1 CONCACAF). The Octagonal's home stretch begins at the Estadio Azteca, where the U.S. is unbeaten in its past three visits, a friendly win in 2012 followed by qualifying draws in '13 and '17. Would love another draw here this go around.

Honduras at Panama--plan on 3 points here for Panama
Canada at Costa Rica--another Central American trip for Canada, will Costa Rica still be an interested party?

March 27 - vs. Panama (#74 World Ranking, #8 CONCACAF). The US faced Panama at home in the penultimate match of the 2018 WCQ Hexaganol, and recorded a decisive 4-0 win, making us all rather confident (including the team apparently) that they would cruise down to Trinidad and Tobago and finish qualification. Well we know the rest of the story, so hopefully we can repeat the win over Panama and then not have to worry about the final game away from home. US will likely need to get a win here to guarantee their spot in WC, don't want to need points from a trip to Costa Rica.

Jamaica at Canada
Mexico at Honduras

I would assume 3 points for both Canada and Mexico from these matches.

March 30 - at Costa Rica (#44 World Ranking, #3 CONCACAF). We all better hope that the US has fully qualified for the WC and that we can send a C team down to Central America for the final WCQ match.
The U.S. has had a brutal run in Costa Rica, where it's 0-9-2 all-time, including eight straight losses. If Costa Rica is out of contention you know they would love nothing more than to spoil a US World Cup party.

Canada at Panama---Really could be the match of the WCQ cycle. 4th trip for Canada to CA in their last 6 matches.
El Salvador at Mexico--If MExico needs points still then this match should be the 3 points needed

Final Projected Points:
1. Mex 30 pts
2. USA 26 pts
3. Canada 25 pts
4. Panama 22 pts
5 . Costa Rica 15 points

Mex, USA and Canada all qualify, Panama goes into playoff games.
oh no
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
jeffk said:



From what I've read, the sites for our two home games that window are somewhat dependent on where Canada chooses to send us for the rubber match.
I thought it was the 2nd match day that is away at Canada. 1st and 3rd match days are in USA.

..and why does Hamilton vs Vancouver vs I dgaf Manitoba, Saskatchewan, or Nova Scotia or anywhere matter for where in the USA we play vs El Salvador and Honduras?

i would not be opposed to playing those two central american squads in cold altitude - Denver and SLC!!
jeffk
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Yes, I'm a dummy and used "rubber match" incorrectly.

And I've seen several folks mention that USSF wants to lessen travel time between those three games and find similar climate/altitude to help our guys transition between matches.
oh no
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
i see, well if Canada wants their 2nd match day in Hamilton, which is in ontario outside of toronto, our best soccer venues close by would be Columbus and Chicago I think... Buffalo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Detroit are all close, but not near as good American Outlaw environments IMO.
gougler08
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
jeffk said:

Yes, I'm a dummy and used "rubber match" incorrectly.

And I've seen several folks mention that USSF wants to lessen travel time between those three games and find similar climate/altitude to help our guys transition between matches.
I mean, if they want to match climate then just plan it at Minnesota and call it a day
jeffk
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
USSF still has this hang-up with artificial turf too... which I sort of understand. But if you're going to play games in Jan-Feb and also want those matches to be at high altitudes in colder climates to screw with our SA conference-mates, then you're going to have to play on pretty crappy grass as well. At some point you have to wonder if trying to make things difficult on your opponents is negatively impacting your own team's play.
oh no
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
jeffk said:

USSF still has this hang-up with artificial turf too... which I sort of understand. But if you're going to play games in Jan-Feb and also want those matches to be at high altitudes in colder climates to screw with our SA conference-mates, then you're going to have to play on pretty crappy grass as well. At some point you have to wonder if trying to make things difficult on your opponents is negatively impacting your own team's play.
I thought FIFA has always been against the artificial surfaces for official FIFA-sanctioned events and has very strict installation and material standards if it's used for FIFA events.
jeffk
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I know FIFA requires hosting venues of major tournaments to have natural grass, but qualifiers are allowed to be played on artificial surfaces (like the one Canada-Mexico were on last night). They do give their stamp of approval to certain installers and manufacturers of artificial surfaces.
PatAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Aston94 said:

We are now just over halfway through the Octagonal, all 8 teams have play 8 matches and have 6 more remaining. In the last 2 matches Canada and Panama were the big winners, both going 2-0 and claiming 6 points. US was a respectable 1-0-1 claiming 4 points, while Mexico went winless.

Here are the current standings:
1. Canada 16 pts (+/- 8)
2. USA 15 pts (+/- 7)
3. Mexico 14 pts (+/- 4)
4. Panama 14 pts (+/- 2)
5. Costa Rica 9 pts (+/- -1)
6. Jamaica 7 pts (+/- -4)
7 El Salvador 6 pts (+/- -6)
8. Honduras 3 pts (+/- -10)

In my projections before WCQ began, I saw the US sitting on 14 pts right now, so we are 1 above my projections.

Here are the remaining matches for the US, and I have other matches for the top 4 teams listed as well. Costa Rica is the one team out of the bottom 4 that still could put up a challenge, but Panama separating themselves this last round of matches really makes it difficult for Costa Rica.

Remaining Matches:

Fourth Set of Matches
Jan. 27 - vs. El Salvador (#64 World Ranking, #7 CONCACAF). Home game against a Central American squad in January? These are the kind of games where you HAVE to get three points.

Canada at Honduras (Beginning of a crucial 3 match swing for Canada)
Mexico at Jamaica (Will Mex have a new coach for this trip?)
Panama at Costa Rica (game will end CR's chances or make for an exciting finish for 4th spot)

--US is only one of top 4 teams with home match this round, claiming all 3 points is a must.

Jan. 30 - at Canada (#59 World Ranking, #5 CONCACAF)--The site of Berhalter's lowest moment as U.S. coach, a comprehensive 2-0 Nations League loss at BMO Field in Toronto in Oct. 2019. Canada hadn't reached the last round of World Cup qualifying since the 1998 cycle. So where in the Arctic zone will Canada schedule this match?

Costa Rica at Mexico
Jamaica at Panama

--Mexico and Panama will both be looking for 3 points at home to lower opponents. Get a point in Canada and get out!

Feb. 2 - vs. Honduras (#67 World, #5 CONCACAF)-- Home game against a Central American squad in early February? These are the kind of games where you HAVE to get three points. Honduras is bottom of table, their interest in a match in the cold in the US, in the last of three matches in the set, should be minimal.

Panama at Mexico.
Canada at El Salvador.

--Panama-Mexico will be the big one here. Will be interesting to see what Canada will do with their 2 trips to Central America within a week, playin the US at home in the middle.

6 points is a must from this round of games. 7 points would be awesome. This is the US team's easiest round of matches and must make some ground here, especially given the harder matches Panama and Canada especially have in this set of games. 7 points would put the US at 22 points with 3 matches remaining.

Projected Points after 4th Set of Matches:
1. USA 22 pts
2. Mex 21 pts
3. Canada 20 pts
4. Panama 18 pts
5 . Costa Rica 11 points

Fifth Set of Games
March 24 - at Mexico (#9 World Ranking, #1 CONCACAF). The Octagonal's home stretch begins at the Estadio Azteca, where the U.S. is unbeaten in its past three visits, a friendly win in 2012 followed by qualifying draws in '13 and '17. Would love another draw here this go around.

Honduras at Panama--plan on 3 points here for Panama
Canada at Costa Rica--another Central American trip for Canada, will Costa Rica still be an interested party?

March 27 - vs. Panama (#74 World Ranking, #8 CONCACAF). The US faced Panama at home in the penultimate match of the 2018 WCQ Hexaganol, and recorded a decisive 4-0 win, making us all rather confident (including the team apparently) that they would cruise down to Trinidad and Tobago and finish qualification. Well we know the rest of the story, so hopefully we can repeat the win over Panama and then not have to worry about the final game away from home. US will likely need to get a win here to guarantee their spot in WC, don't want to need points from a trip to Costa Rica.

Jamaica at Canada
Mexico at Honduras

I would assume 3 points for both Canada and Mexico from these matches.

March 30 - at Costa Rica (#44 World Ranking, #3 CONCACAF). We all better hope that the US has fully qualified for the WC and that we can send a C team down to Central America for the final WCQ match.
The U.S. has had a brutal run in Costa Rica, where it's 0-9-2 all-time, including eight straight losses. If Costa Rica is out of contention you know they would love nothing more than to spoil a US World Cup party.

Canada at Panama---Really could be the match of the WCQ cycle. 4th trip for Canada to CA in their last 6 matches.
El Salvador at Mexico--If MExico needs points still then this match should be the 3 points needed

Final Projected Points:
1. Mex 30 pts
2. USA 26 pts
3. Canada 25 pts
4. Panama 22 pts
5 . Costa Rica 15 points

Mex, USA and Canada all qualify, Panama goes into playoff games.

Great breakdown. Some thoughts I had
Canada still has 4 away games, Mexico only has 2 away. Both us and Panama have 3 away.

We still go away to Canada and Mexico, Panama still has us and Mexico away

Canada and Panama still have harder remaining schedules than us and Mexico, but its not a gigantic gap, imo.

We absolutely need to be looking to get all 9 pts from our 3 home games, and at least 1 pt between the 3 away games total minimum.
A win at home takes 3 pts from Panama.
Any points beyond 1 between the 3 away games would be excellent as they would be taking points directly away from Mexico and Canada potentially (the current competition for 3 qualifying spots).
3 from Costa Rica is traditionally not something you can expect but they definitely are down this cycle.
aggiebird02
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Appreciating your analysis brother. Very much appreciated...
theNetSmith
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
great write-up!

seeing Mexico at #9 got me curious about our current world ranking, so I looked it up. #13 as of Oct 21.

if the timing of the release of the next rankings is consistent with the past few (8/12, 9/16, 10/21) then it should be updated towards the end of the month of November, I'd guess.

I haven't paid much attention to the world rankings in the past and which competitions factor into them, but shouldn't we gain ground or pass Mexico after beating them 3 times this year.. with such little room between #9 and #13? I mean, maybe we don't move up much, but at the least, I would expect their ranking to suffer.
oragator
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Canada wasn't the only winner last night.

https://deadline.com/2021/11/telemundo-deportes-canada-vs-mexico-world-cup-match-most-watched-sporting-event-in-two-years-1234876554/
boogieman
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
H.E. Pennypacker
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
oragator said:

By the way, even Mexico's nickname is silly. It is supposedly because their flag has three colors. There are tons of countries that have a Tri color flag. Heck France, Italy, Netherlands, Ireland, Hungary, Lithuania, Belgium, Armenia, Luxembourg, Germany, Moldova among others…and that's just Europe.
So that's what makes Mexico unique to rally around?


Wait until you hear about the Azzuri or the Oranje.
Milwaukees Best Light
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Props for this post. This is stuff people should pay for.
Pahdz
How long do you want to ignore this user?
gougler08 said:

jeffk said:

Yes, I'm a dummy and used "rubber match" incorrectly.

And I've seen several folks mention that USSF wants to lessen travel time between those three games and find similar climate/altitude to help our guys transition between matches.
I mean, if they want to match climate then just plan it at Minnesota and call it a day


I'm here for it! For those of you who have had season tickets at a venue were you able to access tickets before the general public for WCQ?
fig96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Pahdz said:

gougler08 said:

jeffk said:

Yes, I'm a dummy and used "rubber match" incorrectly.

And I've seen several folks mention that USSF wants to lessen travel time between those three games and find similar climate/altitude to help our guys transition between matches.
I mean, if they want to match climate then just plan it at Minnesota and call it a day


I'm here for it! For those of you who have had season tickets at a venue were you able to access tickets before the general public for WCQ?
For the match at Q2 last month they had a lottery for Austin FC season ticket holders as well as American Outlaws members. Don't know what the odds were but my buddy and I each got seats.
fig96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
gougler08 said:

jeffk said:

Yes, I'm a dummy and used "rubber match" incorrectly.

And I've seen several folks mention that USSF wants to lessen travel time between those three games and find similar climate/altitude to help our guys transition between matches.
I mean, if they want to match climate then just plan it at Minnesota and call it a day
You don't say…

jeffk
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
akm91
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I just don't see how we can get into the top 8, even if Portugal and Italy misses out.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
ChipFTAC01
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
And I thought I saw that at least Italy was cruising through qualification.
theNetSmith
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
akm91 said:

I just don't see how we can get into the top 8, even if Portugal and Italy misses out.
i was curious about Wahl saying we need to move up 5 spots to be one of the top-seeded teams because that would put us at 7.. he must have meant move up 4 spots
TRM
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
theNetSmith said:

akm91 said:

I just don't see how we can get into the top 8, even if Portugal and Italy misses out.
i was curious about Wahl saying we need to move up 5 spots to be one of the top-seeded teams because that would put us at 7.. he must have meant move up 4 spots
Five is right. We'd need to be top 7 since Qatar is seeded.
theNetSmith
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ohhh.. that makes sense now
TRM
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ChipFTAC01 said:

And I thought I saw that at least Italy was cruising through qualification.
Italy finished 2nd in their group behind Switzerland, so I guess they're going to some playoff.
TRM
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
akm91 said:

I just don't see how we can get into the top 8, even if Portugal and Italy misses out.
I think we'd need some blowout wins and Italy to miss out - only 13 points between us and Portugal.
Mathguy64
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TRM said:

ChipFTAC01 said:

And I thought I saw that at least Italy was cruising through qualification.
Italy finished 2nd in their group behind Switzerland, so I guess they're going to some playoff.


Italy and Portugal are both in the UEFA WCQ playoffs. It would be hilarious to see them both lose. Imagine Italy missing 2018, winning EURO2020/21 and missing WC2022. The implosion would be like Krakatoa x 100.
oh no
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
the '18 WC with no Italy, no freaky deeky Dutch, and no USA just felt weird. ...i would LMAO if Portugal didn't make it in '22 somehow though.
akm91
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TRM said:

akm91 said:

I just don't see how we can get into the top 8, even if Portugal and Italy misses out.
I think we'd need some blowout wins and Italy to miss out - only 13 points between us and Portugal.
It's not only the points that separate us from Portugal that really matters, it's that there are 4 teams between us and the 7th spot (big assumption that Italy doesn't make it). As we gain points, the others will also.

We will need to gain:
13 more than Portugal (assuming they qualify)
10 more than Denmark
6 more than Netherland
1 more than Germany

Luckily Switzerland is 5 points behind us.

Not sure when the seeds are locked in but given all the countries in front of us are European, they more than likely have better opportunity to rack up points.

If Italy wins their playoff then there's no way we'll catch Spain as they are 57 points ahead of us.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
TRM
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
akm91 said:

TRM said:

akm91 said:

I just don't see how we can get into the top 8, even if Portugal and Italy misses out.
I think we'd need some blowout wins and Italy to miss out - only 13 points between us and Portugal.
It's not only the points that separate us from Portugal that really matters, it's that there are 4 teams between us and the 7th spot (big assumption that Italy doesn't make it). As we gain points, the others will also.

We will need to gain:
13 more than Portugal (assuming they qualify)
10 more than Denmark
6 more than Netherland
1 more than Germany

Luckily Switzerland is 5 points behind us.

Not sure when the seeds are locked in but given all the countries in front of us are European, they more than likely have better opportunity to rack up points.

If Italy wins their playoff then there's no way we'll catch Spain as they are 57 points ahead of us.

Remember we'll have a higher multiplier since we're playing WC qualifiers compared to Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany playing friendlies. Obviously, Italy is the key.
deadbq03
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I had never paid attention to the UEFA WCQ qualification before. If I'm reading it correctly, they don't mess around:

1) Win your group (10 teams qualify)

OR

2) Face single elimination in a mini-playoff pod of four teams (there are three pods total). Winner of each pod automatically qualifies. (3 teams qualify)

If I'm reading it correctly, then there's a decent chance Italy and/or Portugal could fail to make it if they get a bad draw. Even if they get a good draw, it's single elimination, so anything could happen (come on N. Macedonia!)

Here's a link I found explaining the process:
https://inews.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2022-playoffs-when-draw-date-fixtures-schedule-how-qualifiers-work-seeding-explained-1303406
Aston94
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Yeah, its a bit different than they have done before. Before I believe they had fewer groups (8 instead of 10) and then after the 8 group winners won their group the eight 2nd place teams were all drawn for a home and home playoff to decide the final 4 spots, so the pod playoff system is new.

I wasn't aware that it was a one game elimination, I thought it was to be home and homes for the semis and the final, so that is very interesting.

Draw for the 3 pods is next Friday.
Ag Since 83
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
They've tried to give the Nations League meaning by offering playoff spots for both the Euros and WC to teams that do well in the Nations League but haven't qualified through the normal process

For example, Scotland got in to the Euros thanks to the Nations League getting them into the playoffs, and then this time Wales didn't have to worry about their final day of qualification, because even though they hadn't clinched 2nd place yet they were guaranteed to be one of the top performing teams in Nations League whose playoff spot wasn't already assured

Of course, once the WC goes to 48 next time they probably won't even need the playoffs
PatAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I dislike the world cup expanding, but I guess its happening no matter what
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.