12z euro has the coldest air shooting east earlier now, which would spare Texas from getting a straight shot and be more of a glancing blow. Still nice and cold (mid-20s all the way into houston) but not a total ice cube
Icepocalypse watch 2022/2023
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Tom Cardy said:
12z euro has the coldest air shooting east earlier now, which would spare Texas from getting a straight shot and be more of a glancing blow. Still nice and cold (mid-20s all the way into houston) but not a total ice cube
Y'all need to read the ensembles if you want any clue as to how this plays out and even then ensembles are a blended package. They are pretty similar across models and handle the Arctic air correctly. Operational runs won't be somewhat accurate until Sunday as we get into hi-res.
Following the operationals right now will drive you crazy as they flip flop around.
Wake me up when Frankie chimes in
Y'all gave each other reacharounds once...but it was a long time ago.CDUB98 said:
Yo, have we met each other in real life? I'm thinking yes, but not sure.
BohunkAg said:Y'all gave each other reacharounds once...but it was a long time ago.CDUB98 said:
Yo, have we met each other in real life? I'm thinking yes, but not sure.
Don't forget, you enjoyed watching.
GFS 06Z
6-8 inches of snow? That would be nucking futs
11"-13" of snow in Louisiana. wow...
https://twitter.com/BigJoe*******i/status/1603616425393913862?s=20&t=0GpENiaFjG1eX9o93S7Udw
Quote:
Models almost always underestimate cold in Texas in charges down the plains. I think most of the numbers are. 5-10 is too warm We think it gets into single digits in Dallas, teens in Houston and 20s LRGV And much of the south gets snow, at least in the air
near or at Christmas
11:02 PM Dec 15, 2022
https://twitter.com/BigJoe*******i/status/1603616425393913862?s=20&t=0GpENiaFjG1eX9o93S7Udw
Y'all aren't fapped out yet?
Dill-Ag13 said:
6-8 inches of snow? That would be nucking futs
Gonna be solid watching the crashes on tv.
The winter I moved from La back to Alaska we had 4" of snow. It was good prep for arriving to AK in March to 4' of snow.
That was back in the mid 80's.
That was back in the mid 80's.
aTm '99
I'm a weather dummy. Explain to me what models these are and the likelihood because I'm not really seeing this anywhere else. Space City Weather's update this morning has snow for Houston area at <10% according to the European Model.BayAg_14 said:
GFS 06Z
S
Short answer is this is the latest run of the American GFS model. It updates four times a day. Weathermen won't base their forecast off one run, especially this far out. For what it's worth the last two runs have showed snow. Website a lot of people use is below.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Thanks
The GFS will very likely lose that storm on its next run. That 06z run is completely bananas.
Cromagnum said:Dill-Ag13 said:
6-8 inches of snow? That would be nucking futs
Gonna be solid watching the crashes on tv.
Happy Hanukkah, Marv!
Good news - heading to USVI Wednesday when the cold comes in (#humblebrag)
Bad news - we switch planes in Chicago early that Wed morning
Hoping Chicago O'Hare has their stuff together and can get us in and out.
Any travel predictions for this hard freeze?
Bad news - we switch planes in Chicago early that Wed morning
Hoping Chicago O'Hare has their stuff together and can get us in and out.
Any travel predictions for this hard freeze?
Big Al 1992 said:
Good news - heading to USVI Wednesday when the cold comes in (#humblebrag)
Bad news - we switch planes in Chicago early that Wed morning
Hoping Chicago O'Hare has their stuff together and can get us in and out.
Any travel predictions for this hard freeze?
I hope you like Chicago...
As someone that has traveled a lot for work over the last 10 years, I have learned to never change planes north of the Mason-Dixon between Nov. 10th and March 30th.Big Al 1992 said:
Good news - heading to USVI Wednesday when the cold comes in (#humblebrag)
Bad news - we switch planes in Chicago early that Wed morning
Hoping Chicago O'Hare has their stuff together and can get us in and out.
Any travel predictions for this hard freeze?
Why the hell are you flying so far north for a SE itinerary? This sounds like some **** that American would do in which case I'd see if there was anyway to go through MIA or DFW instead.
Big Al 1992 said:
Hoping Chicago O'Hare has their stuff together and can get us in and out.
Ha! Good one
Switching at O'Hare
During peak holiday travel time
During a weather event
That's a blizzard/freeze
Yeah...Good luck
I used to fly through O'Hare all the time for work, multiple times a month. At one point, I estimated that only 15% of my connections went as planned. And that was work week travel.
Best of luck to you, may you be the luckiest person in that airport
Best of luck to you, may you be the luckiest person in that airport
The way this guy can effortlessly move from December 89 to the 1993 superstorm to Hurricane Hazel is truly astounding. 🙄 pic.twitter.com/CehhsKWZ5j
— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) December 16, 2022
Lol
I'd love to see that tool struck by a lightning bolt during thundersnow.
Holy moly! ECMWF 12z coming with a wrecking ball #PolarVortex
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 16, 2022
1064 mb High Pressure. Huge! Very cold Arctic air 📉
Where will the blockbuster blizzard track? Wild weather for Christmas 🎄in the forecast.
+6 days. pic.twitter.com/FQIsgG5N0I
Wow! I'm astounded at the magnitude of this circulation pattern. Beast mode Santa 🎅 straight from North Pole.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 16, 2022
ECMWF model uncorks a massive continental scale #PolarVortex Arctic blast late next week. pic.twitter.com/0Ft0LbjdD2
This is one of those accounts that is very interesting. Is part of a business that does net forecasting, followed by several notable officials from Houston area and nationally, but continually spewing political opinion mixed in with cherry picking models that fit his narrative. To the average person who stumbles across this on Twitter, how would they even know it's likely not going to be what he's saying?
All this click baity crazy hyperbole bs is so obnoxious. Throw in the emojis and this guy is completely insufferable.
Yeah. I don't even pay attention to fools like that. I'll wait until space city gives an update.
Matt Lanza is the other half of Space City Weather, Joe B. seems to be associated with weatherbell.com and has been on some talking heads infotainment shows. Ryan M. is just a confusing account to follow, lot of weather info and a lot of mixed signals on climate change though *generally* seems middle aisle.
Though it's often disguised, 99% of what's on social media is someone selling something.
Anyways, I digress…
Though it's often disguised, 99% of what's on social media is someone selling something.
Anyways, I digress…
Also, those temperature anomaly models are great in the right context, but mostly they just look purple and scary and work well for getting views.
We're 7-10 days out from this weather event. Click baity hyperbole is what I'm here for.Sea Speed said:
All this click baity crazy hyperbole bs is so obnoxious. Throw in the emojis and this guy is completely insufferable.
I'll just wait for Frankie to chime in.
aTm '99
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