Why, after what seems like 2 weeks of quarantine, is Italy's infection growing so much?
Sq 17 said:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099389/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/
now that italy has over 3000 deaths this chart shows why they thought shutting the Country down was necessary. if anybody can insert the chart instead of the link that would be much appreciated
Aust Ag said:
Why, after what seems like 2 weeks of quarantine, is Italy's infection growing so much?
Exsurge Domine said:Aust Ag said:
Why, after what seems like 2 weeks of quarantine, is Italy's infection growing so much?
It has been suggested that it was from all the people fleeing the Lombardy quarantine who took it elsewhere
Quote:
Former Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini shared a video from Garibaldi station in Milan and said: 'Masses of people in the late Saturday evening storm the last trains leaving Lombardy after the draft coronavirus decree filtered by the Government.'
Quote:
The whole of Lombardy, including the financial capital of Milan, and 14 provinces across the worst-affected northern regions, have been shut down until 3 April as Italy grapples to contain the spread of a virus as deaths rose from 233 to 366, a rise of more than 50% in 24 hours, with the total number of cases so far at 7,375.
Thousands crowded train stations or jumped into their cars after a draft decree banning people from leaving or entering the region was revealed by Corriere della Sera late on Saturday afternoon.
Quote:
In Italy's south dozens of police officers and medics wearing masks and hazmat suits waited in Salerno, Campania, for passengers who had boarded overnight trains from Lombardy as fears mount over the virus's potential spread.
"What happened with the news leak has caused many people to try to escape, causing the opposite effect of what the decree is trying to achieve," warned Roberto Burioni, a professor of microbiology and virology at Vita-Salute San Raffaele University in Milan. "Unfortunately some of those who fled will be infected with the disease."
updated, and added some plots showing a more detailed look at China, S. Korea, and USA to see where we fall on the disease progression timeline.BlackGoldAg2011 said:
Here is a graph i have been keeping, to track the changing CFR for each country above 5k cases. i'll update this post as i update my graphs. Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Data updated 0 GMT 3/20/2020
my interesting observations:
3/19/2020:
- China and S. Korea are the only two that have exited exponential growth so should be settling in on their final numbers. looks like 4% for china and 1%-1.5% for S. Korea (who still has 76% of its cases as active)
- The US is the only country in exponential growth with a declining CFR. This could possibly be in part due to the fact that our early data skewed high due to the first tracked outbreak being in a nursing home. It looks like our final number and S. Korea's might meet.
- Germany's number is a confusing anomaly. They are about 1 day ahead of us on the daily total case curve. Have almost no deaths. On possible explanation is that maybe their outbreak started in younger communities. I'm very interested to watch their number as they only really started having deaths a few days ago (3/15/2020)
What would be interesting to add is if we had some real estimate of available tests each day.PJYoung said:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
AgLiving06 said:What would be interesting to add is if we had some real estimate of available tests each day.PJYoung said:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The problem with these charts is that, while they are correct, they are also misleading since we know that there was a lack of testing in the early days.
I would bet that if you could overlay the available tests, that this curve would follow a similar exponential curve.
The rate of growth is actually slowing down in Italy. Unfortunately, because they have so many cases to start with, the daily number of new infections look huge. I have been keeping track of there numbers, looking at a five day running average for estimated new cases. Over the past couple of weeks, they have gone from a 21% daily growth rate down to 12.5%. I am just using a simple spreadsheet that excludes a whole host of factors, but it has been reasonably accurate. With 41,000 cases, Italy's number of new cases today will likely be around 5,000.Aust Ag said:
Why, after what seems like 2 weeks of quarantine, is Italy's infection growing so much?
Big Al 1992 said:
Remember when Diamond Princess was in 3rd place like 2 weeks ago? And man if that's accurate, Singapore really nipped this in the bud- they were thought to have spectacular Heath care system and we should look to them.
And who kept it from the world for approximately a month.Jet Black said:
Nothing wrong with blaming the country that unleashed the China virus on the world.
Ag Defense Rules said:
Of course we are blaming China.
Their wet meat markets have caused most of the world pandemics over at least the last 30 years.
Irwin M. Fletcher said:
I really like your charts, please continue to update them as data comes in.