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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Bruce Almighty • 7:30a, 6/16/20
AG
Bruce Almighty said:
So are cases going up, but deaths going down? In Springfield, where I live, we had 8 deaths during the shutdown with the last being on April 9th. Since we've reopened in early May, the number of cases have more than doubled, yet we are still sitting at 8 deaths. It just seems odd that we had 8 deaths in the first three weeks of our first case and zero in the last nine weeks.
I think that may be a result of the change in demographics of who is getting infected. The 20-30 yo crowd that seems to be the bulk of cases now has a very low risk of hospitalizations and death.

I think it hit a number of vulnerable high risk people early before they went into isolation which made it look really bad. Now it is the lower risk groups that are getting it.
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Keegan99
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 7:34a, 6/16/20
AG
Exactly. Not all cases are created equal.

This, along with targeted testing and testing volume, is why case counts cannot be compared over time.

A positive test result today is a very different creature, statistically speaking, than one from two months ago.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Fitch • 7:34a, 6/16/20
AG
Fitch said:
The way the article reads some ~60% of them were new in the last week, unless I misread.

The hospitalization metric they referenced is probably a refinement of the one determined by the UT model team, outlined in the below video at about 28:10.



The segment starting at 26:00 kind of has to make you go "huh".

**I don't think that will happen. Just providing a reference point from ~30 days ago.
I have no issue with the metric, more that they have a metric, they haven't cross the threshold, but are reacting as if they are. Yes, hospitalizations increased and it is something to keep an eye on and warn people about, but the constant changing of goal posts is annoying and destroys credibility.
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Dazed and Confused
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8:12a, 6/16/20
AG
Demographic change in admits, improvements in treatments, haven't seen the data yet. But glad deaths are not currently following hospitalization trend.
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TexasAggie008
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9:05a, 6/16/20
AG
any way to tell what % of state-wide hospitalizations are currently 20s &30s age ranges?
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PJYoung
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In reply to PJYoung • 12:59p, 6/16/20
AG
PJYoung said:
DFWTLR said:
PJYoung said:
Hospitalizations in Hidalgo County:



44 people currently hospitalized in a county of 900,000 and it's a black eye? Seems like they have nothing to worry about to me.

The black eye was for the trend. 12 on May 24th, 44 yesterday.

69 yesterday
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to Dazed and Confused • 1:27p, 6/16/20
AG
deaths do tend to lag hospitalizations so it could follow that trend, but maybe not
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PJYoung
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2:08p, 6/16/20
AG
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to PJYoung • 2:42p, 6/16/20
Jesus..25% hit rate? I dont think it was that high when they were strictly limiting who could get tested.
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chimpanzee
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4:48p, 6/16/20
Scary twitter graph notwithstanding. Here's Arizona's data website. Lots of info, nothing seems too stressed.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

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Big Al 1992
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 5:48p, 6/16/20
AG
Have family and friends that work at Seton. They are getting slammed. Not sure what capacity they are at or have but sounds like they are close to full.
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Fitch
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6:34p, 6/16/20
AG
Bit of an uptick.












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Sq 17
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 7:21p, 6/16/20
Duncan Idaho said:
Jesus..25% hit rate? I dont think it was that high when they were strictly limiting who could get tested.


I am guessing There has to be a prison in that group of data. That being said Things are definitely going the wrong way in AZ
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wessimo
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7:09a, 6/17/20
AG
4,098 new cases reported for Texas yesterday. The previous high (6/10) was 2,504.
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Keegan99
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In reply to wessimo • 7:11a, 6/17/20
AG
Not entirely correct. There was a new high, but it wasn't 4098.

Texas: "The reported cases for June 16 include 2,622 new cases and 1,476 cases that were previously diagnosed among Texas Department of Criminal Justice inmates but that had not been reported by local health departments (887 from Anderson County and 589 from Brazoria County)."
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wessimo
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In reply to Keegan99 • 7:41a, 6/17/20
AG
Thanks for the insight. They should have backdated those cases.
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Keegan99
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In reply to wessimo • 7:46a, 6/17/20
AG
States across the country have demonstrated their inability to transparently and effectively communicate data throughout the course of this pandemic.

In some cases it's political (eg New York grossly under-reporting deaths of nursing home residents) but in most instances it seems to be reflective of general bureaucratic incompetence.
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HotardAg07
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11:19a, 6/17/20
AG




ICU capacity still low, but it's ~160 beds higher than 10 days ago. If the trend were to continue, we wouldn't be in a good position in a month or two at that pace.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Keegan99 • 11:53a, 6/17/20
Keegan99 said:
States across the country have demonstrated their inability to transparently and effectively communicate data throughout the course of this pandemic.

In some cases it's political (eg New York grossly under-reporting deaths of nursing home residents) but in most instances it seems to be reflective of general bureaucratic incompetence.


Florida is by far the biggest example of shady reporting to reflect local politics.
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Dazed and Confused
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In reply to Big Al 1992 • 11:56a, 6/17/20
AG
Big Al 1992 said:
Have family and friends that work at Seton. They are getting slammed. Not sure what capacity they are at or have but sounds like they are close to full.


Just saw that there are 12 nurses that are arriving from Michigan on Sunday to help out at Seton. It is not only hospital beds, but staff that gets impacted.
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HowdyTexasAggies
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 11:58a, 6/17/20
AG
Which narrative? The one you don't like? Did you like the NY narrative so it was ok?
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 12:25p, 6/17/20
OlSarge92 said:
Which narrative? The one you don't like? Did you like the NY narrative so it was ok?

I dont like anyone ****ing with data.
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Beat40
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 12:26p, 6/17/20
Duncan Idaho said:
Jesus..25% hit rate? I dont think it was that high when they were strictly limiting who could get tested.


I think some of the reason the hit rate is going up is because seasonal sickness like the flu and seasonal allergies trend down during this time. Probably a lot less people going in to get tested with other sickness than before.

Granted, it's not the full reason for a 25% hit rate, but it's a factor.
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HotardAg07
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12:31p, 6/17/20
AG
This is a case where I wish the federal government had standardized reporting requirements across all states for not just cases, but tests, hospitalizations, confirmed deaths, probable deaths -- broken down by age, race, etc. There has been too much inconsistency in the reporting and too much room for gamesmanship of the data.
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czechy91
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12:34p, 6/17/20
AG
Houston - looks like we have liftoff!
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Premium
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In reply to czechy91 • 12:36p, 6/17/20
AG
czechy91 said:
Houston - looks like we have liftoff!


Checked oil prices before I realized it was a covid response...
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Ozzy Osbourne
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12:51p, 6/17/20
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Keegan99
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 12:52p, 6/17/20
AG
Duncan Idaho said:
Keegan99 said:
States across the country have demonstrated their inability to transparently and effectively communicate data throughout the course of this pandemic.

In some cases it's political (eg New York grossly under-reporting deaths of nursing home residents) but in most instances it seems to be reflective of general bureaucratic incompetence.


Florida is by far the biggest example of shady reporting to reflect local politics.

Not even close.

NY takes the cake with their nursing home fatality totals. They've miscategorized upwards of ten thousand deaths to avoid Cuomo taking heat for the ridiculous order forcing facilities to accept COVID+ patients.
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MAROON
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In reply to czechy91 • 12:56p, 6/17/20
AG
czechy91 said:
Houston - looks like we have liftoff!
yep - to be expected. We've opened up somewhat, and we had 80k-100k people marching shoulder to shoulder for hours just a few weeks ago. That will lead to an increase in positive tests.

Friend who is a doc at Methodist said the number of cases he is seeing have increased significantly and they are skewing younger. All very predictable given the past weeks.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
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TxAG#2011
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In reply to Ozzy Osbourne • 1:01p, 6/17/20
"may be"

It doesn't make sense either. We have been open for a month now and employers are just now asking for people to get tested? Also, hospitlizations are certainly going up.
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Pasquale Liucci
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In reply to TxAG#2011 • 1:24p, 6/17/20
AG
Lots of employers have been exclusively WFH and are just now bringing non essentials back to office. We are in our internal Stage 2 re opening with 2/3 allowed back on site. Based on the amount of stupid CYA we are required to do, I totally believe that some employers would require a negative test before returning.
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culdeus
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In reply to Pasquale Liucci • 1:28p, 6/17/20
AG
Lester Freamon said:
Lots of employers have been exclusively WFH and are just now bringing non essentials back to office. We are in our internal Stage 2 re opening with 2/3 allowed back on site. Based on the amount of stupid CYA we are required to do, I totally believe that some employers would require a negative test before returning.


Every day?
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plain_o_llama
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1:31p, 6/17/20
Not all the state, but it doesn't support the idea that testing rates have greatly increased.
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/covid-19-testing-trends/
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CowtownAg06
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In reply to plain_o_llama • 1:34p, 6/17/20
AG
Your chart does show the positivity rate going up. I was just coming to post this... I don't understand why we're only do 1/2 of the tests of a week ago.

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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to CowtownAg06 • 2:09p, 6/17/20
Can't have any cases if to you dont test /djt
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