• The State publishes data a few days after it's collected by municipalities. Some municipalities have started back-dating case data to the date of a test or onset of symptoms, but this hasn't trickled up to the state level (yet). That will change the shape of the curves and where a given area is in the downhill side of this.
• The State calculates "active cases" using a formula, not by actively tracking each case status. The only set number they have is confirmed fatalities -- the other recoveries are estimates, so cases can resolve faster or slower than modeled. The input data for these is the same as "daily new cases", so it should also be back-dated.

• Fatalities are also published on days they make it to the state, not necessarily the date the death occurred. Generally there's not as big a lag in time as with testing.
• Given those caveats, it's a little interesting that hospitalization generally tracks with daily new cases.

DTP02 said:

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Mordred said:

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Pinche Abogado said:

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San Diego, California

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"We've unfortunately had six pure, solely coronavirus deaths six out of 3.3 million people," San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond said in an interview this week, according to the San Diego Tribune. "I mean, what number are we trying to get to with those odds? I mean, it's incredible. We want to be safe, and we can do it, but unfortunately, it's more about control than getting the economy going again and keeping people safe."

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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/san-diego-county-supervisor-says-six-of-194-confirmed-deaths-are-pure-solely-coronavirus-deaths

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That headline isn't exactly breaking news. It's well established that co-morbidities are what ends up predicting your survivability. We've got a lot of people in this country with co-morbidities though. They're gonna need to be careful.

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The bigger story is that they have 194 total COVID deaths, including those 188 that have comorbidities, out of 3.3 m people.

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Beat40 said:

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At the end of the day, knowing many of the risk areas, at least when it comes to age demographics, I think these charts would make much more sense to be broken out by age group. Really would see how things are progressing. I think these charts are covering so much data that you could easily draw the wrong conclusions

Does anyone know if any place is charting new cases, active cases, hospitalizations and deaths by age group?

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Fitch said:

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Thanks for the effort involved in pulling the Harris Co. data. I noticed the same issue you noted with the right side of the curve shifting, sometimes dramatically, as new data points filter in. For whatever reason I was finding some revisions in daily counts back into March I would have expected that to only happen maybe up to two weeks back.

How are you deriving the positive rate? The state website seems to be including total tests performed including those still pending, which adds something like 100,000 tests to the denominator. The tracking website (not the DSHS) lists those as negatives until the positive results are later revised.

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dragmagpuff said:

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So here the updated plots showing how Harris County's case numbers trends have been changing over time as they backdate cases. The black Texas Curve is what the state has. The Blue is the most up to date. The other 2 curves show what the average looked like each of the last 2 weeks.



You can start to see that our bending the curve down was likely just partial data, which is kind of a bummer. I wish Harris posted testing per day so we could confirm that the shallow decline includes drastic testing increases.

The Texas Medical Center Hospitalization shallow decline trend lines up with that though (also the peak is ~2 weeks post lockdown). I highly recommend looking at the hospitalization data on the TMC website


On the Statewide front, the news is a mixture of good and bad:

• Confirmed daily cases is at/near it's highest level (not great, but testing dependent)
• Daily deaths are at their highest level (Bad, not as testing dependent)
• The peak 7-day daily average for deaths in the state is 38/day (our peak is not horrible)
• Reported daily testing has exploded in the past week, I had to re-scale the plot, and still not show the days over 40k/day (Excellent)
• Daily Percent Positive has elevated slightly from 6.1% to 6.9% due to some days over 10% (not great, but not horrible)

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How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?

The governments disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same.

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Virginia likewise mixed viral and antibody test results until last week, but it reversed course and the governor apologized for the practice after it was covered by the Richmond Times-Dispatch and The Atlantic. Maine similarly separated its data on Wednesday; Vermont authorities claimed they didnt even know they were doing this.

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Fitch said:

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Agree the general trend will be consistent, just noting the true daily positive rate will vary by how many tests the labs cycle through or if the number of tests jumps. I haven't been able to replicate the state published numbers with their published data, but c'est la vie.

As a future FYI - I kind of think the state will be revising testing reports at some point in the future. There were a couple articles at the end of last week that detailed antibody testing being included in the overall testing data and inflating the case negative counts. I actually think the state has done a really fair job of reporting data and should be separating out those testing pools now that they've been alerted to it.

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Texas health officials made a key change Thursday to how they report data about the coronavirus, distinguishing antibody tests from standard viral tests and prompting slight increases in the state's oft-cited daily statistic known as the positivity rate.

The positivity rate is the ratio of the confirmed cases to total tests, presented by the state as a seven-day rolling average. The Texas Department State of Health Services disclosed for the first time Thursday that as of a day earlier, it had counted 49,313 antibody tests as as part of its "total tests" tally.

Now that DSHS is reporting the number of antibody tests, it has recalculated its daily positivity rates starting Tuesday to exclude such tests. That led to a 0.41 percentage-point increase in Tuesday's rate and a 0.55 point increase in Wednesday's rate, according to DSHS calculations.

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