Thank you!
Icepocalypse watch 2022/2023
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Last: 1 yr ago by Jock 07
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Control runs this far out are for entertainment purposes. It's good to look at them for potential outcomes, but I like to look at the GEFS and EPS (ensemble packages) and blend them if their upper air patterns look similar.
Right now, both show a cold next two weeks once we get past mid week this week. How cold is really hard to nail down outside 5-7 days. There are some extreme ensemble members (highs in the teens and 20s) on the table, and some in the 50s. There is your range for Christmas week.
We need to see the Siberian air enter NW Canada before we nail down how cold.
Right now, both show a cold next two weeks once we get past mid week this week. How cold is really hard to nail down outside 5-7 days. There are some extreme ensemble members (highs in the teens and 20s) on the table, and some in the 50s. There is your range for Christmas week.
We need to see the Siberian air enter NW Canada before we nail down how cold.
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
Control runs this far out are for entertainment purposes. It's good to look at them for potential outcomes, but I like to look at the GEFS and EPS (ensemble packages) and blend them if their upper air patterns look similar.
Right now, both show a cold next two weeks once we get past mid week this week. How cold is really hard to nail down outside 5-7 days. There are some extreme ensemble members (highs in the teens and 20s) on the table, and some in the 50s. There is your range for Christmas week.
We need to see the Siberian air enter NW Canada before we nail down how cold.
Username checks the **** out.
From SCW this morning
From Jeff Linder this AM newsletter:
Next Week:
Operational runs of the various models continue to struggle with the potential delivery of a bitter cold arctic air mass into the US the week of Christmas. Ensemble means have been a bit more consistent with the formation of an impressive surface arctic high pressure system over the Arctic Ocean/NW Canada by this time next week with some of the coldest air currently on earth over northern Siberia (-70 to -80F) being brought across the north pole and into NW Canada. Questions remain as to if this air mass drops down the plains or moves more ESE/SE toward the Great Lakes giving Texas a glancing blow. For now will continue with below normal temperatures through next week and see how the models trend over the next few days and how much cold air builds into the delivery source region over NW Canada.
Next Week:
Operational runs of the various models continue to struggle with the potential delivery of a bitter cold arctic air mass into the US the week of Christmas. Ensemble means have been a bit more consistent with the formation of an impressive surface arctic high pressure system over the Arctic Ocean/NW Canada by this time next week with some of the coldest air currently on earth over northern Siberia (-70 to -80F) being brought across the north pole and into NW Canada. Questions remain as to if this air mass drops down the plains or moves more ESE/SE toward the Great Lakes giving Texas a glancing blow. For now will continue with below normal temperatures through next week and see how the models trend over the next few days and how much cold air builds into the delivery source region over NW Canada.
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Sugar_Land_Wes said:
From Jeff Linder this AM newsletter:
Next Week:
Operational runs of the various models continue to struggle with the potential delivery of a bitter cold arctic air mass into the US the week of Christmas. Ensemble means have been a bit more consistent with the formation of an impressive surface arctic high pressure system over the Arctic Ocean/NW Canada by this time next week with some of the coldest air currently on earth over northern Siberia (-70 to -80F) being brought across the north pole and into NW Canada. Questions remain as to if this air mass drops down the plains or moves more ESE/SE toward the Great Lakes giving Texas a glancing blow. For now will continue with below normal temperatures through next week and see how the models trend over the next few days and how much cold air builds into the delivery source region over NW Canada.
One of the best right there
so basically, it will be cold. not sure how cold yet....
-80F nice!
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Correct. We are still a bit out from the cold entering Canada. Wednesday-Thursday will give a better picture.
I don't believe it will get ESE movement to the Great Lakes. PNA would have to be very positive for that to happen and it's neutral (favoring central-south cold air movement)
I don't believe it will get ESE movement to the Great Lakes. PNA would have to be very positive for that to happen and it's neutral (favoring central-south cold air movement)
No thanks.
Are the numbers the temps?
FJB
How can Santa find our house if there's no power?
hell yea. good hot tub night.
If you don't have a whole home generator, he can follow the smoke plume from your burning furniture.
Good night to make some friction w the old lady
Yeptandy miller said:
Are the numbers the temps?
That will be a good time to light my pile of tires for warmth
No thanks to this one as well.
Can anyone recommend a good chimney sweep/inspection company? I'm ITL near 45/610 North.
That would be festive.
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It's not every day that the Euro and GFS agree on a Gulf Coast Winter Storm this far out.
If you take the CMC, its HP dome is 1983 cold so it suppresses precip into the gulf and we have bone dry and very cold.
If you take the CMC, its HP dome is 1983 cold so it suppresses precip into the gulf and we have bone dry and very cold.
No way it gets to single digits. This isn't Minnesota
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It happened in 21, 89, 83, 77
Almost happened in 2011 and 2018
Almost happened in 2011 and 2018
Are you a meteorologist? You know a lot about the weather… not being snarky, it's a serious question
He posted why in this thread
Sigh. My mom really needs me to be there at Christmas. I mean REALLY needs me there. Bad family drama.
This forecast is not good. Hoping things shift east.
This forecast is not good. Hoping things shift east.
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tandy miller said:
Are you a meteorologist? You know a lot about the weather… not being snarky, it's a serious question
Energy trader… been a long range fanatic since 1989.
Gotcha. I don't know **** about ****
Was one of these the time Galveston Bay froze over?Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
It happened in 21, 89, 83, 77
Almost happened in 2011 and 2018
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Fitch said:Was one of these the time Galveston Bay froze over?Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
It happened in 21, 89, 83, 77
Almost happened in 2011 and 2018
83
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tandy miller said:
Gotcha. I don't know **** about ****
Channel your inner Robin Williams
Still have photos of me and my Grandfather walking 100 yards off the Texas City dike on a frozen Galveston bay
Seabreeze said:
Still have photos of me and my Grandfather walking 100 yards off the Texas City dike on a frozen Galveston bay
BayAg_14 said:
No thanks.
Awesome. From 85 degrees to 11 in two weeks. The fish kill is gonna be bad. Better get pipe insulation before there is a run.
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