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Tropical two-fer

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jenn96
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In reply to FHKChE07 • 10:26p, 8/24/20
AG
FHKChE07 said:
Yeah. That is my concern now. During Harvey it was just me and my wife. Now we have a 2 year old and a 9 month old and she is likely to be called in as a nurse to live at the hospital. Just trying to figure out what to do so I can leave when the time is right. I'm not concerned about the wind or the rain. I'm concerned about having two kids and no power and nowhere to get to.

Yep. Mine are 7 and 10 and with no power and no where to go it will be utterly miserable. My husband is a cop so he'll be out working the minute the storm ends.
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atag
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10:29p, 8/24/20
AG
4 and 10 here yo here. My husband and i both work for heb so we will be the last to close and first to open. Kids will probably go to my mother in laws in Livingston if this thing starts heading toward us.
proudest member of the fightin texas aggie class of 2005.
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dallasag00
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10:31p, 8/24/20
AG
I rode out Ike in west Houston (I-10 & BW8) and that night remains one of the most terrifying of my life. Storm came in basically at sunset, power lost a few hours later and then the winds ripped for a good 12 hours. Could hear trees cracking and crashing every few minutes. When the sun came up I realized you couldn't drive more than 200 feet in any one direction from my driveway due to all the downed trees. Went without power for over 2 weeks. That day I promised myself and family if we have another cat 2+ with a direct hit towards Houston I'd leave. That will still be my plan but it'll be right when the storm is rolling into Galveston. Not getting caught up in traffic nightmare.
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Air Force Ags
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10:32p, 8/24/20
AG
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Air Force Ags
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10:34p, 8/24/20
AG
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Air Force Ags
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10:35p, 8/24/20
AG
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94chem
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10:35p, 8/24/20
I left for Rita right at landfall. Drove to College Station. No traffic. At all. Looked like the Oregon trail on 105, except with hot dog wrappers and stalled cars instead of covered wagons.

Stayed at home for Ike in Kingwood. No power for 8 days. Had an 8 month baby, a 4 year old, and a 5 year old. Had to listen to AG's getting pummeled by Miami on radio.
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Air Force Ags
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10:36p, 8/24/20
AG
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94chem
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10:37p, 8/24/20
Had a colleague who evacuated to Beaumont for Rita. If you head S or E, don't go too soon.
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Air Force Ags
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10:45p, 8/24/20
AG
Still uncertainty in track due to inability of models handling strength of upper-level ridge. It is stronger than forecasted & may continue to build. If so, the northward turn will occur further west & SE TX Coast will be under the fun. Also, still some uncertainty how TD Marco's circulation will impact steering flow. Bottom line: If you live in or near the cone, you had best be ready for a Major Hurricane (Cat 3 or >)! If track moves 50-75 west, you may not have time to react if not ready, which is not too good with a Cat 3 or worse storm coming at you. Y'all be safe! I will pray for best outcome!
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Gig-Em2003
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11:03p, 8/24/20
AG
Tropical Tidbits video above is great. What scares me about the forecasts for this storm is how no one appears to be talking about a shift east to NoLa. All concerns seem to revolve around a western shift.
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Cromagnum
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11:14p, 8/24/20
AG
Saw where the UK model is now west of previous to go along with the Euro above. I think the 4 AM and 10 AM track updates will be very telling.

Edit: Canadian model also now way west.
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TexAgsSean
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In reply to Cromagnum • 11:35p, 8/24/20
AG
Cromagnum said:
Saw where the UK model is now west of previous to go along with the Euro above. I think the 4 AM and 10 AM track updates will be very telling.

Edit: Canadian model also now way west.
Do you happen to have links to these? I'm not doubting you, but I'm pretty new to all of the different weather models.
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Beat40
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11:37p, 8/24/20
Tomorrow morning will be interesting for sure. Hoping for something definitive one way or another so we can decide to bug out or stay.
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TXAG14
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11:38p, 8/24/20
I have seen this theory with forecasting in general.

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spadilly
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11:40p, 8/24/20
S
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Faustus
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 11:50p, 8/24/20
Kenneth_2003 said:
Yeah. He's a remnant surface low.

He dead.
In Gen X terms he's all but a C.H.U.D.
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P.H. Dexippus
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In reply to FHKChE07 • 11:55p, 8/24/20
AG
FHKChE07 said:
I'm not concerned about the wind or the rain. I'm concerned about having two kids and no power and nowhere to get to.
. So in other words, your average 25 yo Texan 100 years ago.
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Jugstore Cowboy
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In reply to TXAG14 • 12:03a, 8/25/20
AG
Yeah there were a lot of news stories back in the Spring about reduced air travel impacting data used in forecasts.
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BrazosDog02
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In reply to spadilly • 12:09a, 8/25/20
AG
spadilly said:


I have a beef. Why don't these guys stop click baiting. There has been ZERO significant change. There might be tomorrow and this may be an indicator but as of now, it's completely unnecessary to scare the piss out of a bunch of people that are possibly going to have a long day tomorrow and an even longer end of week.
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Seabreeze
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4:11a, 8/25/20
4am track, NHC now forecasting a major landfall at 115mph

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Agasaurus Tex
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4:30a, 8/25/20
AG
I'm afraid this could get really bad for this area. Headed for Austin in the morning.

.....and reading the Discussion makes it sound even worse than the forecast.
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TopFlightReject
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In reply to Agasaurus Tex • 4:41a, 8/25/20
Agasaurus Tex said:
I'm afraid this could get really bad for this area. Headed for Austin in the morning.

.....and reading the Discussion makes it sound even worse than the forecast.


Agreed and I can't believe they'd hide that down in the Discussion. The ensembles have been showing it since yesterday and now the operational runs are starting to catch up but the NHC doesn't want it to look like another windshield wiper effect so they make a gradual shift to the West in the forecast track. Understandable for anyone not living in this area and who is just observing. But the time to evacuate and prep is coming to an end soon. Hope everyone can read past the forecast track and make an informed decision.
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LostInLA07
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4:41a, 8/25/20
AG
I guess we'll know later today if the track holds or if there is a shift west and we actually need to pay attention in Houston?
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Seabreeze
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4:45a, 8/25/20
Morning GFS run.
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LostInLA07
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In reply to Seabreeze • 4:47a, 8/25/20
Seabreeze
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4:52a, 8/25/20
Not trying to be a doom and gloomer, but something to think about. If your're going to leave you probably need to do it soon before the freeways get jammed up. Channel 13 is pushing those panic buttons pretty hard this morning.
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LostInLA07
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In reply to Seabreeze • 5:05a, 8/25/20
AG
The big red swirly thing is still over Beaumont as of the AM news so there is still time to escape. If they move the red swirly over Houston and change the Harris County color to pink it will be Ike 2.0.
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Anti-taxxer
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In reply to Seabreeze • 5:07a, 8/25/20
AG
Seabreeze said:
Not trying to be a doom and gloomer, but something to think about. If your're going to leave you probably need to do it soon before the freeways get jammed up. Channel 13 is pushing those panic buttons pretty hard this morning.

No ***** Travis Herzog has been bleeding on Facebook all night.
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Anti-taxxer
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In reply to Agasaurus Tex • 5:07a, 8/25/20
AG
Agasaurus Tex said:
I'm afraid this could get really bad for this area. Headed for Austin in the morning.

.....and reading the Discussion makes it sound even worse than the forecast.

What discussion? Where do you see that?
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GEA89
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5:10a, 8/25/20
AG
What will determine whether this is a Houston or central Louisiana lean for landfall is the strength of the high to the East. If it's weaker the storm will push East, if it's stronger it will push the storm farther West. How strong that high is or will be this evening will have to be determined later and thus the discrepancy between the European model and all the rest of the models. At this point all the models are guessing on that issue. Depending upon where you are the strength of that high will determine Laura's path
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camelclub
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5:12a, 8/25/20
AG
Is everyone more anxious about this than u were Harvey at this poinf?
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SpringAg92
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5:17a, 8/25/20
I have not been in the area long. How concerned should I be in The Woodlands/Spring area? I was here for Harvey (and left), but my particular neighborhood did not end up flooding. Is the major concern here the wind?
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tommyjohn
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5:20a, 8/25/20
No power will be the biggest concern.

Ike was still a Cat1 that far north. It wasn't a fun night but I am in The Woodlands and not leaving.
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Anti-taxxer
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In reply to camelclub • 5:22a, 8/25/20
AG
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