Looks like it's about to pass over the western end of Cuba.
Tropical two-fer
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Last: 3 yr ago by V8Aggie
tk for tu juan said:
COVID forums as a favorite? Shame
To keep tabs on all those Doomers so I can pivot
8:55 for discussion on ridge and trough steering Laura
BowSowy said:They said that about today. This is starting to feel like two more weeksSeabreeze said:
By noon tomorrow we will know. A few miles either way make a huge difference
By this time next week, we will definitely know.
Levi is really good. Have learned a lot from his videos. All depends on that high pressure. If it is stronger than what some models show we could be in trouble.
That was really interesting. Thanks for sharing that!
Yep, I mainly stick to his website/videos and NHC updates during potential threats
Well that wouldn't be ideal
gougler08 said:
Well that wouldn't be ideal
Since it's the ECMWF, actual pressure could be 20 to 30 mb lower too.
LostInLA07
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Pretty much all in agreement now. Intensity is now the question as of tonight. Cat 2 to 4 predicted as of now.
That was a great video! Thanks for sharing.
as levi pointed out, don't take the spaghetti models overlapping as a measure of certainty. there are still some variables at play as he says in the video
it's still got plenty of room to move west
agreement doesn't mean all that
agreement doesn't mean all that
SLAM said:gougler08 said:
Well that wouldn't be ideal
Since it's the ECMWF, actual pressure could be 20 to 30 mb lower too.
Any other good news you want to pile on?
Anti-taxxer said:SLAM said:gougler08 said:
Well that wouldn't be ideal
Since it's the ECMWF, actual pressure could be 20 to 30 mb lower too.
Any other good news you want to pile on?
It will be followed up by an asteroid strike in November right before the election!
SLAM said:Anti-taxxer said:SLAM said:gougler08 said:
Well that wouldn't be ideal
Since it's the ECMWF, actual pressure could be 20 to 30 mb lower too.
Any other good news you want to pile on?
It will be followed up by an asteroid strike in November right before the election!
Well, by this point, I'll take it.
Guess Marco is dead? No more updates?
Yeah. He's a remnant surface low.
He dead.
He dead.
RangerRick9211 said:CincyAg said:SLAM said:
For every one model of the storm coming to Houston there are a dozen with it heading to SW Louisiana.
HMON concluded a TS into SW LA for 12Z compared to Cat. 4 into the TX/LA border at 6Z. It's frustrating. Cat 4 to TS in one iteration.
A model changed landfall and category in 6 hours? Is that what this means?
Looking at the radar there's not even any rain around it at this point.
Marco took the bullet for his love the evil ***** Laura to survive
RangerRick9211 said:CincyAg said:SLAM said:
For every one model of the storm coming to Houston there are a dozen with it heading to SW Louisiana.
HMON concluded a TS into SW LA for 12Z compared to Cat. 4 into the TX/LA border at 6Z. It's frustrating. Cat 4 to TS in one iteration.
We'll see. Saw that the guy posting the tweet also has predicted the next major storm 10 days out. Who does that? These guys can't even get a 5 day pattern right, let alone something like as complex as a hurricane. So color me a little skeptical of the source.
Tell you what, if Chita comes out in red on Wed you know we're ****ed.
Anti-taxxer said:RangerRick9211 said:CincyAg said:SLAM said:
For every one model of the storm coming to Houston there are a dozen with it heading to SW Louisiana.
HMON concluded a TS into SW LA for 12Z compared to Cat. 4 into the TX/LA border at 6Z. It's frustrating. Cat 4 to TS in one iteration.
A model changed landfall and category in 6 hours? Is that what this means?
More wiper effect is what it means. East west east west on operational runs. HMON is smoking something on magnitude this run, but it highlights the problem - no one knows.
Honestly, no one knows. My plan is to see how the cards fall from CS. I'm duecing out of metro Houston tomorrow with my kid and the wife stays back as ride out at MDA.
Is that the latest model run?
LostInLA07 said:
Is that the latest model run?
Yes and that's generally considered the best model nowadays.
SLAM said:LostInLA07 said:
Is that the latest model run?
Yes and that's generally considered the best model nowadays.
Again, that's ensemble, not operational. That's not one model, but hundreds with with minor tweaks to inputs.
I think the big question is has someone told Laura that she needs to have a mask on before entering Harris County?
Unless I get my alphabet soup of the models wrong, it's also been consistently showing further west, right? Or is the ensemble different (entirely) from the deterministic models?
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