So if this ends up playing out even close to the worst case scenarios are we in for more rolling blackouts?
Icepocalypse watch 2022/2023
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Last: 1 yr ago by Jock 07
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WES2006AG said:
So if this ends up playing out even close to the worst case scenarios are we in for more rolling blackouts?
No. People don't understand why ERCOT failed last time. It was because of capacity being offline for maintenance .
A lot more capacity this time around and a lot of the NG stations have been fortified.
I'm sure wind and solar will **** the bed as always in winter storms, if that is what comes.
Guess we will see, hopefully they have made a little improvement and have the foresight to prepare ahead of time.
That's winter shorts weather.
aTm '99
Time to dust off the history books for "most extreme winter cold"
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 13, 2022
GFS 12z model (and others) advertising a 1070 mb high pressure with temperatures 50°F to 70°F below normal setting up over western North America.
Thursday Dec 22 +9-days is a bit far off, so details uncertain. pic.twitter.com/g3i4qxn9tl
Note, predictability in winter can extend to 7-10 days with certain weather patterns -- like this one.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 13, 2022
For those industries and businesses sensitive to extremely cold weather especially in the Rockies down to Texas, please watch the forecasts over next few days.
Can really see the cold air mass drop in to the south and southeast in the latest (12z) GFS temperature anomaly run. Time line is from today through 12/27, with the significantly cold air making it all the way across Texas between 12/22-23.
The ensemble model isn't so aggressive on the cold but the trend is about the same it appears.
The ensemble model isn't so aggressive on the cold but the trend is about the same it appears.
Like one big punch to the dick starting the 23rd
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GEFS (ensemble) is insane in the 12z. Very cold!
It's a blend of 21 different runs.
The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather model created by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) that generates 21 separate forecasts (ensemble members) to address underlying uncertainties in the input data such limited coverage, instruments or observing systems biases, and the the limitations of the model itself. GEFS quantifies these uncertainties by generating multiple forecasts, which in turn produce a range of potential outcomes based on differences or perturbations applied to the data after it has been incorporated into the model. Each forecast compensates for a different set of uncertainties.
It's a blend of 21 different runs.
The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather model created by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) that generates 21 separate forecasts (ensemble members) to address underlying uncertainties in the input data such limited coverage, instruments or observing systems biases, and the the limitations of the model itself. GEFS quantifies these uncertainties by generating multiple forecasts, which in turn produce a range of potential outcomes based on differences or perturbations applied to the data after it has been incorporated into the model. Each forecast compensates for a different set of uncertainties.
Hopefully my snow blower comes in by next week
It's like Siberia just splooged all over us. DAMN YOU, RUSSIA!!
tandy miller said:
Hopefully my snow blower comes in by next week
I'm pretty sure lex would come over any time you asked so you don't have to wait until next week.
The timing of this couldn't be crappier for holiday travel. Between actually driving with all the morons that have no idea how to navigate in those conditions, I don't look forward to doing more extreme winterizing of pipes since we won't be home to monitor things.
Oh no you d'int.
Cromagnum said:
I don't look forward to doing more extreme winterizing of pipes since we won't be home to monitor things.
Just shut your water off at the main and open all the faucets and spigots when you leave.
Sea Speed said:tandy miller said:
Hopefully my snow blower comes in by next week
I'm pretty sure lex would come over any time you asked so you don't have to wait until next week.
Ramrod said:Cromagnum said:
I don't look forward to doing more extreme winterizing of pipes since we won't be home to monitor things.
Just shut your water off at the main and open all the faucets and spigots when you leave.
Yeah, that's the easy part. I have a water softener that's outside that's going to be a mess to protect. I may need to build a plywood box around it and shove a heating lamp in there or something.
Same situation here.
No need for a heat lamp, just string up some incandescent Christmas lights inside there. That's how I protect my peach tree, I cover it with an old car cover and run a strand of C9 lights, keeps it fairly warm.Cromagnum said:Ramrod said:Cromagnum said:
I don't look forward to doing more extreme winterizing of pipes since we won't be home to monitor things.
Just shut your water off at the main and open all the faucets and spigots when you leave.
Yeah, that's the easy part. I have a water softener that's outside that's going to be a mess to protect. I may need to build a plywood box around it and shove a heating lamp in there or something.
That was my plan last Feb to protect some citrus trees. Worked until the power went out .
Reminds me I need to change the oil in the generator.
Not going to deal with another Uri situation.
Lord knows COH is a hot mess, so might as well prep water storage too.
Not going to deal with another Uri situation.
Lord knows COH is a hot mess, so might as well prep water storage too.
aTm '99
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We are headed out to our farm house south of Weimar to do just that and prep. Then to Longview to do Christmas early and help parents prep.
Good ole Longview (PTHS), grew up there from K to 13th grade at Kilgore Ju Co.Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
We are headed out to our farm house south of Weimar to do just that and prep. Then to Longview to do Christmas early and help parents prep.
Insulated thermal blankets. I bought a bunch off amazon in early Feb of '21 when the first signs that the models were aligning with a deep freeze. Protected all of my above ground pool piping and filter. Saved my bottle brush bushes, and several satsuma trees i have.
Not sure how large your trees are, but old car covers work great as long as they get down to the ground, regardless of an interior heat source.wessimo said:
That was my plan last Feb to protect some citrus trees. Worked until the power went out .
Link? I got lucky, not really sure how my filter and pipes survived without damage last time. I forgot to drain my multi-port valve and the housing cracked, but no leaking yet.Seabreeze said:
Insulated thermal blankets. I bought a bunch off amazon in early Feb of '21 when the first signs that the models were aligning with a deep freeze. Protected all of my above ground pool piping and filter. Saved my bottle brush bushes, and several satsuma trees i have.
I'll see if i can find the exact ones i ordered off my purchase list.
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Graduated from there too but if 95 is your Aggie class year, I'm 9 years behind you. Sounds like you went to school with Barker and Brett Murray.
the Planket 11200 Frost Protection Plant Cover, 10 x 20 ft Rectangular, Dark green https://a.co/d/6Atq2OQ
What i used, also covered in a light plastic tarp to keep dry. Held up well for me. Got to 13 degrees for me in Seabrook.
What i used, also covered in a light plastic tarp to keep dry. Held up well for me. Got to 13 degrees for me in Seabrook.
This will probably kill my lemon tree. It's huge, so not sure how I'd cover it. I got it from life
Oooh. Interested here too. This is our first year having a pool. Need to get that all sorted out and I am away. Putting several blankets over the whole system should do the trick?
Nah PTHS class of 95. Coach Turner for baseball. '99 & '03 Tamu.Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
Graduated from there too but if 95 is your Aggie class year, I'm 9 years behind you. Sounds like you went to school with Barker and Brett Murray.
Brett Murray, that does sound familiar, was he a basketball player? My brother is '89 PTHS.
If your not going to be home, blankets and plastic sheeting should do, cover it tight dont let the cold air in if you can.. Bleed your multi port valve as mentioned above.
I'll have my wife take a picture of it and get an idea of where that is so she can do that. Could also just keep the pump running the whole time as well i assume?
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