On Sunday they were at "no concern". I've quit watching that indicator and now just paying attention to the outright rise.dragmagpuff said:The very next day, they said it was 5 weeks. And then would bounce between 2 and 5 weeks every other day. Clearly that metric is not reliable.rynning said:Well I bookmarked this post on June 4th and actually remembered to look it up two weeks later.rynning said:Bookmarked.dragmagpuff said:
TMC now saying that Current COVID-19 caseload growth trajectory suggests base ICU capacity could be exceeded in 2 weeks...
I checked the link, and we're still two weeks away. Very scary.
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
CowtownAg06 said:On Sunday they were at "no concern". I've quit watching that indicator and now just paying attention to the outright rise.dragmagpuff said:The very next day, they said it was 5 weeks. And then would bounce between 2 and 5 weeks every other day. Clearly that metric is not reliable.rynning said:Well I bookmarked this post on June 4th and actually remembered to look it up two weeks later.rynning said:Bookmarked.dragmagpuff said:
TMC now saying that Current COVID-19 caseload growth trajectory suggests base ICU capacity could be exceeded in 2 weeks...
I checked the link, and we're still two weeks away. Very scary.
You should look at it is maybe a 7 day average. If 6 of 7 days suggest concern, then it is concerning and meaningful.
In 10 days the ICU bed occupancy in Houston has gone up by >20%. Obviously, still below "normal ICU capacity", but 20% increases in 10 day increments is going to add up eventually.
I'm more worried about Texas tbh vs. rest of USA. We are not doing enough and it's just not sitting with me very well.
Realistically we're due for some "catch up".
Georgia peaked in April at 42 fatalities per day. Texas peaked in April at 38 fatalities per day, but Texas is 3x the population of Georgia.
A big part of the reason why Texas is looking "bad" now is because of our earlier success.
Even now, New York, a smaller state where the epidemic has "passed", has more fatalities per day than Texas.
Georgia peaked in April at 42 fatalities per day. Texas peaked in April at 38 fatalities per day, but Texas is 3x the population of Georgia.
A big part of the reason why Texas is looking "bad" now is because of our earlier success.
Even now, New York, a smaller state where the epidemic has "passed", has more fatalities per day than Texas.
We are well under capacity, so this is opinionated without much to substantiate it.Cyp0111 said:
I'm more worried about Texas tbh vs. rest of USA. We are not doing enough and it's just not sitting with me very well.
In my opinion, respectfully I believe we are doing enough because we have been and are continuing to meet our main goal with flying colors. .
These are very helpful charts! As we are seeing an increase in hospitalizations in Dallas, our family was just talking about what the normal capacity for hospital bed and ICU were etc. Thanks for sharing!
HotardAg07 said:
In 10 days the ICU bed occupancy in Houston has gone up by >20%. Obviously, still below "normal ICU capacity", but 20% increases in 10 day increments is going to add up eventually.
For people interested in Dallas data go to
https://www.dallascounty.org/covid-19/
and scroll down to Covid-19 Monitoring Data Link.
You seem to have to repeat the process every day rather than keep an open tab in a browser to
get the most recent report.
They don't show capacities in that link. That may be available elsewhere.
https://www.dallascounty.org/covid-19/
and scroll down to Covid-19 Monitoring Data Link.
You seem to have to repeat the process every day rather than keep an open tab in a browser to
get the most recent report.
They don't show capacities in that link. That may be available elsewhere.
Keegan99 said:
Realistically we're due for some "catch up".
Georgia peaked in April at 42 fatalities per day. Texas peaked in April at 38 fatalities per day, but Texas is 3x the population of Georgia.
A big part of the reason why Texas is looking "bad" now is because of our earlier success.
Even now, New York, a smaller state where the epidemic has "passed", has more fatalities per day than Texas.
This is exactly right. There are 38 states with more per capita COVID deaths than Texas. The only states with fewer deaths do not have any metro areas that are comparable to Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio.
Texas has done better than every single state by almost any measure considering the fact that it actually has several urban areas.
I suspect it is largely due to the fact that Texans, even in urban centers, tend to shy away from public transportation and cramped housing relative to the megacities in the NE and California/Washington.Gumby said:Keegan99 said:
Realistically we're due for some "catch up".
Georgia peaked in April at 42 fatalities per day. Texas peaked in April at 38 fatalities per day, but Texas is 3x the population of Georgia.
A big part of the reason why Texas is looking "bad" now is because of our earlier success.
Even now, New York, a smaller state where the epidemic has "passed", has more fatalities per day than Texas.
This is exactly right. There are 38 states with more per capita COVID deaths than Texas. The only states with fewer deaths do not have any metro areas that are comparable to Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio.
Texas has done better than every single state by almost any measure considering the fact that it actually has several urban areas.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Is that increase due to COVID admissions or the fact that elective procedures are beginning to ramp up again?Quote:
In 10 days the ICU bed occupancy in Houston has gone up by >20%. Obviously, still below "normal ICU capacity", but 20% increases in 10 day increments is going to add up eventually.
KidDoc said:I suspect it is largely due to the fact that Texans, even in urban centers, tend to shy away from public transportation and cramped housing relative to the megacities in the NE and California/Washington.Gumby said:Keegan99 said:
Realistically we're due for some "catch up".
Georgia peaked in April at 42 fatalities per day. Texas peaked in April at 38 fatalities per day, but Texas is 3x the population of Georgia.
A big part of the reason why Texas is looking "bad" now is because of our earlier success.
Even now, New York, a smaller state where the epidemic has "passed", has more fatalities per day than Texas.
This is exactly right. There are 38 states with more per capita COVID deaths than Texas. The only states with fewer deaths do not have any metro areas that are comparable to Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio.
Texas has done better than every single state by almost any measure considering the fact that it actually has several urban areas.
I dont think Texans are any more shy than people that live in Kansas, Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Vermont and New Hampshire. Yet Texas has a lower death rate than all of those states. I was thinking maybe warmer weather but Arizona is getting slammed and New Mexico and Florida are also much higher than Texas.
Unquestionably it's due to increased hospitalizations from CV
TMC breaks down the ICU on this chart. As of yesterday, 21% of ICU bed capacity is occupied by COVID. that is up from 17% a few days ago. It was hovering at 15-16 for a while before that.AggieUSMC said:Is that increase due to COVID admissions or the fact that elective procedures are beginning to ramp up again?Quote:
In 10 days the ICU bed occupancy in Houston has gone up by >20%. Obviously, still below "normal ICU capacity", but 20% increases in 10 day increments is going to add up eventually.
Hospitalizations by TSA Region
DFW Area
Houston Area
I-35 Corridor
Border Counties
Panhandle Area
North Texas
Brazos Valley
Houston Area
I-35 Corridor
Border Counties
Panhandle Area
North Texas
Brazos Valley
Follow the ethical skeptic on twitter. Has a lot of good information on all the numbers.
Texas is still sitting at 39th in the US in deaths per capita.
Gumby said:
Texas is still sitting at 39th in the US in deaths per capita.
The rate the virus is spreading right now, that will change.
Gordo14 said:Gumby said:
Texas is still sitting at 39th in the US in deaths per capita.
The rate the virus is spreading right now, that will change.
Maybe. Lots of younger folk testing positive right now. Why don't we wait and see?
Beat40 said:Gordo14 said:Gumby said:
Texas is still sitting at 39th in the US in deaths per capita.
The rate the virus is spreading right now, that will change.
Maybe. Lots of younger folk testing positive right now. Why don't we wait and see?
Sure. And we'll see deaths per capita go up. It's just a fact. We've already seen deaths go up. Lot of people trying to normalize the virus.
I hope I'm proven wrong, but hope doesn't change what's happening. So sure we can wait and see if you don't want to think about it. But somebody has to predict and model outcomes to make informed policy decisions.
Gordo14 said:Beat40 said:Gordo14 said:Gumby said:
Texas is still sitting at 39th in the US in deaths per capita.
The rate the virus is spreading right now, that will change.
Maybe. Lots of younger folk testing positive right now. Why don't we wait and see?
Sure. And we'll see deaths per capita go up. It's just a fact. We've already seen deaths go up. Lot of people trying to normalize the virus.
I hope I'm proven wrong, but hope doesn't change what's happening. So sure we can wait and see if you don't want to think about it. But somebody has to predict and model outcomes to make informed policy decisions.
Deaths are going up in all the other states as well. In fact Tennessee just moved ahead of Texas in deaths per capita in the last couple days.
Agreed. "Informed policy decisions"
Which is exactly the opposite of what's been done to date.
Which is exactly the opposite of what's been done to date.
Gordo14 said:Beat40 said:Gordo14 said:Gumby said:
Texas is still sitting at 39th in the US in deaths per capita.
The rate the virus is spreading right now, that will change.
Maybe. Lots of younger folk testing positive right now. Why don't we wait and see?
Sure. And we'll see deaths per capita go up. It's just a fact. We've already seen deaths go up. Lot of people trying to normalize the virus.
I hope I'm proven wrong, but hope doesn't change what's happening. So sure we can wait and see if you don't want to think about it. But somebody has to predict and model outcomes to make informed policy decisions.
Sure, it probably will. Not denying that. But you make it sound as if for certain Texas will become way worse than 39th. It's certainly possible we move up beyond 39th, but we will see how much.
My point is if the primary group of cases is younger, percentage wise, it will not rise nearly as high.
Old Buffalo said:
Agreed. "Informed policy decisions"
Which is exactly the opposite of what's been done to date.
We had plenty of data regarding risk levels for certain groups of people at the beginning from the time this got to the USA. We made no policy decisions at that time with those risk levels in mind and put millions on unemployment.
I hope we've learned our lesson and actually use whatever we data have today to truly make wise decisions based on what the data is showing, but honestly, I'm not entirely confident in the leaders' decision making at this point.
It does seem like private hospitals have done an awesome job of making use of the time that was provided to them to get prepared. They answered the call. I'm hoping private long term care facilities have done the same.
San Antonio hospital admits up 20% today?
Great results in the US on the most critical outcome.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:
Within the context of this chart, how are "hospitalizations" defined? A person is admitted and being treated primarily for Covid(they didn't show up for an elective and just test positive) and are occupying a bed, but just not in ICU and/or on a vent?
ICU capacity is getting tight in Harris.
link?
KlinkerAg11 said:
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/total-icu-bed-occupancy/
I'm sure there's some extended surge capacity potential, but sub 2 weeks of capacity remaining is a very ominous sign. And I believe they are using a linear model instead of what could be an exponential to project future hospitalizations. 2 weeks may be optimistic until we are digging into surge capacity... And unless something seriously changes the transmission rate soon, we'll be in a bad place within a month - surge capacity or otherwise.