Daily Charts

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Fitch
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3:37p, 10/11/20
AG
Oh I agree. It's crazy.

But so is the nonsense line that's been on repeat implying liberal boogeymen are having a go of things.

Just a lie some have convinced themselves of to feel a little control in a world where they have none. It's tiresome, but at least that will be over in a few weeks.
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cone
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In reply to Fitch • 5:14p, 10/11/20
AG
so wait

you're saying it's not political?
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Fitch
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In reply to cone • 7:06p, 10/11/20
AG
It is whatever people make it to be, right?
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culdeus
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6:59a, 10/21/20
AG
Here's someone tracking each hospital zone in Texas and some other good charts.

https://covid.csullender.com/

El Paso is really struggling.
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Fitch
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2:59p, 10/25/20
AG
Statewide Charts




Regional Breakdown
Note: Some charts show "secondary peaks" where the state released a backlog of case data all at once.






Border Regions



Statewide Fatality Demos


All as of 10.24.20. Data from https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/
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Aust Ag
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3:22p, 10/25/20
AG
Thanks for posting.

What's up with the Cases increasing? I don't really feel like behaviors are all that different now vs say, 60 days ago.
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CowtownAg06
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3:24p, 10/25/20
AG
Great info....
Looks like things are still at lows across Texas with exception of Panhandle and DFW. Any clues as to that's driving those regions vs rest of the state?
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Aust Ag
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In reply to CowtownAg06 • 3:30p, 10/25/20
AG
I think as the poster said a few spots above, this may have to do with the El Paso spike. Austin is about as low as it's ever been.
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Fitch
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3:46p, 10/25/20
AG
Dallas and Tarrant Counties are just about equal in terms of case increases. No clue what's going on there and would prefer not to get slammed for guessing.


El Paso is driving a lot of the West Texas area...I corrected the charts above from "Panhandle," although Lubbock and Amarillo are seeing an uptick. Best guess on El Paso is a lot of intermixing from Cuidad Juarez, although they're trailing somewhat.



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Dan Scott
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In reply to Aust Ag • 4:34p, 10/25/20
AG
October 7th was the last announcement for new openings. Restaurants up to 75% from 50% and bars up to 50% from 0% in counties where judge said it was ok. I think Harris County is only county that decided to keep bars closed.

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Cepe
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4:36p, 10/25/20
AG
It has to pass through the population IMO. The areas that spike are seeing their first wave I think. The death rates still seem to be tailing down so that's good and what is more important than number of cases.

Until a vaccine comes out best hope is for healthy young to pass it around while protecting the elderly
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to Aust Ag • 4:48p, 10/25/20
AG
Aust Ag said:
I think as the poster said a few spots above, this may have to do with the El Paso spike. Austin is about as low as it's ever been.


San Antonio as well, hospitalization in pre-July wave territory but the trend isn't dropping, not sure it'll get lower 200 across the whole area for awhile. Hopefully doesn't spike again.

https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/2868375/embed
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wreckncrew
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In reply to Fitch • 6:15p, 10/25/20
AG
I have no idea what is causing our spike again. It may be due to the tech students, but we are not getting that information like we were in the beginning. The mayor is about to shut down bars again and limit restaurants to 50% capacity.

We have had more deaths than usual as well. They are concerned about the hospitalizations right now because it is above a certain percentage. The number of hospital beds being used is way under the number available so it doesn't make sense.

Another thing is they will be discontinuing elective surgeries until this magic percentage is met. I really hope there is some pushback from these hospitals and bars.
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Fitch
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7:40p, 10/25/20
AG
Hospitalizations by Trauma Service Region (map in last panel)




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wessimo
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In reply to Fitch • 8:01p, 10/25/20
AG
Very interesting to see how different things are in different regions.

Any theories as to why this is happening?

Is the "burnout" theory dead at this point? It seems like a lot of data backing that was from Europe where cases have been through the roof.
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Fitch
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In reply to wessimo • 8:29p, 10/25/20
AG
Just guesses, no real theories. Putting these charts together today was the first time in six or seven weeks I'd really looked at the data (work has been crazy, we're back in the office and I've been traveling while there are great Covid airfare deals).

My sense is that it's a mixed bag. Some regions are seeing community spread in earnest for the first time or only got a glancing blow in July. Some regions that had more serious bouts in July aren't necessarily seeing big growth.

I don't think it's by chance that the regions with upticks are further west and have more influence from recent cold fronts, but candidly have no real basis for that. Best guess, this is just what coronaviruses do and nobody can control them. They're seasonal and we're going into the start of the season.

I don't know that I ever bought into the burnout at 20% theory for a host of reasons, but if it were in fact the case the white paper I read purporting it necessarily relied on mitigating measures to hit that low of a figure. Pull back on them and the models predict secondary waves until a higher population immunity is acquired.
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beerad12man
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8:39p, 10/25/20
AG
Nm
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Aust Ag
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In reply to Fitch • 8:41a, 10/26/20
AG
Do we really know yet how colder weather affects Covid? Seems Texas got hit the worst when it was hottest.
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FrioAg 00
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In reply to Aust Ag • 8:43a, 10/26/20
AG
Aust Ag said:
Do we really know yet how colder weather affects Covid? Seems Texas got hit the worst when it was hottest.


The temperature effects human behavior, which then impacts the spread of viruses.

Extreme cold or extreme heat both drive people inside more, which increases proximity to others and increases spread

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ETFan
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In reply to Aust Ag • 8:45a, 10/26/20
Aust Ag said:
Do we really know yet how colder weather affects Covid? Seems Texas got hit the worst when it was hottest.
Completely made up theory, but crazy hot Texas weather drives people inside, a great place for spread. Winter should do the same.
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goodAg80
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8:57a, 10/26/20
AG
Another problem in Winter for all airborne diseases is that cool dry air leads to smaller droplets that come out of peoples mouths when they breath, sneeze and cough. The smaller droplets float in the air longer so the disease spreads more easily.
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Cepe
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9:06a, 10/26/20
AG
I think I've seen posted on here that coronaviruses have a definite "season", just like the flu. And its not when you think it would be.

I personally think it has a lot to do with Vit D levels in some ways
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beerad12man
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9:08a, 10/26/20
AG
So in general, unless I'm misreading them or just seeing what I want to, those graphs seem to spike less than before in areas that already had a major spike, suggesting some kind of immunity within communities. The big spikes are areas that didn't have one before. Only time will tell them more clearly.

This is with the least amount of mitigation we have had in a long, long time. Less and less people give a crap any more. It's gone on too long.
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Beat40
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In reply to ETFan • 9:15a, 10/26/20
ETFan said:
Aust Ag said:
Do we really know yet how colder weather affects Covid? Seems Texas got hit the worst when it was hottest.
Completely made up theory, but crazy hot Texas weather drives people inside, a great place for spread. Winter should do the same.


You seem to be completely ignoring the fact we shut everything down in Texas during the cold in the beginning of the year when probably 1% or less of the Texas population had the virus. It was always going to spread when we opened things back up, which confidently was the summer.

We don't know when this virus' seasonality will be because we haven't even seen it a year. You cannot claim it's a completely made up theory based on that alone.

The theory at least is based on historical trends where sickness generally seems to increase in the late fall / early winter.
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ETFan
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In reply to Beat40 • 9:19a, 10/26/20
Beat40 said:
ETFan said:
Aust Ag said:
Do we really know yet how colder weather affects Covid? Seems Texas got hit the worst when it was hottest.
Completely made up theory, but crazy hot Texas weather drives people inside, a great place for spread. Winter should do the same.


You seem to be completely ignoring the fact we shut everything down in Texas during the cold in the beginning of the year when probably 1% or less of the Texas population had the virus. It was always going to spread when we opened things back up, which confidently was the summer.

We don't know when this virus' seasonality will be because we haven't even seen it a year. You cannot claim it's a completely made up theory based on that alone.

The theory at least is based on historical trends where sickness generally seems to increase in the late fall / early winter.
I think I worded my response poorly. I was saying "This is my completely made up theory: hjot, cold, etc"

I wasn't calling another poster's or general theory made up.
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Beat40
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In reply to Aust Ag • 9:20a, 10/26/20
Aust Ag said:
Do we really know yet how colder weather affects Covid? Seems Texas got hit the worst when it was hottest.


I don't know how we can since we haven't even gone through 4 seasons with the virus.

You do have to remember we shut stuff all the way down in the middle of the winter where sickness generally does spread more rapidly. We shut Texas down with very few cases of COVID. We always knew when we opened back up the cases would rise, which happened to be summer.

The thought was based on historical trends of sickness.

Long way to say that in my opinion we really just have to see what happens in the next year, and we may not know until things open up normally.
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Beat40
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In reply to ETFan • 9:23a, 10/26/20
ETFan said:
Beat40 said:
ETFan said:
Aust Ag said:
Do we really know yet how colder weather affects Covid? Seems Texas got hit the worst when it was hottest.
Completely made up theory, but crazy hot Texas weather drives people inside, a great place for spread. Winter should do the same.


You seem to be completely ignoring the fact we shut everything down in Texas during the cold in the beginning of the year when probably 1% or less of the Texas population had the virus. It was always going to spread when we opened things back up, which confidently was the summer.

We don't know when this virus' seasonality will be because we haven't even seen it a year. You cannot claim it's a completely made up theory based on that alone.

The theory at least is based on historical trends where sickness generally seems to increase in the late fall / early winter.
I think I worded my response poorly. I was saying "This is my completely made up theory: hjot, cold, etc"

I wasn't calling another poster's or general theory made up.


Gotcha. My bad. I still don't think it's a terrible theory. In my opinion, I just don't think we'll honestly know until this plays out a full year with less heavy regulation.

I think Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar are going to be really telling.
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94chem
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In reply to Fitch • 8:16p, 10/26/20
Fitch said:
Statewide Charts




Regional Breakdown
Note: Some charts show "secondary peaks" where the state released a backlog of case data all at once.






Border Regions



Statewide Fatality Demos


All as of 10.24.20. Data from https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/


That pie chart adds up to 137%. Is it in radians or something?
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Fitch
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In reply to 94chem • 8:29p, 10/26/20
AG
Denominator formula wasn't grabbing the right figure. Fixed it above.

Thanks for the heads up.
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plain_o_llama
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11:05a, 10/29/20
Latest Dallas County Summary is available

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/covid-19/hhs-summary/COVID-19-DCHHS-Summary-102720.pdf







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plain_o_llama
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11:11a, 10/29/20
This might be interesting to follow.


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Cepe
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In reply to plain_o_llama • 11:17a, 10/29/20
AG
plain_o_llama said:
Latest Dallas County Summary is available

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/covid-19/hhs-summary/COVID-19-DCHHS-Summary-102720.pdf







So 0% Flu and 100% COVID? There have been NO flu cases? That seems weird if I'm reading it right. . .
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Fitch
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In reply to Cepe • 11:35a, 10/29/20
AG
https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3147473
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deadbq03
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In reply to Cepe • 11:41a, 10/29/20
AG
Cepe said:
plain_o_llama said:
Latest Dallas County Summary is available

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/covid-19/hhs-summary/COVID-19-DCHHS-Summary-102720.pdf







So 0% Flu and 100% COVID? There have been NO flu cases? That seems weird if I'm reading it right. . .
Look at last years flu... there's like 1 per week from weeks 39-43. Not strange at all to think there's none happening yet this year.
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AgsMyDude
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4:32p, 11/4/20
AG

El Paso now 2nd in TX in hospitalizations (16.5% of the total). Amarillo, Longview, Lubbock ahead of SA is pretty significant as well.



% over time. This shows that it's really hard for a TSA area to maintain a high hospitalization rate as the virus burns through the area.

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