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Icepocalypse watch 2022/2023

185,290 Views | 1531 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Jock 07
Quincey P. Morris
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In reply to BohunkAg • 9:59p, 1/17/23
AG
BohunkAg said:
Quincey P. Morris said:
I love cold weather, but today's pretty damned nice. And I get to enjoy my outside tv I just hung up.




Is that on the side of your house?


Side of the garage which is in the back yard. Got a weather proof bag to cover it when not in use and it comes off the mount easy if necessary.
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CDUB98
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 7:34a, 1/18/23
AG
I understand the map. They're departure from normal.

Maybe I'm just seeing the colors differently. I'm seeing them as anywhere from 7 to 11 degree colder than norm.

Could need to calibrate my eyeballs though.
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Ag_07
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In reply to CDUB98 • 8:13a, 1/18/23
AG
I think what he's trying to say is that it says 7-11 but the models don't typically account for the cold air very well so it's probably more of a drop than the model output.

I still don't see this as that cold and agree with the others. I would rather enjoy a shot of cold air in February as long it doesn't cover the city in a layer of ice for days straight.
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Fitch
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9:57p, 1/19/23
AG
Reposting this but not worth [whatever a tweet is worth] this far out.


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evestor1
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In reply to Fitch • 9:57a, 1/20/23
the dude gets it right 69% of the time!
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AgLA06
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In reply to evestor1 • 10:15a, 1/20/23
AG
evestor1 said:
the dude gets it right 69% of the time!
That's a lot more accurate than our local meteorologist.
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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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In reply to Fitch • 10:31a, 1/20/23
AG
Fitch said:
Reposting this but not worth [whatever a tweet is worth] this far out.


Perfect timing for cookoff
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AgLA06
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In reply to Ferris Wheel Allstar • 10:32a, 1/20/23
AG
Ferris Wheel Allstar said:
Fitch said:
Reposting this but not worth [whatever a tweet is worth] this far out.


Perfect timing for cookoff
Like clockwork. Seems like it's 50/50 each year.
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TXAG 05
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In reply to Ferris Wheel Allstar • 10:40a, 1/20/23
AG
Ferris Wheel Allstar said:
Fitch said:
Reposting this but not worth [whatever a tweet is worth] this far out.


Perfect timing for cookoff


We got a couple big propane heaters last year and they were worth every penny. Kept the whole tent nice and toasty.
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AgLA06
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In reply to TXAG 05 • 10:42a, 1/20/23
AG
TXAG 05 said:
Ferris Wheel Allstar said:
Fitch said:
Reposting this but not worth [whatever a tweet is worth] this far out.


Perfect timing for cookoff


We got a couple big propane heaters last year and they were worth every penny. Kept the whole tent nice and toasty.
I guess it pays to be head cook. Nice and warm around the pits.
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The Wonderer
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In reply to Ferris Wheel Allstar • 10:43a, 1/20/23
AG
Ferris Wheel Allstar said:
Fitch said:
Reposting this but not worth [whatever a tweet is worth] this far out.


Perfect timing for cookoff
I'm going to laugh when everyone that said they weren't going to go this year if the weather was like last year changes their minds and then start asking for bands the week of.
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AgLA06
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In reply to The Wonderer • 10:44a, 1/20/23
AG
The Wonderer said:
Ferris Wheel Allstar said:
Fitch said:
Reposting this but not worth [whatever a tweet is worth] this far out.


Perfect timing for cookoff
I'm going to laugh when everyone that said they weren't going to go this year if the weather was like last year changes their minds and then start asking for bands the week of.
As I said.

Like clockwork.
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Texaggie7nine
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In reply to TXAG 05 • 10:48a, 1/20/23
TXAG 05 said:
Ferris Wheel Allstar said:
Fitch said:
Reposting this but not worth [whatever a tweet is worth] this far out.


Perfect timing for cookoff


We got a couple big propane heaters last year and they were worth every penny. Kept the whole tent nice and toasty.
I hear hand grenades work as well.
7nine
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BayAg_14
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12:37p, 1/21/23
Little sooner than cook off.

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txags92
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In reply to BayAg_14 • 12:50p, 1/21/23
AG
BayAg_14 said:
Little sooner than cook off.

Trail ride weather...
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Fitch
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3:33p, 1/21/23
AG
The 12z GFS has us going below freezing early Tuesday (1/31) and staying under through Saturday (2/4).

Not a forecast but starting to get noticed in the long range.
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Tom Cardy
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In reply to Fitch • 3:40p, 1/21/23
AG
Also the only model showing that, with most others showing mild/warm for the time. Not saying it won't happen, but this is the first blip on the radar. Think of all the hurricanes that get spun up on these models just to never happen, or to have different outcomes.

If we see consistency over several model runs and then other models starting to show the same, then maybe
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Seabreeze
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4:12p, 1/21/23
18z, poof it's gone.
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txags92
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In reply to Seabreeze • 4:20p, 1/21/23
AG
Seabreeze said:
18z, poof it's gone.
What site are you using to access the 18z? Because on tropical tidbits, the 18z is only showing up to the 28th right now. Rest is still running.
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CowtownAg06
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4:35p, 1/21/23
AG
18z hasn't caught up to where the 12 went crazy cold, but nothing else followed it. The GFS op is the drunk uncle for a reason.
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CowtownAg06
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4:35p, 1/21/23
AG
Don't know where the emoji came from.
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Fitch
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In reply to Tom Cardy • 4:43p, 1/21/23
AG
Yup, spot on.

Personally not interested in anything sub-freezing.
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wessimo
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6:12p, 1/21/23
AG
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CDUB98
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8:00p, 1/21/23
AG
No freezing weather please.
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CowtownAg06
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8:50a, 1/22/23
AG
GFS Op lost over 147 HDDs in Texas on the 0z. Basically it's a cumulative of 147 degrees warmer over the 15 days. That's too warm, but just an example of not taking operational outliers too seriously.
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Tom Cardy
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In reply to CowtownAg06 • 9:37a, 1/22/23
AG
The gfs and euro have both been consistent showing a front pushing through sometime that week, but probably not going to be an arctic blast. Could be a shot of cold air, maybe a light freeze. Perfectly normal for this time of year

The larger pattern continues to favor typical La Niña winter, and the SE ridge seems to be another consistent presence in the models. Warmer than average for the most part with some shots of cooler air here and there
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Tom Cardy • 10:16a, 1/22/23
Tom Cardy said:
The gfs and euro have both been consistent showing a front pushing through sometime that week, but probably not going to be an arctic blast. Could be a shot of cold air, maybe a light freeze. Perfectly normal for this time of year

The larger pattern continues to favor typical La Niña winter, and the SE ridge seems to be another consistent presence in the models. Warmer than average for the most part with some shots of cooler air here and there


SE ridge is largely immaterial late in Winter. It's much more of a factor in December than late January and February.

The one good thing it does late in Winter is set up baroclinic boundaries in the south which sets up areas of heavy snow and ice. But when you get big fronts late in the season, they overwhelm the ridge rather easily compared to early in the season.
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cone
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12:44p, 1/22/23
AG
it's pretty warm outside in the sun right now
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gougler08
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In reply to cone • 1:34p, 1/22/23
AG
It's a glorious day
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Fitch
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7:43p, 1/22/23
AG
Not so much Icepocalypse-related but seemed germane for weather happenings… batten down the hatches…



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wessimo
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1:53p, 1/23/23
AG
Do not want

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Seersucker Ag 2011
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In reply to wessimo • 1:58p, 1/23/23
AG
Frankie MacDonald live from His Own TV Station or gtfo
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CDUB98
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2:02p, 1/23/23
AG
Timmer may be correct, but I cannot get over how much of a raging d-bag he is.
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Tom Cardy
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In reply to wessimo • 2:17p, 1/23/23
AG
"Extreme forecaster"
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wessimo
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2:28p, 1/23/23
AG
Ok here's one from a more reputable source

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