Euro did the same with Laura until the day of landfall. Will be interesting to see if it does the same in this instance.
Tropical two-fer
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Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
From Space City Weather:
So like Laura, it seems that the European model is finally coming together and moving east. The NHC appears to have been correct that it continued to show western bias.
Quote:
The track forecast has continued to nudge a bit farther west, however that trend appears to be stable or ending now, and I think we're close to the maximum for how far west Delta will track.
The last big holdout, the European model, which had been advertising landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border has shifted east by a good 25 miles or more today, and virtually all reliable model guidance now has Delta's landfall occurring between Cameron, LA and the western edge of Vermilion Bay, or very close to/slightly east of where Laura made landfall. A word of advice: Don't focus too closely on every wobble and maneuver Delta makes over the next 24-48 hours. While there is still a small degree of uncertainty on the exact track of Delta, the odds that there would be a significant enough shift to detrimentally impact the Houston area is very, very, very small. We all brace ourselves for The Turn during these events, and it will happen.
So like Laura, it seems that the European model is finally coming together and moving east. The NHC appears to have been correct that it continued to show western bias.
Intensity drop. Now 85mph
The story isn't that [DeSantis] "couldn't win" the primary. The story is that an overwhelming majority of our population is heinously stupid. 50% of them vote for communists. 75% of the remaining 50% vote for Trump, who cant win. When the majority of the opposition party insists on voting for an opposition candidate who can't win, you get exactly the government you deserve. - Well Endowed Ag
New track at 10pm,
Per NHC
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again.
Some weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf
coast on Friday
Per NHC
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again.
Some weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf
coast on Friday
Lake Charles is under mandatory evacuation. Reports are gas stations are packed with long lines.
Warnings now issued for the gulf coast. Galveston under TS warning. Delta has saddled westward in latest tracking, though projected landfall appears unchanged (see interactive map- past track)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/211609.shtml?gm_track#contents
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/211609.shtml?gm_track#contents
The story isn't that [DeSantis] "couldn't win" the primary. The story is that an overwhelming majority of our population is heinously stupid. 50% of them vote for communists. 75% of the remaining 50% vote for Trump, who cant win. When the majority of the opposition party insists on voting for an opposition candidate who can't win, you get exactly the government you deserve. - Well Endowed Ag
We are headed to Florida for a wedding.
Leaving tomm afternoon and stopping in mobile for the night.
Y'all think have any traffic or road closures getting to mobile tomm afternoon headed straight I-10?
Leaving tomm afternoon and stopping in mobile for the night.
Y'all think have any traffic or road closures getting to mobile tomm afternoon headed straight I-10?
bullard21k said:
We are headed to Florida for a wedding.
Leaving tomm afternoon and stopping in mobile for the night.
Y'all think have any traffic or road closures getting to mobile tomm afternoon headed straight I-10?
Traffic through Baton Rouge sucks at any time of the year, day or night. I would back-road around that, if you can.
If LC is under a mandatory evacuation, there's going to be tonnns of traffic.
There is no way in hell that I would make that drive bullard. Cancel your plans to attend, or fly if you must go.
I'm on NOLA for work. Hoping to get back home today/tonight. Have a feeling the drive back is gonna suck.
And I would take the loop around LC instead of going over that rickety bridge on I-10 whether traffic is bad or not.
For sure. Made the drive to NOLA and back a couple of times. Constant roadwork and inevitable wrecks. I usually enjoy driving but it blows under normal circumstances.
"Licks taint" is a very good description for that drive nowadays.
And you might get to see some bears on the side of I-20 in NE Louisiana. They're everywhere up there now. My aunt had one in her yard in Talullah a few days ago.
FIFYJ.D. c/o 05 said:
"Licks taint" is a very good description forthat driveLouisiana nowadays.
This. I evacuated lake Charles to Houston for Laura around 3:00 the day before, and it took me over 4 hours to get back. That I-10 construction makes it a pain in the ass right now.
how is I-10 between houston and baton rouge ALWAYS under construction??
I'm driving either I-10 or I-20 east on Sunday morning. Game day decision right now. Most probably 20, unless I get reports 10 is clear as of Saturday night.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
You'll likely be ok on Sunday. Saturday could be dicey.
For perspective, I was in NOLA for Laura, which came through on Thursday and I drove back to Houston the next Sunday with relatively no issues (some rubberneckers to look at damage).
On the plus side, a lot of crap already got torn down, so the damage may not be as bad on i10 this go round.
For perspective, I was in NOLA for Laura, which came through on Thursday and I drove back to Houston the next Sunday with relatively no issues (some rubberneckers to look at damage).
On the plus side, a lot of crap already got torn down, so the damage may not be as bad on i10 this go round.
ya I made that drive west through LC about three weeks ago. The damage to the trees on I-10 was more than I was expecting to see.
I feel sorry for those folks. Many just got power and this one will for sure knock down more trees and already stressed branches.
I feel sorry for those folks. Many just got power and this one will for sure knock down more trees and already stressed branches.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
TRIDENT said:
There is no way in hell that I would make that drive bullard. Cancel your plans to attend, or fly if you must go.
I hear ya but not much choice at this point. I guess we will head north for a few hours and the just start heading east as best as possible.
I'll report back at midnight when I'm out of gas stranded in Alabama somewhere
Honestly, I'd leave today or plan not to go.bullard21k said:
We are headed to Florida for a wedding.
Leaving tomm afternoon and stopping in mobile for the night.
Y'all think have any traffic or road closures getting to mobile tomm afternoon headed straight I-10?
AgLiving06 said:Honestly, I'd leave today or plan not to go.bullard21k said:
We are headed to Florida for a wedding.
Leaving tomm afternoon and stopping in mobile for the night.
Y'all think have any traffic or road closures getting to mobile tomm afternoon headed straight I-10?
We are leaving today at 3. That post was last night.
Look at Southwest flights. Last minute flights to Pensacola and Panama City Beach (i.e, TODAY) are only $119 each way. Heck, even MCO can be had tomorrow for under $200.bullard21k said:TRIDENT said:
There is no way in hell that I would make that drive bullard. Cancel your plans to attend, or fly if you must go.
I hear ya but not much choice at this point. I guess we will head north for a few hours and the just start heading east as best as possible.
I'll report back at midnight when I'm out of gas stranded in Alabama somewhere
bullard21k said:TRIDENT said:
There is no way in hell that I would make that drive bullard. Cancel your plans to attend, or fly if you must go.
I hear ya but not much choice at this point. I guess we will head north for a few hours and the just start heading east as best as possible.
I'll report back at midnight when I'm out of gas stranded in Alabama somewhere
um, you absolutely do have a choice
bullard21k said:
I'll report back at midnight when I'm out of gas stranded in Alabama somewhere
The story isn't that [DeSantis] "couldn't win" the primary. The story is that an overwhelming majority of our population is heinously stupid. 50% of them vote for communists. 75% of the remaining 50% vote for Trump, who cant win. When the majority of the opposition party insists on voting for an opposition candidate who can't win, you get exactly the government you deserve. - Well Endowed Ag
LOL.
And who passes on the opportunity to use a hurricane as an excuse to skip a wedding? I've used far, far weaker excuses. And Bullard actually has a semi-legitimate reason for not getting on the road.
And who passes on the opportunity to use a hurricane as an excuse to skip a wedding? I've used far, far weaker excuses. And Bullard actually has a semi-legitimate reason for not getting on the road.
bullard21k said:
We are headed to Florida for a wedding.
Leaving tomm afternoon and stopping in mobile for the night.
Y'all think have any traffic or road closures getting to mobile tomm afternoon headed straight I-10?
Vaya con Dios, bullard.
Significant might be a bit of understatement for ~100 miles of maroon roads.
Google maps says it is currently over two hours from Lake Charles to Orange.
Google maps says it is currently over two hours from Lake Charles to Orange.
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