coolbmet said:
Nice data for Texas from TAMU CC. Multiple tabs/charts where you can break things down to county-by-county basis, etc:
https://tamucc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/7b82e7fc0e2142cf9a07aa9f7ce5b87f
ham98 said:coolbmet said:
Nice data for Texas from TAMU CC. Multiple tabs/charts where you can break things down to county-by-county basis, etc:
https://tamucc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/7b82e7fc0e2142cf9a07aa9f7ce5b87f
Lester Freamon said:
How is the USA doubling line accurate? We are not doubling every 2-3 days.
buda91 said:
Somethings glitchy there's no cases listed for Harris county
PJYoung said:buda91 said:
Somethings glitchy there's no cases listed for Harris county
For some weird reason Harris County and the City of Houston are keeping separate numbers. They were at 563 combined yesterday
buda91 said:PJYoung said:buda91 said:
Somethings glitchy there's no cases listed for Harris county
For some weird reason Harris County and the City of Houston are keeping separate numbers. They were at 563 combined yesterday
Can you tell if the Texas total includes either houston or Harris county?
Quote:
On Wednesday April 1, Harris County confirmed 303 coronavirus cases, with two deaths and 61 recoveries.
The City of Houston now has at least four deaths. The city has 377 confirmed cases.
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
Here is a graph i have been keeping, to track the changing CFR for each country above 5k cases. i'll update this post as i update my graphs. Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Data updated 0 GMT 3/27/2020
my interesting observations:
3/19/2020:3/23/2020:
- China and S. Korea are the only two that have exited exponential growth so should be settling in on their final numbers. looks like 4% for china and 1%-1.5% for S. Korea (who still has 76% of its cases as active)
- The US is the only country in exponential growth with a declining CFR (since it was asked, CFR is Case Fatality rate, or simply the number of deaths divided by the number of cases). This could possibly be in part due to the fact that our early data skewed high due to the first tracked outbreak being in a nursing home. It looks like our final number and S. Korea's might meet.
- Germany's number is a confusing anomaly. They are about 1 day ahead of us on the daily total case curve. Have almost no deaths. One possible explanation is that maybe their outbreak started in younger communities. I'm very interested to watch their number as they only really started having deaths a few days ago (3/15/2020)
3/24/2020:
- Two more countries have joined the 5k+ but i haven't added them yet (UK and Switzerland). I'll add them once they pass S. Korea.
- I added a CFR plot based on days past the 100th case to get a better look at how the countries compare to each other, not just where they are today. From that it looks like about 3 basic groupings with the upper tier (Italy, Iran, and Spain) looking like things are going to be really rough for them over the coming month. i think i read that for those cases ending in death, the average time to death after exposure was 17.5 days
- With S. Korea down to only 66% active cases, I'm feeling pretty good about my original prediction
- USA has zero separation between the active and total cases line but the CFR curve seems to be bottoming out. This would lead me to believe that we should expect our CFR to start climbing again sometime over the next week. Based on our volume of cases and looking at the shape of S. Korea's curve, i'm going to predict we settle in the 2%-2.25% range but that is a very loose guess at this point with a lot of variables still shaking out
- Finally I added a new plot showing total cases vs days since the 100th case on a semi-log plot. I did this because adding new data this morning it seemed like a lot of countries had begun to see a drop in new cases. This plot confirms that. We will see if it holds true this week or was just a data lag due to the weekend, but with the exception of one, every country on my list has fallen off exponential growth. (for those unfamiliar, on a semi-log plot, exponential growth is a straight line)
- Which brings me to my final observation of the morning. The USA. Based on the latest data update, we are still solidly exponential at a rate of 10x increase every 8 days. This is with widespread testing only just now rolling out, so i wouldn't expect to start see effects from that for another day or two. At this rate we will have surpassed China (their reported numbers at least) by my Thursday update, and broken 100k by Friday. I realize there are a lot of factors here, but this trend cause me to really hope our efforts as a country towards the end of this last week prove to be enough to start bending our curve down soon.
3/25/2020:
- Switzerland passed S. Korea so got added to my list
- Italy is seeing some real separation between their total and active cases curves so I added a detailed look for them. Hopefully this means their CFR will stop going up shortly and maybe even come back down a bit over the next few weeks
- USA is starting to show a bit of separation between total and active curves, and consequently, with yesterday's data saw an increase in CFR for the first time 3/3/20
3/27/2020:
- Unfortunately it looks like S. Korea's CFR rise has been accelerating a bit over the last few days. Not a good trend
- Looks like USA's CFR has indeed started to bend back upwards.
- UK passed S. Korea so they got added to the list
- Had to adjust the CFR scale for Italy, really hope they bend that down very soon...
- Also corrected two "mistakes" on the normalized time graph. I was off one day on where i started S.Korea (started them at 200 cases instead of 100). China was starting at 500 cases due to when data tracking began, so i estimated where there 100th case day should have been and shifted them forward to start on day 4 which lines them up with the fastest growing other country to 500 cases. This may have some inaccuracies but should be the fairest comparison (all might be garbage anyways depending on your view of the data out of china.)
- Added a stand alone USA graph showing the exponential growth curve for the whole time as well as what it is over the last 7 days to show how our growth is or isn't changing.
updatedBlackGoldAg2011 said:
Here is a graph i have been keeping, to track the changing CFR for each country above 5k cases. i'll update this post as i update my graphs. Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Data updated 0 GMT 4/1/2020
my interesting observations:
3/19/2020:3/23/2020:
- China and S. Korea are the only two that have exited exponential growth so should be settling in on their final numbers. looks like 4% for china and 1%-1.5% for S. Korea (who still has 76% of its cases as active)
- The US is the only country in exponential growth with a declining CFR (since it was asked, CFR is Case Fatality rate, or simply the number of deaths divided by the number of cases). This could possibly be in part due to the fact that our early data skewed high due to the first tracked outbreak being in a nursing home. It looks like our final number and S. Korea's might meet.
- Germany's number is a confusing anomaly. They are about 1 day ahead of us on the daily total case curve. Have almost no deaths. One possible explanation is that maybe their outbreak started in younger communities. I'm very interested to watch their number as they only really started having deaths a few days ago (3/15/2020)
3/24/2020:
- Two more countries have joined the 5k+ but i haven't added them yet (UK and Switzerland). I'll add them once they pass S. Korea.
- I added a CFR plot based on days past the 100th case to get a better look at how the countries compare to each other, not just where they are today. From that it looks like about 3 basic groupings with the upper tier (Italy, Iran, and Spain) looking like things are going to be really rough for them over the coming month. i think i read that for those cases ending in death, the average time to death after exposure was 17.5 days
- With S. Korea down to only 66% active cases, I'm feeling pretty good about my original prediction
- USA has zero separation between the active and total cases line but the CFR curve seems to be bottoming out. This would lead me to believe that we should expect our CFR to start climbing again sometime over the next week. Based on our volume of cases and looking at the shape of S. Korea's curve, i'm going to predict we settle in the 2%-2.25% range but that is a very loose guess at this point with a lot of variables still shaking out
- Finally I added a new plot showing total cases vs days since the 100th case on a semi-log plot. I did this because adding new data this morning it seemed like a lot of countries had begun to see a drop in new cases. This plot confirms that. We will see if it holds true this week or was just a data lag due to the weekend, but with the exception of one, every country on my list has fallen off exponential growth. (for those unfamiliar, on a semi-log plot, exponential growth is a straight line)
- Which brings me to my final observation of the morning. The USA. Based on the latest data update, we are still solidly exponential at a rate of 10x increase every 8 days. This is with widespread testing only just now rolling out, so i wouldn't expect to start see effects from that for another day or two. At this rate we will have surpassed China (their reported numbers at least) by my Thursday update, and broken 100k by Friday. I realize there are a lot of factors here, but this trend cause me to really hope our efforts as a country towards the end of this last week prove to be enough to start bending our curve down soon.
3/25/2020:
- Switzerland passed S. Korea so got added to my list
- Italy is seeing some real separation between their total and active cases curves so I added a detailed look for them. Hopefully this means their CFR will stop going up shortly and maybe even come back down a bit over the next few weeks
- USA is starting to show a bit of separation between total and active curves, and consequently, with yesterday's data saw an increase in CFR for the first time 3/3/20
3/27/2020:
- Unfortunately it looks like S. Korea's CFR rise has been accelerating a bit over the last few days. Not a good trend
- Looks like USA's CFR has indeed started to bend back upwards.
4/1/2020
- UK passed S. Korea so they got added to the list
- Had to adjust the CFR scale for Italy, really hope they bend that down very soon...
- Also corrected two "mistakes" on the normalized time graph. I was off one day on where i started S.Korea (started them at 200 cases instead of 100). China was starting at 500 cases due to when data tracking began, so i estimated where there 100th case day should have been and shifted them forward to start on day 4 which lines them up with the fastest growing other country to 500 cases. This may have some inaccuracies but should be the fairest comparison (all might be garbage anyways depending on your view of the data out of china.)
- Added a stand alone USA graph showing the exponential growth curve for the whole time as well as what it is over the last 7 days to show how our growth is or isn't changing.
- US new case growth has definitively fallen off of an exponential trend and for the last 10 days fits a 2nd order polynomial nearly perfectly. whether this is a true slow in case growth or just a slow in the growth of new confirmed cases is yet to be seen.
- had to adjust the CFR scale for Italy again
Yeah, given what every other country that you could semi trust reported numbers, pretty sure those wouldn't be accurate.Marcus Aurelius said:
Russia. Does anyone believe their reporting ? if true only covid is in Moscow?
JB!98 said:
I have a question about the recovered and how they are counted. I understand that number may be small right now, but is that deducted from the total cases? Put another way, is the total case number the active number? Seeing the recovered number may prove a trend also.
HotardAg07 said:
I'm losing my minid on the testing data. I'll save my time making a nice graph but this is the last 8 days of daily test results:
100989
104117
113503
95647
109071
107295
97806
It seems like we have hit a plateau and that is super dissappointing. Before this, we were increasing our daily testing capacity 5,000-10,000 tests per day. What is going on?
BlackGoldAg2011 said:updatedBlackGoldAg2011 said:
4/1/2020
- US new case growth has definitively fallen off of an exponential trend and for the last 10 days fits a 2nd order polynomial nearly perfectly. whether this is a true slow in case growth or just a slow in the growth of new confirmed cases is yet to be seen.
- had to adjust the CFR scale for Italy again
Compounded by our leaders refusing to acknowledge it early on.Stupe said:
All of this happening because China didn't want to admit that they had an issue.
ETFan said:BlackGoldAg2011 said:updatedBlackGoldAg2011 said:
4/1/2020
- US new case growth has definitively fallen off of an exponential trend and for the last 10 days fits a 2nd order polynomial nearly perfectly. whether this is a true slow in case growth or just a slow in the growth of new confirmed cases is yet to be seen.
- had to adjust the CFR scale for Italy again
Am I thinking about this incorrectly or is this just simply because we've plateaued at only being able to test ~100k a day for the last 7+ days?
