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Icepocalypse watch 2022/2023

185,321 Views | 1531 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Jock 07
John Matrix
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AG
Thank you!
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Control runs this far out are for entertainment purposes. It's good to look at them for potential outcomes, but I like to look at the GEFS and EPS (ensemble packages) and blend them if their upper air patterns look similar.

Right now, both show a cold next two weeks once we get past mid week this week. How cold is really hard to nail down outside 5-7 days. There are some extreme ensemble members (highs in the teens and 20s) on the table, and some in the 50s. There is your range for Christmas week.

We need to see the Siberian air enter NW Canada before we nail down how cold.
Fitch
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https://twitter.com/bigjoe*******i/status/1602278503101059072




Cromagnum
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Control runs this far out are for entertainment purposes. It's good to look at them for potential outcomes, but I like to look at the GEFS and EPS (ensemble packages) and blend them if their upper air patterns look similar.

Right now, both show a cold next two weeks once we get past mid week this week. How cold is really hard to nail down outside 5-7 days. There are some extreme ensemble members (highs in the teens and 20s) on the table, and some in the 50s. There is your range for Christmas week.

We need to see the Siberian air enter NW Canada before we nail down how cold.


Username checks the **** out.
Seabreeze
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From SCW this morning
Sugar_Land_Wes
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From Jeff Linder this AM newsletter:

Next Week:
Operational runs of the various models continue to struggle with the potential delivery of a bitter cold arctic air mass into the US the week of Christmas. Ensemble means have been a bit more consistent with the formation of an impressive surface arctic high pressure system over the Arctic Ocean/NW Canada by this time next week with some of the coldest air currently on earth over northern Siberia (-70 to -80F) being brought across the north pole and into NW Canada. Questions remain as to if this air mass drops down the plains or moves more ESE/SE toward the Great Lakes giving Texas a glancing blow. For now will continue with below normal temperatures through next week and see how the models trend over the next few days and how much cold air builds into the delivery source region over NW Canada.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Sugar_Land_Wes said:

From Jeff Linder this AM newsletter:

Next Week:
Operational runs of the various models continue to struggle with the potential delivery of a bitter cold arctic air mass into the US the week of Christmas. Ensemble means have been a bit more consistent with the formation of an impressive surface arctic high pressure system over the Arctic Ocean/NW Canada by this time next week with some of the coldest air currently on earth over northern Siberia (-70 to -80F) being brought across the north pole and into NW Canada. Questions remain as to if this air mass drops down the plains or moves more ESE/SE toward the Great Lakes giving Texas a glancing blow. For now will continue with below normal temperatures through next week and see how the models trend over the next few days and how much cold air builds into the delivery source region over NW Canada.


One of the best right there
AustinCountyAg
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so basically, it will be cold. not sure how cold yet....
evestor1
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-80F nice!
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Correct. We are still a bit out from the cold entering Canada. Wednesday-Thursday will give a better picture.

I don't believe it will get ESE movement to the Great Lakes. PNA would have to be very positive for that to happen and it's neutral (favoring central-south cold air movement)


BayAg_14
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No thanks.

tandy miller
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Are the numbers the temps?
FJB
Ag_07
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How can Santa find our house if there's no power?
RK
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hell yea. good hot tub night.
wessimo
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If you don't have a whole home generator, he can follow the smoke plume from your burning furniture.
tandy miller
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Good night to make some friction w the old lady
Seabreeze
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tandy miller said:

Are the numbers the temps?
Yep
tandy miller
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AG
That will be a good time to light my pile of tires for warmth
BayAg_14
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No thanks to this one as well.

atmtws
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Can anyone recommend a good chimney sweep/inspection company? I'm ITL near 45/610 North.
wessimo
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That would be festive.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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It's not every day that the Euro and GFS agree on a Gulf Coast Winter Storm this far out.

If you take the CMC, its HP dome is 1983 cold so it suppresses precip into the gulf and we have bone dry and very cold.
tandy miller
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No way it gets to single digits. This isn't Minnesota
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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It happened in 21, 89, 83, 77

Almost happened in 2011 and 2018
tandy miller
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Are you a meteorologist? You know a lot about the weather… not being snarky, it's a serious question
htxag09
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He posted why in this thread
CDUB98
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Sigh. My mom really needs me to be there at Christmas. I mean REALLY needs me there. Bad family drama.

This forecast is not good. Hoping things shift east.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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tandy miller said:

Are you a meteorologist? You know a lot about the weather… not being snarky, it's a serious question



Energy trader… been a long range fanatic since 1989.

tandy miller
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Gotcha. I don't know **** about ****
Fitch
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

It happened in 21, 89, 83, 77

Almost happened in 2011 and 2018
Was one of these the time Galveston Bay froze over?
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Fitch said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

It happened in 21, 89, 83, 77

Almost happened in 2011 and 2018
Was one of these the time Galveston Bay froze over?


83
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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tandy miller said:

Gotcha. I don't know **** about ****


Channel your inner Robin Williams
Seabreeze
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Still have photos of me and my Grandfather walking 100 yards off the Texas City dike on a frozen Galveston bay
CDUB98
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Seabreeze said:

Still have photos of me and my Grandfather walking 100 yards off the Texas City dike on a frozen Galveston bay
Cromagnum
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BayAg_14 said:

No thanks.




Awesome. From 85 degrees to 11 in two weeks. The fish kill is gonna be bad. Better get pipe insulation before there is a run.
 
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