Is the camp in Houston?
***Official USMNT-WCQ Octagonal Thread***
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Last: 2 yr ago by cruzdoggie
Well we are down to the final round of matches, and it is very tight. Every point matters. The US is actually a point or 2 ahead of my initial projection and really a home win over Panama should be enough.
Current Table
Team Pts +/-
1. Canada 25 +14
2. USA 21 +9
3. Mexico 21 +6
4. Panama 17 +1
5. Costa Rica 16 +1
6. El Salvador 9 -7
7. Jamaica* 7 -7
8. Honduras* 3 -17
*Honduras and Jamaica have been officially eliminated
Remaining Matches:
Canada: @ Costa Rica; Jamaica; @ Panama.
Previous matches: 1-0 over CR; 0-0 @ Jamaica; 4-1 over Panama
Expected Results: Draw, win, loss= 4 points
USA: @Mexico; v. Panama; @ Costa Rica
Previous Results: 2-0 over Mex; 0-1 loss @ Panama; 2-1 over CR
Expected Results: draw, win, loss= 4 points
Mexico: USA; @Honduras; v. El Salvador
Previous Results: 0-2 loss @ USA; 3-0 win Hon; 2-0 win @ El Salv
Expected Results: draw; win; win = 7 points
Panama: v. Honduras; @ USA; v. Canada
Previous Results:3-2 Win @ Hond; 1-0 win over US; 4-1 loss @ Panama
Expected Results: Win; Loss; Win= 6 points
Costa Rica: v. Canada; @ El Salvador; v. USA
Previous Results: 1-0 loss @ Canada; 2-1 win over El Salv.; 2-1 loss @ USA
Expected Results: Draw; win; win= 7 points
Expected Final Standings:
1. Canada 29 points
2. Mexico 28 points
3. USA 25 points
4. Panama 23 points
5. Costa Rica 23 points
US Panama game will be biggest game in a long, long time for US. With a win over Panama the worst US can do is 4th place, and if Canada beats or ties Costa Rica then the Panama win would clinch a top 3 spot. So US needs to be big Canada fans against Costa Rica to ensure US trip to Costa Rica is a meaningless game.
Current Table
Team Pts +/-
1. Canada 25 +14
2. USA 21 +9
3. Mexico 21 +6
4. Panama 17 +1
5. Costa Rica 16 +1
6. El Salvador 9 -7
7. Jamaica* 7 -7
8. Honduras* 3 -17
*Honduras and Jamaica have been officially eliminated
Remaining Matches:
Canada: @ Costa Rica; Jamaica; @ Panama.
Previous matches: 1-0 over CR; 0-0 @ Jamaica; 4-1 over Panama
Expected Results: Draw, win, loss= 4 points
USA: @Mexico; v. Panama; @ Costa Rica
Previous Results: 2-0 over Mex; 0-1 loss @ Panama; 2-1 over CR
Expected Results: draw, win, loss= 4 points
Mexico: USA; @Honduras; v. El Salvador
Previous Results: 0-2 loss @ USA; 3-0 win Hon; 2-0 win @ El Salv
Expected Results: draw; win; win = 7 points
Panama: v. Honduras; @ USA; v. Canada
Previous Results:3-2 Win @ Hond; 1-0 win over US; 4-1 loss @ Panama
Expected Results: Win; Loss; Win= 6 points
Costa Rica: v. Canada; @ El Salvador; v. USA
Previous Results: 1-0 loss @ Canada; 2-1 win over El Salv.; 2-1 loss @ USA
Expected Results: Draw; win; win= 7 points
Expected Final Standings:
1. Canada 29 points
2. Mexico 28 points
3. USA 25 points
4. Panama 23 points
5. Costa Rica 23 points
US Panama game will be biggest game in a long, long time for US. With a win over Panama the worst US can do is 4th place, and if Canada beats or ties Costa Rica then the Panama win would clinch a top 3 spot. So US needs to be big Canada fans against Costa Rica to ensure US trip to Costa Rica is a meaningless game.
ChipFTAC01 said:
Is the camp in Houston?
Yes, to minimize the travel. The reality is camp is just a few days before the first match only
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
Man with the injuries mounting, I'm getting 2017 vibes
I choose to think that we'll flip the narrative and take seven points this window.
I think we take 5 points this window.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
Really not a bad philosophy.
Starting XI’s I would go with for Mexico and Panama matches. Panama is the most important game and the main focus. You need your best team & 3 points.
— Stu Holden (@stuholden) March 21, 2022
Adams, Pefok, Steffen, Yedlin all on yellows. pic.twitter.com/qsGCBA1BLf
F-off with that!!!wangus12 said:
Man with the injuries mounting, I'm getting 2017 vibes
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Scenario to clinch on Thursday night:
USA beats Mexico
Canada draws or beats Costa Rica
Honduras beats Panama
At that point we would have 24 points and 4th place would have 17 with only 6 points available
Unless things break our way perfectly on Thursday with Honduras beating Panama and us beating Mexico, the match on Sunday will be absolutely critical.
There are exactly zero scenarios in which Panama could pass us if we beat them on Sunday no matter what happens in the other matches. And if we win just this one game, there is only 1 scenario where we don't finish in the top 3. And that's with Costa Rica winning all 3 of their Matches and us not winning besides vs Panama.
If we somehow lose the first two matches, we would be fighting for 4th position against Costa Rica next Wednesday
USA beats Mexico
Canada draws or beats Costa Rica
Honduras beats Panama
At that point we would have 24 points and 4th place would have 17 with only 6 points available
Unless things break our way perfectly on Thursday with Honduras beating Panama and us beating Mexico, the match on Sunday will be absolutely critical.
There are exactly zero scenarios in which Panama could pass us if we beat them on Sunday no matter what happens in the other matches. And if we win just this one game, there is only 1 scenario where we don't finish in the top 3. And that's with Costa Rica winning all 3 of their Matches and us not winning besides vs Panama.
If we somehow lose the first two matches, we would be fighting for 4th position against Costa Rica next Wednesday
It will really depend on how meaningful that game is down in Costa Rica. Hopefully we go into it not needing any points, and Costa Rica goes in just trying to get 4th place. In that scenario I could see us playing a B team and getting beat down there.akm91 said:
I think we take 5 points this window.
Even tough it's the greatness of a US/El Tri match in Azteca, it's all about scoreboard watching on Thursday. We absolutely need Canada to beat Costa Rica and pray for a Honduras/Panama draw or Honduras win
A Canada draw with Costa Rica would be fine. If we beat Panama their result v. Honduras irs irrelevant, If we tie or lose to Panama then a loss to Honduras would be great.Legal Custodian said:
Even tough it's the greatness of a US/El Tri match in Azteca, it's all about scoreboard watching on Thursday. We absolutely need Canada to beat Costa Rica and pray for a Honduras/Panama draw or Honduras win
Current Table:
Canada - 25 pts
USA - 21 pts
Mexico - 21pts
Panama - 17pts
Costa Rica - 16pts
Worst case scenario after Thursday:
Canada - 25pts (Loss to Costa Rica)
Mexico - 24pts (Win over USA)
USA - 21pts
Panama - 20pts (Win over Honduras)
Costa Rica - 19pts (Win over Canada)
If that happens then this is the worst case scenario after Sunday:
Canada - 28pts (win over Jamaica)
Mexico - 27pts (win over Honduras)
Panama - 23pts (win over USA)
Costa Rica - 22pts (win over El Salvador)
USA - 21pts (loss to Panama)
That is the absolute worst case scenario to happen for the US. If so, this is what we would need to happen to get in:
4th Spot: Win against Costa Rica next Wednesday and Panama gets a win vs Canada
3rd Spot: Win against Costa Rica next Wednesday and Panama gets a draw or loss vs Canada
So even with a worst case scenario over the first two matches, we would not be eliminated and still have a decent shot of getting in.
Canada - 25 pts
USA - 21 pts
Mexico - 21pts
Panama - 17pts
Costa Rica - 16pts
Worst case scenario after Thursday:
Canada - 25pts (Loss to Costa Rica)
Mexico - 24pts (Win over USA)
USA - 21pts
Panama - 20pts (Win over Honduras)
Costa Rica - 19pts (Win over Canada)
If that happens then this is the worst case scenario after Sunday:
Canada - 28pts (win over Jamaica)
Mexico - 27pts (win over Honduras)
Panama - 23pts (win over USA)
Costa Rica - 22pts (win over El Salvador)
USA - 21pts (loss to Panama)
That is the absolute worst case scenario to happen for the US. If so, this is what we would need to happen to get in:
4th Spot: Win against Costa Rica next Wednesday and Panama gets a win vs Canada
3rd Spot: Win against Costa Rica next Wednesday and Panama gets a draw or loss vs Canada
So even with a worst case scenario over the first two matches, we would not be eliminated and still have a decent shot of getting in.
True but this Costa Rica team isn't that great. Our B team should be able to earn a point down there.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
I guess the plan would be to defend and counter versus Mexico? Ferreira would be asked to track back a lot. If we get stretched between lines I could see Acosta picking up two yellows stopping counters to our counterattacks. That may happen anyways!Aye Davanita said:
Really not a bad philosophy.Starting XI’s I would go with for Mexico and Panama matches. Panama is the most important game and the main focus. You need your best team & 3 points.
— Stu Holden (@stuholden) March 21, 2022
Adams, Pefok, Steffen, Yedlin all on yellows. pic.twitter.com/qsGCBA1BLf
If we start Bello on the left against mexico we are gonna get torched
Weah or Reyna should absolutely start over Arriola.
And while I like the progressiveness of the midfield against Panama, I get the feeling it would be overrun. We're really going to miss Weston's 2 way ability. We need more than one midfielder capable of stepping in and making a hard challenge.
Weah or Reyna should absolutely start over Arriola.
And while I like the progressiveness of the midfield against Panama, I get the feeling it would be overrun. We're really going to miss Weston's 2 way ability. We need more than one midfielder capable of stepping in and making a hard challenge.
Bello started in the GC finals against Mexico and held up ok for the minutes he played.Kampfers said:
If we start Bello on the left against mexico we are gonna get torched
Weah or Reyna should absolutely start over Arriola.
And while I like the progressiveness of the midfield against Panama, I get the feeling it would be overrun. We're really going to miss Weston's 2 way ability. We need more than one midfielder capable of stepping in and making a hard challenge.
Reyna's not going to start vs Mexico as he won't last full 90 in altitude which means you're burning 2 players for 1 position. I'd start Morris and Aariola and bring Reyna, Weah and Pulisic on as subs if there's a chance to get a result in the latter stages of the match.
I don't think Panama overruns Musah, Adams and De La Torre in Orlando.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
For my starting XI I am looking at the first two games together. Mexico will come into our game, like US, feeling good about themselves if they get a draw. A loss would be terrible for El Tri, so I expect a somewhat defensive team from them as well. Panama has our game sandwiched around 2 home games. They have to be thinking "just get a draw" at US and win the other two.
I think the US needs 4 points to qualify, so my 2 squads reflect that we need to get a point from Mex and 3 from Panama. I have no interest in a scenario where we need points in Costa Rica.
So my XI is with the thought of: "best Xi for a defensive shell game" for Mex and "best XI for an opponent defensive shell" game against Panama.
Mexico Game:
Pulisic----Fereierra----Arriola
Acosta---Adams---De La Torre
Jedi---Robinson--Zimmerman--Cannon
---------Horvath-------
If Adams picks up a second yellow so be it, this is the game where we need him. A defensive 6 isn't going to be a huge need against Panama. Arriola's speed can be good on counter and his teaming up with Fereira is a bonus.
Panama game:
Pulisic----Pefok---Weah
Musah---Adams---De La Torre
Jedi---Robinson--Zimmerman--Yedlin
----Horvath----
So Acosta in for Adams this game if Adams picks up a yellow in Mexico or cannot physically handle 2 games in a row.
Horvath starts both, he has been playing more and I am more confident in him.
Saving Reyna as a super sub for both games, but if he can go 90 then put him in for De la Torre in Panama game.
I think the US needs 4 points to qualify, so my 2 squads reflect that we need to get a point from Mex and 3 from Panama. I have no interest in a scenario where we need points in Costa Rica.
So my XI is with the thought of: "best Xi for a defensive shell game" for Mex and "best XI for an opponent defensive shell" game against Panama.
Mexico Game:
Pulisic----Fereierra----Arriola
Acosta---Adams---De La Torre
Jedi---Robinson--Zimmerman--Cannon
---------Horvath-------
If Adams picks up a second yellow so be it, this is the game where we need him. A defensive 6 isn't going to be a huge need against Panama. Arriola's speed can be good on counter and his teaming up with Fereira is a bonus.
Panama game:
Pulisic----Pefok---Weah
Musah---Adams---De La Torre
Jedi---Robinson--Zimmerman--Yedlin
----Horvath----
So Acosta in for Adams this game if Adams picks up a yellow in Mexico or cannot physically handle 2 games in a row.
Horvath starts both, he has been playing more and I am more confident in him.
Saving Reyna as a super sub for both games, but if he can go 90 then put him in for De la Torre in Panama game.
All time, the Americans are 18-16-6 against Costa Rica, with a 15-6-4 record on home soil. They haven't lost to Costa Rica since Sept. 1, 2017 in Harrison, New Jersey, winning the last three meetings under Berhalter.
In qualifying, the USMNT is 3-1-1 in the past five qualifying cycles at home against Costa Rica, but is 0-5 on the road. The USMNT has never won at Costa Rica.
In qualifying, the USMNT is 3-1-1 in the past five qualifying cycles at home against Costa Rica, but is 0-5 on the road. The USMNT has never won at Costa Rica.
I could not disagree more with your approach to this window. Winning at home against Panama is THE most important factor.Aston94 said:
For my starting XI I am looking at the first two games together. Mexico will come into our game, like US, feeling good about themselves if they get a draw. A loss would be terrible for El Tri, so I expect a somewhat defensive team from them as well. Panama has our game sandwiched around 2 home games. They have to be thinking "just get a draw" at US and win the other two.
I think the US needs 4 points to qualify, so my 2 squads reflect that we need to get a point from Mex and 3 from Panama. I have no interest in a scenario where we need points in Costa Rica.
So my XI is with the thought of: "best Xi for a defensive shell game" for Mex and "best XI for an opponent defensive shell" game against Panama.
Mexico Game:
Pulisic----Fereierra----Arriola
Acosta---Adams---De La Torre
Jedi---Robinson--Zimmerman--Cannon
---------Horvath-------
If Adams picks up a second yellow so be it, this is the game where we need him. A defensive 6 isn't going to be a huge need against Panama. Arriola's speed can be good on counter and his teaming up with Fereira is a bonus.
Panama game:
Pulisic----Pefok---Weah
Musah---Adams---De La Torre
Jedi---Robinson--Zimmerman--Yedlin
----Horvath----
So Acosta in for Adams this game if Adams picks up a yellow in Mexico or cannot physically handle 2 games in a row.
Horvath starts both, he has been playing more and I am more confident in him.
Saving Reyna as a super sub for both games, but if he can go 90 then put him in for De la Torre in Panama game.
Im not starting or playing anyone important sitting on a yellow. I do agree that we have the ability to steal a point at Mexico, and we should play accordingly.
US has never beaten Mexico 3 times in a calendar year before either. Past peformance is not an indicator of future results.DeangeloVickers said:
All time, the Americans are 18-16-6 against Costa Rica, with a 15-6-4 record on home soil. They haven't lost to Costa Rica since Sept. 1, 2017 in Harrison, New Jersey, winning the last three meetings under Berhalter.
In qualifying, the USMNT is 3-1-1 in the past five qualifying cycles at home against Costa Rica, but is 0-5 on the road. The USMNT has never won at Costa Rica.
I think the talent level and mentality between this iteration of USMNT compared to prior versions is very different, for the better. It's unfortunate that we've suffered some key injuries but the group still should be capable of getting a result on the road in Costa Rica.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
The fact that you disagree with me convinces me even more that my strategy is right.
Adams is the one player we have on a yellow that I have playing against Mexico. A defense first 6 is not what we are going to need against a park the bus Panama. I love Adams, but the Mexico game is more where he is needed.
And we do need three against Panama, but we also need a 4th point. I prefer a strategy where we get that against Mexico and not wait until the CR game.
Adams is a better fit for Mexico match and Acosta is a better fit for Panama.
Adams is the one player we have on a yellow that I have playing against Mexico. A defense first 6 is not what we are going to need against a park the bus Panama. I love Adams, but the Mexico game is more where he is needed.
And we do need three against Panama, but we also need a 4th point. I prefer a strategy where we get that against Mexico and not wait until the CR game.
Adams is a better fit for Mexico match and Acosta is a better fit for Panama.
Adams has played just 12 minutes for Leipzig this month. This month has been partly about fitness, but he hasn't played a full 90 in any competition since the El Salvador game on Jan 28, and his lack of minutes on Feb for Leipzig was due to no longer being the best 6 on the team.
Due to his lack of minutes, I'm honestly not sure he could play a full 90 against either team right now, let alone start both games. And I'm torn on which one to play him in.
I tend to agree with Aston's approach. The main reason Adams has been passed up on the Leipzig roster the past few months is due to his inability to create chances. Obviously you don't need a 6 to do that often, but you don't want him to be dead weight in attack either. It's certainly an area of his game he needs to work on. He's one of the best DMs at playing defense and at side-to-side possession, but he rarely moves the ball forward in meaningful ways.
So I tend to agree that we play him in the game where we need his defensive prowess the most, and sit him in the game where we need to be creative to break down a defense.
(On the other hand, even if Acosta is better moving the ball forward and provides utility on set pieces, he's worse than Adams at everything else, so I can see the argument to play him there too… you can only create chances if you get the ball into the final third, and that will certainly happen more often with Adams over Acosta. Maybe it's just my BAS (A= American) talking, but I feel like this is gonna suck either way without McKinney.)
Due to his lack of minutes, I'm honestly not sure he could play a full 90 against either team right now, let alone start both games. And I'm torn on which one to play him in.
I tend to agree with Aston's approach. The main reason Adams has been passed up on the Leipzig roster the past few months is due to his inability to create chances. Obviously you don't need a 6 to do that often, but you don't want him to be dead weight in attack either. It's certainly an area of his game he needs to work on. He's one of the best DMs at playing defense and at side-to-side possession, but he rarely moves the ball forward in meaningful ways.
So I tend to agree that we play him in the game where we need his defensive prowess the most, and sit him in the game where we need to be creative to break down a defense.
(On the other hand, even if Acosta is better moving the ball forward and provides utility on set pieces, he's worse than Adams at everything else, so I can see the argument to play him there too… you can only create chances if you get the ball into the final third, and that will certainly happen more often with Adams over Acosta. Maybe it's just my BAS (A= American) talking, but I feel like this is gonna suck either way without McKinney.)
Mr. jeffk. I think you have a job to do today. The fate of America rests at your fingertips.
Doneski!
Mood this week
Did they call anyone in to replace Aaronson?
No. If they do call someone in I would imagine they would do so right after the Mexico game (i.e. if another injury dictates it or if we have a player get a red, etc.)Aye Davanita said:
Did they call anyone in to replace Aaronson?
Guilty.DeangeloVickers said:
Mood this week
I'll say this… if GGG does well this window, he gets a pass from me for long while. It's not gonna be a walk in the park to preserve this lead.
I'll also add that I'll stop griping about Reyna if he proves to be a difference-maker this window. He certainly has the potential and I'd love to see him step up big.
You would think Acosta's set piece ability makes him a default starter against both Mexico and Panama. We may not get a lot of chances through run of play The US has a history of winning these types of games based solely on solid defense and effective set pieces.deadbq03 said:
provides utility on set pieces,
That's a fair point.
Acosta is one of those players that I've felt is worth starting in WCQ, but won't be worth starting in the actual WC. Dude is pure CONCACAF.
(Brooks may be the exact inverse, or at least I thought so until his form also slipped at Wolfsburg)
Acosta is one of those players that I've felt is worth starting in WCQ, but won't be worth starting in the actual WC. Dude is pure CONCACAF.
(Brooks may be the exact inverse, or at least I thought so until his form also slipped at Wolfsburg)
So wait, has Adams' lack of minutes been entirely due to form/recovery? If so, from what?
I'm behind on this. I haven't been keeping up with him because I just assumed he's always playing.
I'm behind on this. I haven't been keeping up with him because I just assumed he's always playing.
In March he's been a little gimpy… nothing serious. He was in individual training for a while with back pain.
But the real issue is that Konrad Laimer returned back in Dec from a very long injury. He's worked very hard and has earned the starting 6 job ahead of Adams. Adams is slightly better at defending, but worse in attack. Laimer is more of a box-to-box guy who is fully capable of defending (and can also play RB), but is far more dynamic in attack. At RB/RWB, Adams is probably 4th choice. It doesn't help that Leipzig are extremely deep… commentators talk about it every game.
But the real issue is that Konrad Laimer returned back in Dec from a very long injury. He's worked very hard and has earned the starting 6 job ahead of Adams. Adams is slightly better at defending, but worse in attack. Laimer is more of a box-to-box guy who is fully capable of defending (and can also play RB), but is far more dynamic in attack. At RB/RWB, Adams is probably 4th choice. It doesn't help that Leipzig are extremely deep… commentators talk about it every game.
Under previous management at Leipzig, before Marsh and the current/interim, I think Adams played a lot of CB in a 3-man back line and some RB. Regardless of whether they have someone they like better at 6, Adams should have a place in Leipzig's best XI if fully fit.
Good read on Reyna from the MLS site, interesting that he talks about liking to play more as a #10 as I'd like to see him more central for us.
https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/gio-reyna-on-long-awaited-usmnt-return-we-re-ready-for-all-the-things-that-rival
https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/gio-reyna-on-long-awaited-usmnt-return-we-re-ready-for-all-the-things-that-rival
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