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A strong storm system will impact the state of Texas on Tuesday

Strong to severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds will be possible Tuesday across SE TX.

Overview:
Deepening upper level trough over the SW US will continue eastward and into SW/W TX tonight/Tuesday and then exit the state early Wednesday morning over the ARLATX area. This system will bring dynamic weather to much of Texas starting late tonight and ending early Wednesday.

Dry air mass over SE TX this morning will undergo significant changes in the next 24 hours as upper level system moves into the state. Strong height falls this afternoon and tonight will force the development of surface low pressure over SC TX with quickly developing low level jet from deep south Texas across much of SE/E TX after midnight. Low level jet will quickly transport copious moisture northward from the SW/W Gulf of Mexico with significant air mass moistening through the air column by early Tuesday morning. PWS climb from a dry .30 of an inch to near 1.5 inches by early Tuesday. As the surface low deepens and moves toward the NE on Tuesday, a powerful low level jet of 45-55kts will be located over much of SE/E TX resulting in windy conditions. Wind advisory will likely be required for much of the area with isolated to scattered power outages possible. Lift rapidly increases Tuesday morning with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE across the region. Cold front moves quickly in from the west during the afternoon hours likely with a line of thunderstorms and sweeps across the area and out of the state by early evening.

Heavy Rainfall:
Overall setup supports a heavy rainfall threat on Tuesday with deep saturated moist layer, strong low level inflow and moisture transport, and strong upper level divergence over the region. High resolution and some of the global guidance have continued to hint at some sort of low level convergence boundary becoming established along the US 59 corridor around mid morning Tuesday which fires off heavy rainfall well ahead of the approaching front. This signal has shown up in the recent HRRR and helps to boost rainfall in the Fort Bend, Harris, and Liberty County area. Will need to monitor this closely on Tuesday as this could lead to a period of cell training of storms and quick rainfall accumulations.

Widespread rainfall of 1-3 inches is likely with isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible. Street flooding will be a concern in the heavier rainfall cores as hourly rates may approach 1-3 inches. Given the time of year, wet grounds, and dead vegetation from recent freezes, maximum run-off is likely and rises on area watersheds is expected, but current forecasted rainfall amounts should not lead to creek, bayou, river flooding.

Severe:
Impressive wind profiles will be in place with 80-100kt mid level jet carving across SE TX Tuesday afternoon. Instability is still lacking but may be just enough along and south of I-10 for severe thunderstorms to develop. SPC has upgraded the risk in that area into a (2 out of 5) slight risk. Given the wind profiles, damaging straight line winds and bowing line segments will be possible if storms can root near the surface. Wind gusts of 60-70mph will be possible with any bowing segments. Low level winds are backed enough near the coast, that low level storm rotation will be maximized and a tornado or two will be possible. Highest threat of severe is currently offshore, but if the local air mass is able to recover or destabilize a bit more than expected an additional upgrade on the severe threat will be required for areas south of I-10.

Winds:
As mentioned, impressive wind profiles will be in place over the area starting late tonight into Tuesday night. Strong low level jet overhead will be transported to the surface in showers with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts of 40-45mph much of Tuesday. Gusts may be higher near the coast and the inland bays. A wind advisory will likely be required for much of the area and these winds may down trees and tree limbs, result in isolated to scattered power outages, and move unsecured outdoor objects.

Marine:
Dangerous marine conditions will quickly develop late tonight into Tuesday as southerly winds rapidly increase into the 35-45kt range for all waters. Gale watch is in effect for all waters and will be upgraded to a warning this afternoon. Seas will quickly build 6-8 ft bays and 10-12ft offshore Gulf waters on Tuesday. Strong winds may result in elevated tides in the northern portion of Galveston Bay Tuesday along with wave run-up on the Gulf facing beaches. Line of strong to severe thunderstorms will cross the coastal waters Tuesday afternoon/evening with winds quickly veering to the W/NW at 30-4kts. Wind gusts with the line of storms of 50-55kts will be possible. Small craft should be in port by this evening and remain in port until winds and seas subside on Wednesday.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

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CDUB98 said:

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I did not mean to imply that Timmer was not a good source. From an objective point of view, he's good at this weather thing. He just also happens to be a tool.

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LIVE storm chase begins at 10 am with tornado threat in Texas to the west of Houston. We then plan to chase the nocturnal #tornado threat in Louisiana. NEW streaming tech. WATCH: https://t.co/ngNCLn76xj pic.twitter.com/973VROQXqh

— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerAccu) January 24, 2023

Live update on the threat of a strong #tornado including Houston. Supercells develop as early as late morning. Storm chase mode activated @accuweather @GetFlexSeal pic.twitter.com/x5QoR9SEom

— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerAccu) January 24, 2023

Jackal99 said:

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Dominate the storm? He should dominate the buttons he missed.

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Tornado Warning for southern Waller and west Harris.

Strong radar rotation NW of Fulshear moving NE

Seek safe shelter immediately pic.twitter.com/xFOGlR2TdZ

— Fort Bend County Office of HS&EM (@fbcoem) January 24, 2023

Watching two spots on the periphery of this broad rotation west of #Katy now.

Eventually headed northeast towards the NW Freeway.

11:23am #txwx pic.twitter.com/1YRTHwgIpR

— Collin Myers (@collinmyerswx) January 24, 2023

IAH terminal Doppler showing quickly advancing rotation couplet into west Harris County. Bridgeland, Towne Lake, Cypress this is quickly moving in your direction. Seek safe shelter immediately #houwx #txwx ⁦@HCPrecinct4⁩ pic.twitter.com/KCSFEuHdUX

— Jeff Lindner (@JeffLindner1) January 24, 2023

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Severe weather and heavy rainfall underway.

Conditions have quickly developed on the last hour with multiple tornado warnings and 1 confirmed tornado with damage near Eagle Lake and a funnel cloud at SH 249/Spring Cypress.

Tornadic supercells have quickly developed on the north side of the warm front with storms showing frequent and at times sustained long term rotation. Effectively any areas in the tornado watch will have a tornado and severe risk for the next 3-5 hours. Storm motions are very fast…40-50mph so warning lead times will be short.

Additionally, supercells have begun to train in a WSW to ENE fashion from Sealy to Cypress to Conroe. HCFCD gages show rainfall in the last 1.5 hours of 1.5-2.5 inches over NW Harris County with radar showing upwards of 3 inches near Sealy. Flash flooding will be possible as cell training continues along this corridor. Storms will eventually begin to move toward the E/ESE with time with heavy rainfall moving across all of the metro area early this afternoon.

Storms will quickly end with the cold front from west to east in the 300-500pm.

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