Another tough day. Still not as bad as NYC had it.
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Mexico, as in the entire country Keegan. Doesn't explain Houston, Dallas or Austin
Fully explain? No. Contribute? Absolutely. And in a not insignificant way.
Move the date slider here. You can see the intensity in south Texas radiate north over the past few weeks.
https://healthweather.us/?date=2020-07-06&mode=Observed®ionId=US
Move the date slider here. You can see the intensity in south Texas radiate north over the past few weeks.
https://healthweather.us/?date=2020-07-06&mode=Observed®ionId=US
Would be interesting to see the stats of citizen vs non citizen in the RGV (and all other border counties in the US) but it's probably not allowed to be mentioned.Keegan99 said:
Fully explain? No. Contribute? Absolutely. And in a not insignificant way.
Move the date slider here. You can see the intensity in south Texas radiate north over the past few weeks.
https://healthweather.us/?date=2020-07-06&mode=Observed®ionId=US
At my wife's hospital, 43% of all positive cases have happened in the last week, there's a 75% increase in hospitalizations from this time last month and the current ICU patients are double what they were anytime in may and June.
Where is hospital?
Cyp0111 said:
Where is hospital?
Missouri
What part of Missouri?
Springfield
Probably due to Mexico.
goodAg80 said:
Another tough day. Still not as bad as NYC had it.
Until it's people filling up hospitals and dying, I contend that the number infected is pointless to follow.
Philip J Fry said:goodAg80 said:
Another tough day. Still not as bad as NYC had it.
Until it's people filling up hospitals and dying, I contend that the number infected is pointless to follow.
Disagree to an extent. Predictably, increased positive cases leads to increased hospitalizations, increased patients on ventilators, and eventually leads to increased deaths. Deaths are already trending up in Texas. It seems we are starting to see some effect of the stricter measures taking place in SA, as our case number per day appear to be trending down. Responding quickly to rises in local cases should prevent large, abrupt spikes that cripple regional healthcare systems. Our ER is still seeing large numbers of COVID, but I'm hopeful for this positive trend in case numbers.
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To my eyes it looks like people are dying. What am I missing?Philip J Fry said:goodAg80 said:
Another tough day. Still not as bad as NYC had it.
Until it's people filling up hospitals and dying, I contend that the number infected is pointless to follow.
What happened in mid to late June to cause such a spike in Hidalgo County? It certainly wasn't the reopening or Memorial Day in May given when the spikes started. Whatever it is, it would really be instructive to know when thinking about how to effectively battle the virus.
More good news from Houston. It appears the tightening of restrictions has had a positive effect.
Cases have flattened out
Positive test rate has gone down from it's peak
And now hospitalizations appears to finally be responding, with 2 consecutive days of reductions after more than a month of steady growth
Dare I say that the mask order and closing bars had a positive effect. We could be back to "Phase 1" very soon:
Cases have flattened out
Positive test rate has gone down from it's peak
And now hospitalizations appears to finally be responding, with 2 consecutive days of reductions after more than a month of steady growth
Dare I say that the mask order and closing bars had a positive effect. We could be back to "Phase 1" very soon:
remind me what restrictions were tightened?
just the bars?
just the bars?
Bars closed, restaurant occupancy walked back are the two big ones I can remember
I'm willing to bet peoples habits changed.
Wore masks, ate take out, that kind of deal
Wore masks, ate take out, that kind of deal
Bars closed, a big source of spread according to the texags doctors working in ERs. But also I think the mask compliance went up with the mask order on businesses and people in general became more cautious again with all of the attention put on the spike.
I would say mask compliance is high in the general area i live. Up significantly in the last 2 weeks. For reference in the Oak forest/heights area.
- Bars closed/restaurant capacity 50% 12 days ago
- Mask order 5 days ago
The Bar closings probably had a decent impact but probably too early to tell on the mask order just yet IMO.
Ah yes but Houston required masks to be worn in businesses 2-3 weeks ago.
Through today.
Using random Buc-ees as a measure of mask compliance, I would agree. Early on (months ago), there a decent % of mask wearers, maybe as high as 50%. That dropped off to maybe 10-20% as recently as June 27. This weekend post mask order, I would say 95%+ mask use.Cyp0111 said:
I would say mask compliance is high in the general area i live. Up significantly in the last 2 weeks. For reference in the Oak forest/heights area.
15 days ago but yes, you're right, that's fair, was thinking of the state-wide orderHotardAg07 said:
Ah yes but Houston required masks to be worn in businesses 2-3 weeks ago.
Wouldn't we have started seeing the effect of that mask order 1-2 weeks ago?HotardAg07 said:
Ah yes but Houston required masks to be worn in businesses 2-3 weeks ago.
Cases and positive test rate have trended down or flat for the last 1-2 weeks, so I think that's what we've seen.
I wouldn't really expect any policy change one way or the other to show up as a trend in the data until maybe 5-6 weeks after the fact.
I'd expect it to show up pretty quick in new cases uncovered tbh
HotardAg07 said:
Cases and positive test rate have trended down or flat for the last 1-2 weeks, so I think that's what we've seen.
Gee I wonder why that is? Couldn't have anything to do with the 3+ weeks of no protests in Houston or Austin, where 60k+ people were gathered in close proximity or one another. It's all because they closed the bars and reduced capacity at restaurants.
Takes +/- a week for symptoms to start that would motivate getting tested. Add a week or two for test results to be returned and filter through the city, county and state public agencies. String together at least a week of case reports to establish a trend, or preferably two seven-day periods due to backlogs in testing, weekend non-reporting, etc.
That's the quick arithmetic to get to 5 weeks for primary level transmission effects resulting from policy changes. Could it happen sooner? Sure, but that's just how things seem to be tracking.
That's the quick arithmetic to get to 5 weeks for primary level transmission effects resulting from policy changes. Could it happen sooner? Sure, but that's just how things seem to be tracking.
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