Yeah it's looking like a bad deal right now, but the total salary is misleading. Brock won't come close to getting the full $72M unless he has a drastic turnaround.

I'm convinced he does nothing but throw to his primary read every time. I mean it's the only explanation for some of these throws.

Bilbo basically said that in the game thread. Game is moving to fast for him

We were in that game until Alfred Blue fumbled near the end of the 3rd quarter. The previous drive ended in a field goal and it felt like we had Denver on it's heels. Brock was even showing positive signs. Then the team completely melted:

-Blue fumbles on the Denver 27 yard line.
-Kubiak runs it right down our throats.
-Brock shot puts the ball back to Denver.

There was a good chance we could have gone into the 4th quarter with the LEAD and a little bit of confidence. Instead we had a two touchdown deficit against a defense that has the best defensive football player on the planet. Game. Set. Match.

Even though we looked bad (Brock especially), I still feel like we gave that game away.

DEN had 119 yards rushing BEFORE CONTACT. That's 119 yards before the rusher was even touched.

That's horrible and inexcusable.

There are holes everywhere on this team and it's not a Brock problem. Him and the offense are one big part of the problem but this team is hardly mediocre QB play away from being a good team.

I have a question...I'm sure there is someone in here that knows a helluva lot more than I do about this so please educate me.

I'm like an abused animal when it comes to Houston Sports Radio, namely 610, and I just can't seem to stay away from it even though I can't stand Mike Meltser in the morning.

All they do is talk about how "complex" and "advanced" Bill Obriens offense is and that's why they actually suck.

My question is, what the hell is so complicated about their offense that apparently no one else does? Seems like running an offense is pretty simple IMHO. Establish a running game, use the running game to open up the passing game, and on 3rd and 3...RUN A 4 YARD SLANT!!!!

I've never played football, much less at a high level, but I've seen enough Gruden QB camp and Hard Knocks to know NFL offenses aren't simple. It's not nearly as easy as you make it sound.

It's my understanding that the BoB offense is complicated because of the reads the QB has to make based on what he sees from the defense at the line of scrimmage. He has to make and relay the correct read prior to the snap. The WR also has multiple route decisions based on how the coverage shapes up after the snap. He and the QB have to see the same thing or it doesn't work.

That's why a lot of times we're all wondering where the fck Brock is throwing. He and the WR see something different and the pass ends up going to no man's land.

Again, I could be way off based but this is what I've gathered through watching and listening.

You're absolutely right. I ran the veer in high school which is about as simple as it gets so I really don't have any concept of all the reads that need to be made by QB and WR.

That being said, would you agree that the mark of a great coach is being able to make adjustments? Chief does it all the time. If something doesn't work, either fix it, or change it. BoB seems to be content watching his offense be too complex and fail.

I'm a Broncos fan first, Texans fan second, but I don't really get into the X's and O's of NFL because frankly, most of it is over my head. I can keep up with College, but not so much when you take a step up to the pros.


The easiest way to describe the complexity in the NFL is this : Every pass play has reads built into it. One receiver might look like this on any given play :

If it's man coverage, run a go route
If it's cover 3, run a comeback route
If it's cover 2, run a post route.
If your guy blitzes, run a stick route.

The defense could be showing press man, but rotate to cover 3 at the snap. Both the WR and QB have to see that and adjust the route from a go route to a comeback route as the play progresses. Multiply that times how many receivers have read routes, and you can get complex pretty quickly. On top of that, most offenses call two plays. Play A, and Play B. Play A is the planned play call, but if you see or hear the quarterback say "kill, kill" that means they kill Play A, and run Play B.

That's just simple, standard NFL stuff. From everything I've heard, BoB's offense is much more complex than the average team. I don't know the details, though.

and the Texans still have their 2 games left vs. the Jags. That may be the road win this year

The Jags to me are the saddest of all the NFL teams. I was watching the college game last night and flipped over to the NFL during the half time and could not believe the 27-0 score. That just shouldn't happen to an NFL team. They have no fan support despite having a really beautiful stadium with great weather > 90% of the time. Their owner is always wanting them to play in London for some reason. I just don't really understand how they stay profitable as when they play @ home their stadium is nearly always empty.

I guess it is just my opinion though, looking at WIki there are several other teams that are lower percentage wise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Football_League_attendance_figures

Revenue Sharing is a big part of it.

Google reveals that each team received over $226 million in revenue share in 2014. Have to imagine it's gone up since then.

last night the NFL network showed a graphic of the Jaguars' last 7 first round picks. That's a huge part of the problem. One bad pick after another

Texans still perfect at home 5-0.

need to get that road win at Jax in 2 weeks

At the halfway point, I think we've seen the Texans show that they're above average, but not elite. As of right now, the Texans have the #1 SOS in the AFC and #2 in the NFL. 3 of their 5 wins are against teams that are .500 or better. Yet when they play the cream of the crop, they have not been particularly competitive. To state the obvious, they need better QB and OL play to contend with the elites. Maybe they can figure it out over the bye.

It is looking like they will win their bad division and likely lose I'm the wild card round. However that will be a home game so who knows!

I still hate the runs on 3rd and long.

Ryan34 said:

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At the halfway point, I think we've seen the Texans show that they're above average, but not elite. As of right now, the Texans have the #1 SOS in the AFC and #2 in the NFL. 3 of their 5 wins are against teams that are .500 or better. Yet when they play the cream of the crop, they have not been particularly competitive. To state the obvious, they need better QB and OL play to contend with the elites. Maybe they can figure it out over the bye.

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Coming into today Houston was 30th in DVOA; DET was 28th.

By unit Houston is 32nd in off DVOA, 12 on defense, and 31st on teams.

By unit DET is 13th in off DVOA, 32 on defense, 4 on teams.

And Houston won today, at home, by 7 points.

So above average? Not based on the conventional definition of that term. They are decidedly below average.

corleoneAg99 said:

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Ryan34 said:

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At the halfway point, I think we've seen the Texans show that they're above average, but not elite. As of right now, the Texans have the #1 SOS in the AFC and #2 in the NFL. 3 of their 5 wins are against teams that are .500 or better. Yet when they play the cream of the crop, they have not been particularly competitive. To state the obvious, they need better QB and OL play to contend with the elites. Maybe they can figure it out over the bye.

---

Coming into today Houston was 30th in DVOA; DET was 28th.

By unit Houston is 32nd in off DVOA, 12 on defense, and 31st on teams.

By unit DET is 13th in off DVOA, 32 on defense, 4 on teams.

And Houston won today, at home, by 7 points.

So above average? Not based on the conventional definition of that term. They are decidedly below average.

---

They're 5-3 with the hardest SOS in the NFL (now that the afternoon games are done). The 3 teams they've lost to have a combined 4 losses and are all in the top 2 of their respective conferences. So yeah, I'd say above average based on their record and schedule.

Right you said that already.

corleoneAg99 said:

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Ryan34 said:

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At the halfway point, I think we've seen the Texans show that they're above average, but not elite. As of right now, the Texans have the #1 SOS in the AFC and #2 in the NFL. 3 of their 5 wins are against teams that are .500 or better. Yet when they play the cream of the crop, they have not been particularly competitive. To state the obvious, they need better QB and OL play to contend with the elites. Maybe they can figure it out over the bye.

---

Coming into today Houston was 30th in DVOA; DET was 28th.

By unit Houston is 32nd in off DVOA, 12 on defense, and 31st on teams.

By unit DET is 13th in off DVOA, 32 on defense, 4 on teams.

And Houston won today, at home, by 7 points.

So above average? Not based on the conventional definition of that term. They are decidedly below average.

---

Record is all that matters in the NFL. This isn't the MLB where you get 162 games and a large sample size to have truly meaningful advanced analytics (600+ ABs, 200 IP, etc.). DVOA isn't "conventional" at all.

DVOA isn't meaningful to me. By definition, the Texans are slightly above average half way through the season, but clearly not elite. By any measure, they have played an incredibly tough schedule.

We all know the offense is struggling, and is clearly a below average unit, but defense is dominating the league right now, and with good reason.

interesting game next week Denver at Oakland. The loser will be a likely wildcard round visitor to NRG

Buck Compton said:

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corleoneAg99 said:

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Ryan34 said:

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At the halfway point, I think we've seen the Texans show that they're above average, but not elite. As of right now, the Texans have the #1 SOS in the AFC and #2 in the NFL. 3 of their 5 wins are against teams that are .500 or better. Yet when they play the cream of the crop, they have not been particularly competitive. To state the obvious, they need better QB and OL play to contend with the elites. Maybe they can figure it out over the bye.

---

Coming into today Houston was 30th in DVOA; DET was 28th.

By unit Houston is 32nd in off DVOA, 12 on defense, and 31st on teams.

By unit DET is 13th in off DVOA, 32 on defense, 4 on teams.

And Houston won today, at home, by 7 points.

So above average? Not based on the conventional definition of that term. They are decidedly below average.

---

Record is all that matters in the NFL. This isn't the MLB where you get 162 games and a large sample size to have truly meaningful advanced analytics (600+ ABs, 200 IP, etc.). DVOA isn't "conventional" at all.

DVOA isn't meaningful to me. By definition, the Texans are slightly above average half way through the season, but clearly not elite. By any measure, they have played an incredibly tough schedule.

We all know the offense is struggling, and is clearly a below average unit, but defense is dominating the league right now, and with good reason.

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Correct. DVOA is not conventional. So here are some conventional stats that may also be funny?

Texans are the 16th in the NFL in point allowed per game.

8th in yards allowed per game.

So, like "above average", the Texans aren't dominating the league with their defense.

If you're into how "dominating" is usually defined, that is.

I said defense is dominating the league. Not the Texans' defense. The Texans' defense has been "good, not great", but has carried the team.

The Texans have a good defense, even without JJ Watt. With defenses around the league playing better and outmatching offenses, a good defense is overshadowing a bad offense and leading teams to victory. The Texans are a perfect example.

You mentioned DVOA and tried to say that means that by conventional terms, the Texans are decidedly below average. I know I'd take them against your Ravens this year.

Buck Compton said:

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I said defense is dominating the league. Not the Texans' defense. The Texans' defense has been "good, not great", but has carried the team.

The Texans have a good defense, even without JJ Watt. With defenses around the league playing better and outmatching offenses, a good defense is overshadowing a bad offense and leading teams to victory. The Texans are a perfect example.

You mentioned DVOA and tried to say that means that by conventional terms, the Texans are decidedly below average. I know I'd take them against your Ravens this year.

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Ahh. Yes, the top 4 teams in DVOA coming into this week were Min, Den, PHI, and Sea.

I know you don't like the stat but it agrees with your point.

And while the Texans D is better than average, they have one of the worst offenses in the game. DVOA is opponent adjusted so it's generally accepted as a good measure of performance to date.

And the Texans have performed below average.

We can start another thread to talk about the wide array of problems with DVOA. You simply can't aggregate play-by-play data and hope to show a meaningful trend for 16 distinct games where everyone doesn't play each other. When expected win totals are off by an average of about 20%, it isn't a reliable statistic.

If we are 5-3 with below average play, then I can't wait to see our above average play. As frustrating as the team is to watch, I am holding out some hope that they continue to work with Brock to build up confidence and find ways to win ballgames - just improve every week.

Buck Compton said:

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We can start another thread to talk about the wide array of problems with DVOA. You simply can't aggregate play-by-play data and hope to show a meaningful trend for 16 distinct games where everyone doesn't play each other. When expected win totals are off by an average of about 20%, it isn't a reliable statistic.

If we are 5-3 with below average play, then I can't wait to see our above average play. As frustrating as the team is to watch, I am holding out some hope that they continue to work with Brock to build up confidence and find ways to win ballgames - just improve every week.

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No stat is perfect but in terms of week to week opponent adjusted performance, I'll take it. The sample size is more than adequate regardless of the schedule and builds and adjusts week to week. It's not meant to be predictive at all. Just currently accurate.

Anyway in that division anything is possible so Texans are obviously in the playoff hunt, but 5-3 when the 5 are DET, KC, Ten, IND, and Chi isn't impressive and clearly doesn't indicate a better than average performance.

All I know is the Defensive side of things is very undervalued in the overall equation. I don't think overall performance can be classified one way or the other unless we compartmentalize.

In the playoffs last year, the team with the better defensive DVOA was 9-2, while that would only have been 5-6 for the team with the higher overall DVOA. Statistics are pretty useless if we aren't trying to use them as predictive measures.

/NERD FIGHT OVER

Overall happy with the team bouncing back this week. Weaknesses are still the weaknesses.

Lol , they are 5-3, so they are above average, average would be 4-4

Ags #1 said:

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Lol , they are 5-3, so they are above average, average would be 4-4

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Riveting argument over whether just below average or just above average!

The argument on the difference between being the 14th best team or 18th best team is one that must last for days! Dig your heels in boys!

Now that yall finished your nerd fight about our defense, someone go find a stat that describes our cruddy kickoff coverage. Every time we score I celebrate and then immediately feel a sense of dread because I know we have to kick off. Seems like there is always a really good chance the other team could immediately answer our score. We must have the worst kickoff coverage team in the NFL or somewhere close to the bottom...

Reports out that Andre Johnson is retiring today.

A little strange that the two best skill position players in Texans history both hang it up mid-season the same year.