12z euro has the coldest air shooting east earlier now, which would spare Texas from getting a straight shot and be more of a glancing blow. Still nice and cold (mid-20s all the way into houston) but not a total ice cube

In reply to Tom Cardy

Tom Cardy said:

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12z euro has the coldest air shooting east earlier now, which would spare Texas from getting a straight shot and be more of a glancing blow. Still nice and cold (mid-20s all the way into houston) but not a total ice cube

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Y'all need to read the ensembles if you want any clue as to how this plays out and even then ensembles are a blended package. They are pretty similar across models and handle the Arctic air correctly. Operational runs won't be somewhat accurate until Sunday as we get into hi-res.
Following the operationals right now will drive you crazy as they flip flop around.

In reply to CDUB98

CDUB98 said:

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Yo, have we met each other in real life? I'm thinking yes, but not sure.

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Y'all gave each other reacharounds once...but it was a long time ago.

In reply to BohunkAg

BohunkAg said:

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CDUB98 said:

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Yo, have we met each other in real life? I'm thinking yes, but not sure.

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Y'all gave each other reacharounds once...but it was a long time ago.

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Don't forget, you enjoyed watching.

GFS 06Z

In reply to BayAg_14 6-8 inches of snow? That would be nucking futs

11"-13" of snow in Louisiana. wow...

Quote:

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Models almost always underestimate cold in Texas in charges down the plains. I think most of the numbers are. 5-10 is too warm We think it gets into single digits in Dallas, teens in Houston and 20s LRGV And much of the south gets snow, at least in the air
near or at Christmas


11:02 PM Dec 15, 2022

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https://twitter.com/BigJoe*******i/status/1603616425393913862?s=20&t=0GpENiaFjG1eX9o93S7Udw

Y'all aren't fapped out yet?

In reply to Dill-Ag13

Dill-Ag13 said:

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6-8 inches of snow? That would be nucking futs

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Gonna be solid watching the crashes on tv.

The winter I moved from La back to Alaska we had 4" of snow. It was good prep for arriving to AK in March to 4' of snow.

That was back in the mid 80's.

In reply to BayAg_14

BayAg_14 said:

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GFS 06Z

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I'm a weather dummy. Explain to me what models these are and the likelihood because I'm not really seeing this anywhere else. Space City Weather's update this morning has snow for Houston area at <10% according to the European Model.

S

In reply to BayAg_14 Thanks

The GFS will very likely lose that storm on its next run. That 06z run is completely bananas.

Good news - heading to USVI Wednesday when the cold comes in (#humblebrag)
Bad news - we switch planes in Chicago early that Wed morning
Hoping Chicago O'Hare has their stuff together and can get us in and out.
Any travel predictions for this hard freeze?

In reply to Fitch I'd love to see that tool struck by a lightning bolt during thundersnow.

Holy moly! ECMWF 12z coming with a wrecking ball #PolarVortex

1064 mb High Pressure. Huge! Very cold Arctic air 📉

Where will the blockbuster blizzard track? Wild weather for Christmas 🎄in the forecast.

+6 days. pic.twitter.com/FQIsgG5N0I

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 16, 2022

Wow! I'm astounded at the magnitude of this circulation pattern. Beast mode Santa 🎅 straight from North Pole.

ECMWF model uncorks a massive continental scale #PolarVortex Arctic blast late next week. pic.twitter.com/0Ft0LbjdD2

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 16, 2022

In reply to Fitch This is one of those accounts that is very interesting. Is part of a business that does net forecasting, followed by several notable officials from Houston area and nationally, but continually spewing political opinion mixed in with cherry picking models that fit his narrative. To the average person who stumbles across this on Twitter, how would they even know it's likely not going to be what he's saying?

In reply to Sea Speed Yeah. I don't even pay attention to fools like that. I'll wait until space city gives an update.

Matt Lanza is the other half of Space City Weather, Joe B. seems to be associated with weatherbell.com and has been on some talking heads infotainment shows. Ryan M. is just a confusing account to follow, lot of weather info and a lot of mixed signals on climate change though *generally* seems middle aisle.

Though it's often disguised, 99% of what's on social media is someone selling something.

Anyways, I digress…

Also, those temperature anomaly models are great in the right context, but mostly they just look purple and scary and work well for getting views.

In reply to Sea Speed

Sea Speed said:

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All this click baity crazy hyperbole bs is so obnoxious. Throw in the emojis and this guy is completely insufferable.

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We're 7-10 days out from this weather event. Click baity hyperbole is what I'm here for.

I'll just wait for Frankie to chime in.