Doesn't hurt to prepare, but models are still all over the place on how cold it will be.

BayAg_14 said:

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Doesn't hurt to prepare, but models are still all over the place on how cold it will be.

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Correct. It's going to be cold (and that's relative to the person). As I stated earlier our ranges in the ensemble members
are a daily temp of 10 below normal to 50 below normal.

Yes, I saw the GFS for next week. No, it’s not likely to verify as shown. Yes, it’s going to get cold. No, we don’t know if that means a winter storm (an actual storm, not a Feb 2021 redux) too.

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) December 12, 2022

Accuweather may not be reliable but it shows 60 Christmas day with a low of 42.

jja79 said:

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Accuweather may not be reliable but it shows 60 Christmas day with a low of 42.

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That's the climatological average on that day., roughly.

Accuweather and TWC lean heavily on climo in their computer generated forecasts until a few days out.

So I may not be playing golf that day.

jja79 said:

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So I may not be playing golf that day.

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Depends. I played golf in 34 degree weather in November with a good wind. Day of Auburn game I believe. It didn't bother me but the cold has never bothered me.

100 and humid does.

AgLiving06 said:

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Yes, I saw the GFS for next week. No, it’s not likely to verify as shown. Yes, it’s going to get cold. No, we don’t know if that means a winter storm (an actual storm, not a Feb 2021 redux) too.

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) December 12, 2022

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That's odd that Matt tweeted that considering the models were mentioned and not 100% discounted in this mornings SCW post. Just said it's still long range

Well I'd stock up now just in case… ABC13 just sounded the alarm and you know this is going to send some into a spin.

ABC 13 weather team in Houston now mentioning Siberian air and giving an early heads up about "severe cold" by Christmas weekend…

"An arctic cold front?! Will this be a repeat of the February 2021 winter storm? And could we have a white Christmas?

It's too early to know exactly how we will be impacted by next week's arctic cold front, but a hard freeze and wintry precipitation are certainly possible. Bitter cold air from Siberia is expected to come across the arctic circle into Canada and the United States early next week. There is a moderately strong signal that this cold air will plunge into Texas, but we still don't know how cold it will get and whether or not any moisture will be available to generate wintry precip. We just want to give you an early heads up that things could turn severely cold by Christmas weekend with the arctic chill arriving in Houston as early as Thursday, December 22nd."

Came here to say the same… finally seen the local news taking about the "cold" weather about to show ip

GFS and Euro haven't changed much on the 00z runs this morning.

So earlier I tweeted about the BITTER COLD coming in behind the BLIZZARD for early next week but this is the cold wave that follows that one and the anomolies Ryan talks about are insane!! https://t.co/SDYD9fS0i9

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) December 13, 2022

Still far out, but models appears to be backing off on the snow and temperature extrimeties for now.

Space City Weather

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Tuesday and beyond

We've got a cold front penciled in for Tuesday of next week, which may drop lows into the 30s for a few days. After that the most plausible scenario is a shot of even colder Arctic air, as discussed at the outset of this post. It becomes really difficult to parse details beyond this, but the overall pattern does support the influx of much colder air just prior to, and on Christmas Day. I think the atmosphere probably will be too dry to squeeze out any snowfall, but at this point I would not entirely rule out a white Christmas in Houston. I just would not put the chances at much higher than 10 percent at this point.

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Agz_2003 said:

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Still far out, but models appears to be backing off on the snow and temperature extrimeties for now.

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Not really. The 6z ensemble means are silly cold. Until we get within 5-7 days, the GFS operational is fun to follow but low accuracy. Follow the ensembles.

Once we get to Friday start following what's happening on the main operationals as our cold will be firmly in Canada.

Agz_2003 said:

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Space City Weather

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Tuesday and beyond

We've got a cold front penciled in for Tuesday of next week, which may drop lows into the 30s for a few days. After that the most plausible scenario is a shot of even colder Arctic air, as discussed at the outset of this post. It becomes really difficult to parse details beyond this, but the overall pattern does support the influx of much colder air just prior to, and on Christmas Day. I think the atmosphere probably will be too dry to squeeze out any snowfall, but at this point I would not entirely rule out a white Christmas in Houston. I just would not put the chances at much higher than 10 percent at this point.

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Added

The lead off was interesting as well.

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However, after one more day the greater Houston region will see a shift toward more winter-like weather. It is not going to get spectacularly cold, rather temperatures will just slip back toward our typical December pattern of highs generally in the 60s, with lows in the 40s. The real question is what comes after that. Looking at the big picture, we can see that the coldest air mass on the planet, at present, lies over the Siberia region of Russia, where surface temperatures in some locations are in the -55 to -75 degree Fahrenheit range.

The pattern over the next week suggests that this very cold air will be drawn into Canada. After that, it's a matter of where this air mass goes. A preponderance of modeling brings it down into the Central United States. And then? Well the question is whether the air continues diving into the deep South, toward the Gulf of Mexico, or is shunted more eastward. At this point we are talking about weather 8 to 10 days from now, so uncertainty in this is high. However, there is clearly the potential for very cold air to move into Texas, whereby we could see lows in the teens over the Christmas holiday in Houston. Low temperatures might also be 40 degrees. This far out it is difficult to forecast with any real confidence. But it is going to get cold during the last week of this year. Perhaps even very cold to the point where we need to worry about pipes, pets, plants, and power. We should have more confidence in this forecast in a couple of days.

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I almost want to think SCW is trying to slowly get behind the cold cold weather pushing in. I'd love a actual cold Christmas, even if it's not a white Christmas

Went from denying it yesterday to some pretty strong hints, and heads up in today's post.

Latest from Linder:

Next Week:
Almost all of the focus will be with a potential major arctic air intrusion into the US starting early next week. Upper air pattern will result in a building Alaskan ridge which will help to dislodge extremely cold Siberian air (currently -55 to -75F) and send this air mass over the Arctic Ocean and in the general direction of NW Canada. As this air mass moves into NW Canada an impressive 1055-1070mb arctic surface high pressure dome forms and begins to drop southward toward the Montana border early next week. Extremely cold air is dislodged and begins to move southward with widespread -40 to -50 F into SW Canada and approaching the US border. Upper air pattern then supports this air mass being unleashed into the US early to mid next week. IF model solutions are correct and a 1060-1065mb high is located near the Montana border early next week, there will be little to stop the incredibly dense air mass from pouring southward down the plains.

Since we are still talking in the day 7-9 range for any impacts in the southern plains, will follow the ensemble mean of the GFS, CMC, and ECWMF which all show below to well below normal temperatures starting as early as the 22nd and lasting through the 26/27th. I strongly caution against individual model runs showing various winter storm events as there has been little consistency from run to run and between the different models.

The biggest questions at this point is how cold of an air mass builds into NW Canada this weekend, how much of this cold air comes as far south as TX, does this air mass modify any as it moves southward, will there be any winter precipitation next week. The answers to these questions will reveal themselves over the next few days. My advice at this point is to closely monitor forecasts for next week and be prepared to take cold weather protective actions if that need becomes a reality.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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I initially thought those temperatures were in F.

No… times it by 1.8

That'd be some Day After Tomorrow shlt and we'd all be fleeing to Mexico.

Well when you have a modeled 1072 Arctic High over Idaho (that shatters the national record…. 1064 in 1983) and a snowpack to our north down to Texas border, that solution may be too warm.

We're gonna freeze our nipples off

Martin Q. Blank said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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I initially thought those temperatures were in F.

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That's temperature anomaly, not temperature. Basically means a 30F temp drop expected around Houston.

Not exactly.


That's the ensemble mean, meaning 30F below normal as the mean.

What is a normal low this time of year for Houston?

tandy miller said:

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What is a normal low this time of year for Houston?

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Mid 40s from what I found. So that would mean a 30ish degree drop from that potentially.

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December Weather in Houston Texas, United States
Daily high temperatures decrease by 5F, from 69F to 64F, rarely falling below 49F or exceeding 79F.

Daily low temperatures decrease by 5F, from 52F to 47F, rarely falling below 35F or exceeding 66F.

For reference, on August 6, the hottest day of the year, temperatures in Houston typically range from 77F to 95F, while on January 5, the coldest day of the year, they range from 47F to 63F.

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For Houston proper, 45 in late December.

For those of us north it's around 40-42.