It's been 2 weeks off and on since end of May and grown slowly. It's worth watching but it seems actually are better than the model.
CowtownAg06 said:
It's been 2 weeks off and on since end of May and grown slowly. It's worth watching but it seems actually are better than the model.
CowtownAg06 said:
They do a ton. There is a broad definition of elective. My Dad just had some cancer surgery that was put off due to COVID and was monitored ICU. He developed an infection and what was supposed to be 12 hr stay turned into 2 days. All good now, but it's a portion for sure.
The question is why has the positive rate climbed? The easy answer is the virus is simply spreading. This is undoubtedly true. However, could part of the positive rate increase be due to flu and allergies declining during the summer months? This would cause a change in the testing population, which could be a factor in positive rate increase. Further, it could be people who had some symptoms were less likely to go get tested in March/April out of fear of catching it if they didn't think they had it. Additionally, there were a lot of people turned away early on from testing because they hadn't traveled or been in direct contact with a positive case. All of this can change the population currently being tested, which could be leading to an increase in positive rate. So, the question I have is: is the virus spreading faster than before or could it actually be at the same rate, but the testing population has changed and we're finding more people than before?Gordo14 said:
Also think people should realize we are not at tests per day peak. That is not the reason why cases are going up. The reason why the spike in comfirmed cases has been the doubling in the positivity rate moreso than the test count. The fact that 10% of tests are positive and climbing is scary.
We're spreading this virus very quickly despite not having the population density of New York, having still semi-restricted social mobility, by having at least some adherence to mask wearing/social distancing practices all in the middle of the summer. If you have any doubts about the seasonal spread of the virus South America is showing how bad it can get. This does not bode well for October-vaccine. It's bad now, but people need to be appropriately concerned so that we have the social will power to mitigate this as best as we can. Without acknowledgement of the bad potential outcomes, we increase the odds of a worse outcome.
OlSarge92 said:
They are not doing enough to explain the statistics, what makes up the hospitalized. What makes up the positive cases, symptomatic vs. not.
Beat40 said:The question is why has the positive rate climbed? The easy answer is the virus is simply spreading. This is undoubtedly true. However, could part of the positive rate increase be due to flu and allergies declining during the summer months? This would cause a change in the testing population, which could be a factor in positive rate increase. Further, it could be people who had some symptoms were less likely to go get tested in March/April out of fear of catching it if they didn't think they had it. Additionally, there were a lot of people turned away early on from testing because they hadn't traveled or been in direct contact with a positive case. All of this can change the population currently being tested, which could be leading to an increase in positive rate. So, the question I have is: is the virus spreading faster than before or could it actually be at the same rate, but the testing population has changed and we're finding more people than before?Gordo14 said:
Also think people should realize we are not at tests per day peak. That is not the reason why cases are going up. The reason why the spike in comfirmed cases has been the doubling in the positivity rate moreso than the test count. The fact that 10% of tests are positive and climbing is scary.
We're spreading this virus very quickly despite not having the population density of New York, having still semi-restricted social mobility, by having at least some adherence to mask wearing/social distancing practices all in the middle of the summer. If you have any doubts about the seasonal spread of the virus South America is showing how bad it can get. This does not bode well for October-vaccine. It's bad now, but people need to be appropriately concerned so that we have the social will power to mitigate this as best as we can. Without acknowledgement of the bad potential outcomes, we increase the odds of a worse outcome.
Question: what do you mean by social will power?
To the part I've bolded - what's your confidence we have a vaccine for this?
This sounds plausible on the surface, but isn't necessarily true.Keegan99 said:
The testing population has undoubtedly changed.
Asymptomatic exposures know they can get a test. They're going to get tested even though they're asymptomatics, and learning they're positive. Job sites are blanket testing after exposures are exhibiting this phenomenon. As are smaller groups like families.
The value of a "case" today is very different from what it was a month ago, and bears little resemblance to one from two months ago.
Quote:
All that said, the proportion of all tests made up by "blanket" testing of at-risk populations compared to the number of people seeking tests (either due to illness or due to possible exposure) is very small.
There isn't a clean dividing line in time between different populations seeking tests. There is more testing going on today, but it's more of all groups, not a replacement of one group by another. But you're right, there is definitely a much greater percentage of tests running through my lab for which the response at the time of testing is "no symptoms".Keegan99 said:
You're talking blanket testing of closed, at-risk populations two months ago.
I'm talking blanket testing of job sites and families today.
The latter dwarfs the former by orders of magnitude. Texas ran 225k tests in the last week. Two months ago? We had run 225k tests total. From the start of the outbreak.
An example:
https://www.kbtx.com/2020/06/16/55-construction-workers-on-texas-am-campus-test-positive-for-covid-19/
One job site at A&M. 153 tests. 55 positives. But only six symptomatic cases. One brief hospitalization.Quote:
All that said, the proportion of all tests made up by "blanket" testing of at-risk populations compared to the number of people seeking tests (either due to illness or due to possible exposure) is very small.
Correct. But it creates non-random samples that boost positives.
And as I said, there is the larger issue of "potential exposures" seeking out tests now because they know they are available vs two months ago when they wouldn't even bother unless they were sick. Plenty of asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic cases.
If you had 50 cases in April, it generally meant you had 50 sick people showing up at a hospital.
But today, 50 cases could just mean a job site was tested.
The value of a case has changed.
oglaw said:
Just watched Sylvester Turners pc here in Houston. Says in the last two days have had over 1700 positive cases. Then says testing on these cases was done between June 9th -17th. Can somebody remind me what was happening before and during that time?
PJYoung said:
Hospitalization capacity is the focus now.
yukmonkey said:
Some humans are good at evaluating risk.
The majority are not and are fearful animals.
Your extreme pessimism is so tiring. It oozes out of every novel you post. Please take a break, dude.Gordo14 said:yukmonkey said:
Some humans are good at evaluating risk.
The majority are not and are fearful animals.
Really. In my experience humans are extremely overconfident and almost always underprice risk. The housing crisis being an absolutely perfect example. Or what's happening to unconventional E&Ps right now. I mean, I could go on for days on risk management, because that's a big part of my job.
But I'm sure you're brilliant at evaluating risk and not a fearful animal
oglaw said:
Just watched Sylvester Turners pc here in Houston. Says in the last two days have had over 1700 positive cases. Then says testing on these cases was done between June 9th -17th. Can somebody remind me what was happening before and during that time?
There seems very minimal evidence the protests caused anything. Mask usage and outdoor events together make it very hard to spread this thing (which was already known). Indoor vs. outdoor settings unmasked has 20x less spread out of a few studies now. With effective mask usage at 80% and outdoors it's entirely possible there is nearly no spread whatsoever. In this way the protests could really be used to drive policy to some extent (like football games and other sporting events outdoors could happen)kag00 said:oglaw said:
Just watched Sylvester Turners pc here in Houston. Says in the last two days have had over 1700 positive cases. Then says testing on these cases was done between June 9th -17th. Can somebody remind me what was happening before and during that time?
I really want to understand the impact of the protests on the spike. This is key data as the spike appears to correlate exactly to the mass gatherings. If we can determine that the mass gatherings were a main driver (or not) it would be very informative for future risk mitigation decisions.
Cases, positive test rate, ER visits, hospitalizations, ICU occupancy and deaths are rising in Houston. Cases and hospitalizations have started on an exponential path, not on the same growth rate as early-stages NYC, but still >9% average daily growth. You can see from all the graphs that Houston could be on a path to fill up their ICUs in the short term if the growth rate continues. The problem is that there is no will in this city do anything to reverse the trend.Old Buffalo said:PJYoung said:
Hospitalization capacity is the focus now.
Sort of.
The problem is there are too many variables and data is not comparable over extended periods of time.
First we tracked cases, but with increased testing and a greater population tested (i.e., not the sickest), that's not comparable.
Then we focus on deaths, but we find out the impact is greatly shifted towards those in LTC and higher age. One outbreak doesn't reflect the impact to society.
So now we've arrived at hospitalizations. However, we've introduced elective procedures into the mix and there are anecdotes of those already admitted testing positive. Further, length of stay is also extending - is this because we are treating earlier, know how to better treat, incentivized in other efforts?
The problem is we've been so focused on letting metrics make our decision rather than analyzing the risk profiles of age groups. We could have 10,000 cases tomorrow with an average age of 32 and that would be less impactful than a 200 person outbreak in a LTC facility. And until we face clear data (as allowed by HIPPA), all this is theoretical conjecturing.