TWC hasn't gotten the memo yet

This is about where I was expecting them to be. Ensemble modeling is much less aggressive than some of the recent operational runs on how far south the air is going to penetrate and stick. It's going to be cold for a few days, regardless.

The bigger question we have is regarding the resiliency of the power grid. Compared to '21, current temp projections for the rest of the state would be much higher and should reduce the load to some degree. I'm optimistic that the lights would stay on given current trends.

I know we are still too far out to know for sure...

White Christmas update: forecast snow depth at 7 pm on Christmas Eve. 📈Significantly improved chances in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and even into Tennnessee.

Snowfall dependent upon storm tracks, highly uncertain at 10-days+. But, ask Santa and he'll deliver. ❄️🎅 pic.twitter.com/cN44XuOF5X

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 15, 2022

Tom Cardy said:

---

This is about where I was expecting them to be. Ensemble modeling is much less aggressive than some of the recent operational runs on how far south the air is going to penetrate and stick. It's going to be cold for a few days, regardless.

The bigger question we have is regarding the resiliency of the power grid. Compared to '21, current temp projections for the rest of the state would be much higher and should reduce the load to some degree. I'm optimistic that the lights would stay on given current trends.

---

Ensemble modeling is always going to be less severe because it's an average of 21 members on GEFS and 50 on Euro.

With that said, ensembles are good to see ranges and "what's on the table of options"

Anti-taxxer said:

---

Cold, really cold?

Or cold, miserable, near-death, everything is frozen cold?

---

Really cold by our standards. If I was modeling a long range forecast right now, I'd probably blend the Canadian and Euro. GFS is too progressive. Arctic Air bleeds south then East as it dams up against the Rockies (see Coriolis effect). It doesn't start moving SE freely through the country.

I'm not concerned with cold air too much. What I'm concerned with is precipitation. Right now, it seems to have exited the building.

CDUB98 said:

---

I'm not concerned with cold air too much. What I'm concerned with is precipitation. Right now, it seems to have exited the building.

---

Precip will be a mystery until 2-3 days out. Always is. But if we have a ridge over the Baja, the only way we would get precip is via lift at the actual front.

So a 2004 senerio if that happens

Seabreeze said:

---

So a 2004 senerio if that happens

---

2004 was a coastal low that formed off of Brownsville. Not a Ana frontal precip situation

Linder 12/15 update:

Late Next Week:
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to support the unleashing of an arctic air mass into the US around the middle of next week with an arrival into TX around the 22nd. This cold air mass is driven by a significant 1050-1065mb arctic high pressure dome that develops over NW Canada later this weekend and sinks southward toward the US/Montana border early next week. Some of the deterministic model runs want to push the arctic air more east with a glancing (still cold) blow across TX. Historical analogs suggest that once this air mass begins to move southward it is coming south fast and cold as global models tend to struggle with the extreme density of such air masses and are historically too warm and slow with the arrival of such air masses into the southern plains. Still need to see how cold the air mass becomes this weekend in NW Canada before having a decent idea of how cold temperatures will be in the southern plains and TX late next week.

For now will go with an arrival of the arctic front across SE TX on the 22nd/23rd with significantly colder temperatures. Averaging out the various longer range guidance outputs suggests at least 2-3 nights below freezing over the entire area with highs in the 30's around Christmas Eve/Day. This may need to be trended colder as the intensity of this air mass comes into better focus early next week. The NAM usually does a good job with these sorts of air masses and we are still 3-4 days before coming into the view of that guidance. For now much of the global guidance is fairly dry behind the arctic front, so at the moment no entertainment of freezing or frozen precipitation.

People will still freak out.

Yep, '21 is still fresh on everyone's minds. The panic people, and hoarders will be out in full force. Stock up on bottle water and toilet paper now.

Yo, have we met each other in real life? I'm thinking yes, but not sure.

The load on the grid wasn't as big of a problem as the number of generators offline for maintenance and the strain on the natural gas infrastructure. Then, once some of the generation tripped, the we were in a load problem. If they don't have so much generation offline then I cant see it being a problem.

We have. A long time ago.

CDUB98 said:

---

Yo, have we met each other in real life? I'm thinking yes, but not sure.

---

Do you wear your username on a name tag?

Nvnd, my snark was too late.

Seabreeze said:

---

Yep, '21 is still fresh on everyone's minds. The panic people, and hoarders will be out in full force. Stock up on bottle water and toilet paper now.

---

Thanks to those ****sticks that destroyed the economy during Covid, we keep out TP stocked up at all times now.

During the '21 coldpocalypse, we just drank our hurricane water and ate the various dry good we already had in the house. Thankfully, we only lost power for about 15 hours. It was the several days without a shower that really got my undies in a bunch.

CDUB98 said:

---

Seabreeze said:

---

Yep, '21 is still fresh on everyone's minds. The panic people, and hoarders will be out in full force. Stock up on bottle water and toilet paper now.

---

Thanks to those ****sticks that destroyed the economy during Covid, we keep out TP stocked up at all times now.

During the '21 coldpocalypse, we just drank our hurricane water and ate the various dry good we already had in the house. Thankfully, we only lost power for about 15 hours. It was the several days without a shower that really got my undies in a bunch.

---

That was the thing that got me too.

The days without water was the killer. We still had nat gas, so if we had water to clean dishes with, I could still have cooked up a storm with what was in the freezer, but then we'd just have piles of dirty, smelly dishes.

Yeah, we had a dozen people in our house, including us. We never lost power but made feeding and cleaning after that many people impossible.

damn you are grizzled

AlaskanAg99 said:

---

Didn't take a *****'s bath?

We were taking water from 2 rain barrels, boiling it and taking a sink bath. Felt so good after the 2nd day.

And that's why you need to keep 1 gallon per person per day for emergencies. During hurricane season we plan for 2 weeks without services. Power or water.

I can store 135 gallon potable RO water with a few days notice, x2 if we need to collect rain water. And that's for 5 adults and 3 large dogs (they're drinking rain water).

---

Username checks out

Another discussion.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&sid=6a66517ce0615b5e41b9d3fa9f52b65a&start=1600

Euro Model late next week and GFS have a highly amplified jet streak diving into the Central US. The highest winds up where the jets fly are almost off the legend! The result will be Arctic air racing into the US and a powerful storm near the East Coast pic.twitter.com/7HWhEgjR8c

— Bill Karins (@BillKarins) December 15, 2022