Why, after what seems like 2 weeks of quarantine, is Italy's infection growing so much?
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Sq 17 said:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099389/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/
now that italy has over 3000 deaths this chart shows why they thought shutting the Country down was necessary. if anybody can insert the chart instead of the link that would be much appreciated
Aust Ag said:
Why, after what seems like 2 weeks of quarantine, is Italy's infection growing so much?
It has been suggested that it was from all the people fleeing the Lombardy quarantine who took it elsewhere
Exsurge Domine said:Aust Ag said:
Why, after what seems like 2 weeks of quarantine, is Italy's infection growing so much?
It has been suggested that it was from all the people fleeing the Lombardy quarantine who took it elsewhere
That explanation would make perfect sense. Remember the video of people running to catch the last train out?
Quote:
Former Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini shared a video from Garibaldi station in Milan and said: 'Masses of people in the late Saturday evening storm the last trains leaving Lombardy after the draft coronavirus decree filtered by the Government.'
Quote:
The whole of Lombardy, including the financial capital of Milan, and 14 provinces across the worst-affected northern regions, have been shut down until 3 April as Italy grapples to contain the spread of a virus as deaths rose from 233 to 366, a rise of more than 50% in 24 hours, with the total number of cases so far at 7,375.
Thousands crowded train stations or jumped into their cars after a draft decree banning people from leaving or entering the region was revealed by Corriere della Sera late on Saturday afternoon.
Quote:
In Italy's south dozens of police officers and medics wearing masks and hazmat suits waited in Salerno, Campania, for passengers who had boarded overnight trains from Lombardy as fears mount over the virus's potential spread.
"What happened with the news leak has caused many people to try to escape, causing the opposite effect of what the decree is trying to achieve," warned Roberto Burioni, a professor of microbiology and virology at Vita-Salute San Raffaele University in Milan. "Unfortunately some of those who fled will be infected with the disease."
almost 4,500 new positives in the US today alone
Stay safe folks
Stay at home if possible
Stay safe folks
Stay at home if possible
i think once a region gets saturated not much that can be done. The quarantine is an attempt to keep the next region from becoming as saturated
updated
updated, and added some plots showing a more detailed look at China, S. Korea, and USA to see where we fall on the disease progression timeline.BlackGoldAg2011 said:
Here is a graph i have been keeping, to track the changing CFR for each country above 5k cases. i'll update this post as i update my graphs. Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Data updated 0 GMT 3/20/2020
my interesting observations:
3/19/2020:
- China and S. Korea are the only two that have exited exponential growth so should be settling in on their final numbers. looks like 4% for china and 1%-1.5% for S. Korea (who still has 76% of its cases as active)
- The US is the only country in exponential growth with a declining CFR. This could possibly be in part due to the fact that our early data skewed high due to the first tracked outbreak being in a nursing home. It looks like our final number and S. Korea's might meet.
- Germany's number is a confusing anomaly. They are about 1 day ahead of us on the daily total case curve. Have almost no deaths. On possible explanation is that maybe their outbreak started in younger communities. I'm very interested to watch their number as they only really started having deaths a few days ago (3/15/2020)
What would be interesting to add is if we had some real estimate of available tests each day.PJYoung said:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The problem with these charts is that, while they are correct, they are also misleading since we know that there was a lack of testing in the early days.
I would bet that if you could overlay the available tests, that this curve would follow a similar exponential curve.
The total number of deaths is growing exponentially as well...
I really like your charts, please continue to update them as data comes in.
AgLiving06 said:What would be interesting to add is if we had some real estimate of available tests each day.PJYoung said:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The problem with these charts is that, while they are correct, they are also misleading since we know that there was a lack of testing in the early days.
I would bet that if you could overlay the available tests, that this curve would follow a similar exponential curve.
Totally agree.
The rate of growth is actually slowing down in Italy. Unfortunately, because they have so many cases to start with, the daily number of new infections look huge. I have been keeping track of there numbers, looking at a five day running average for estimated new cases. Over the past couple of weeks, they have gone from a 21% daily growth rate down to 12.5%. I am just using a simple spreadsheet that excludes a whole host of factors, but it has been reasonably accurate. With 41,000 cases, Italy's number of new cases today will likely be around 5,000.Aust Ag said:
Why, after what seems like 2 weeks of quarantine, is Italy's infection growing so much?
Contrast this with the US where the five-day running average is almost 28%. This is to be expected because we are finally testing, but it is still disconcerting. We will pass Germany in total cases today or tomorrow, Iran & Spain by early next week, and China by the end of next week, even with everything that is being done.
Looking at John Hopkin right now:
US Stats
Confirmed: 18,563
Deaths: 227
Total cases: ???? (I'm adding this to make it clear this is what is used for the flu that we do not have)
Dear Rate: 1.2% - this is lower than I saw earlier today.
US Stats
Confirmed: 18,563
Deaths: 227
Total cases: ???? (I'm adding this to make it clear this is what is used for the flu that we do not have)
Dear Rate: 1.2% - this is lower than I saw earlier today.
I have been watching the mild to severe ratio increase while the recovered to dead ratio decreases. Seems backwards to me. The explanation I come up with is:
Iraq not providing severe case data
Italians dying before being placed in severe category
What am I missing?
Death rate is probably under 1%. Definitely more than 18563 cases out there.
Updated - Worldometer crossed 30k daily cases for the first time.
Big Al 1992 said:
Remember when Diamond Princess was in 3rd place like 2 weeks ago? And man if that's accurate, Singapore really nipped this in the bud- they were thought to have spectacular Heath care system and we should look to them.
We are too busy blaming China.
Nothing wrong with blaming the country that unleashed the China virus on the world.
I would bet the time to be "recovered" is longer than the average person that dies.
So if average recover time was 10 days and the average time to death was 5 days, it's going to have a lagging effect, especially as testing and "positives" are ramping up like we see them.
So if we look at PjYoung's count of 30k people today testing positive, that means in 10-15 days, we are also going to see a significant increase in the "recovery" stats.
With the increases testing now, you'll start to see the stats really diverge back to what would be expected.
So if average recover time was 10 days and the average time to death was 5 days, it's going to have a lagging effect, especially as testing and "positives" are ramping up like we see them.
So if we look at PjYoung's count of 30k people today testing positive, that means in 10-15 days, we are also going to see a significant increase in the "recovery" stats.
With the increases testing now, you'll start to see the stats really diverge back to what would be expected.
And who kept it from the world for approximately a month.Jet Black said:
Nothing wrong with blaming the country that unleashed the China virus on the world.
updated
Of course we are blaming China.
Their wet meat markets have caused most of the world pandemics over at least the last 30 years.
Their wet meat markets have caused most of the world pandemics over at least the last 30 years.
Their wet markets are basically the equivalent of a dirty bomb factory.
Are there any numbers on how many of the positives in Louisiana attended Mardi Gras?
Not the type of chart that has been posted here yet but in the press conference yesterday the president alluded to a chart or table that shows how long the virus is believed to be able to survive on various surfaces. Anybody here aware of this?
I was just talking with a friend of mine in Japan. She said that, other than closing schools, life has been business as usual. That's unexpected, given how packed the trains get at rush hour.
Abe also ordered Japanese companies to make non essential workers work from home. In my company those working in Tokyo had to work from home but the smaller cities show up every day. Still practice social distancing and they already have a culture of everybody wearing masks.
Ag Defense Rules said:
Of course we are blaming China.
Their wet meat markets have caused most of the world pandemics over at least the last 30 years.
I watched a lady eat a baby featherless bird
Irwin M. Fletcher said:
I really like your charts, please continue to update them as data comes in.
I do too but would someone please explain what CFR stands for?