If that patten holds true, ours will flatten in late April early May.
I'm confused, I didn't comment on who we were testing - I only posted numbers. I wasn't making any implied comment, I was truly just interested in posting numbers.jamey said:
But those arent random tests. We're just testing the very sick
You edited your comment and I completely agree. I wasn't at all suggesting only those who have tested positive have Covid, the real number is higher - to what degree, I'd love to know. I hope anitbody tests are accurate and can be run in huge numbers.jamey said:
But those arent random tests. We're testing the very sick at a much higher rate
jamey said:
But those arent random tests. We're testing the very sick at a much higher rate
Complete Idiot said:You edited your comment and I completely agree. I wasn't at all suggesting only those who have tested positive have Covid, the real number is higher - to what degree, I'd love to know. I hope anitbody tests are accurate and can be run in huge numbers.jamey said:
But those arent random tests. We're testing the very sick at a much higher rate
HotardAg07 said:
I fear that the bend in infection rate is partially just due to the bend in the testing rate. Testing hasn't increased significantly in over a week now, so you're not going to be able to get the number of positives you need to continue on an exponential path. Since we hear about huge testing backlogs and wait times of up to 2 weeks to get back test results, that tells me that there are more tests going into the system than what labs can handle.
74Ag1 said:
Texas is Bending
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
Philip J Fry said:
I'm on the west coast. I wait until around this time every night to update. I think done deaths land on the next day for world meter depending on the time.
That said, I won't be surprised if we see a spike in NY tomorrow just because they didn't report in in time.
Our current projected peak for Texas is first week of May and only shows a deficit of 340ish vents which is very manageable.Aust Ag said:
And what does she expect that "peak" to look like? I would assume very controllable.
Good questions and I've looked into that - 2 quick notes: Many people reference University of Washington forecast charts, including the federal government, but they don't depict a second/third/etc wave - but they do mention it could occur and that only 5% of AMericans would have been exposed to Covid by end of this first wave leaving 95% still susceptible. Also, their website had said it would all be updated with new data on APril 4th and then this morning I see all such references are removed and it still was last updated APril 1st.Seven Costanza said:
Have there been any models that attempt to project the secondary spike following a lifting of the stay-at-home orders? Unless a large percentage of the population has been asymptomatically infected and subsequently recovered (which is very plausable from some angles, less plausible from others), then it seems like we would just restart the same curve as soon as restrictions are lifted.
Aust Ag said:
And what does she expect that "peak" to look like? I would assume very controllable.
Quote:
As the pandemic progresses, we are working to incorporate new data about the virus in the US
Yeah. I actually pulled up several states on different tabs, so that when it updated I could compare to the previous projections. I assume they are just running behind on the update.Nosmo said:
Anyone notice IHME site was saying to "check back Saturday April 4th for updates", and there was not an update yesterday (April 4th)? And the note it gone.
Just a generic:Quote:
As the pandemic progresses, we are working to incorporate new data about the virus in the US
See my post a couple above yours - but I was calling it Univ of Washington instead of IHME. I wonder why they didn't update as they planned.Nosmo said:
Anyone notice IHME site was saying to "check back Saturday April 4th for updates", and there was not an update yesterday (April 4th)? And the note it gone.
Just a generic:Quote:
As the pandemic progresses, we are working to incorporate new data about the virus in the US
Philip J Fry said:
And with that, NY just updated today's death tally to +594 . Expect to see that number rise today further and push our trend north again :-/
KidDoc said:Our current projected peak for Texas is first week of May and only shows a deficit of 340ish vents which is very manageable.Aust Ag said:
And what does she expect that "peak" to look like? I would assume very controllable.
aggierogue said:KidDoc said:Our current projected peak for Texas is first week of May and only shows a deficit of 340ish vents which is very manageable.Aust Ag said:
And what does she expect that "peak" to look like? I would assume very controllable.
So I guess stating the obvious if that holds true...students won't go back to school for the rest of the 2019-2020 year.
until the trajectory for FL is known , weekly death count impossible to predict.Exsurge Domine said:
Deaths are going to be EXTREMELY ugly this week. But I'm hopeful this will be the hump, and we'll be on the good side of the bell curve this time next week
Geez, aren't they on like week 4 of lockdown?Philip J Fry said:
Well, NY still has over 4K in the ICU right now. Until that number starts flattening, I'd say it isn't they tough to come up with a range.