Vaccines work.
Daily Charts
607,373 Views |
2786 Replies |
Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
PJYoung said:COVID-19 hospitalizations in Florida have reached the highest level since August. At the current rate it will reach the all-time high within 7 days https://t.co/Vp1tDrN1su pic.twitter.com/RH2L2FVy5U
— BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) July 29, 2021
Quote:
The flood of COVID-19 patients newly admitted to Florida hospitals is now far worse than at any point during its winter surge.
From looking at the raw #s and comparing them to last week it seems like Florida's hospital numbers are improving*. Maybe we will see a peak here soon.
*By improving I mean the rate of growth is slowing.
Rt under 1 for Florida as of yesterday, should start to see the drop in coming days
problem being the hospitalization tail might takes weeks still to resolve
cases may collapse tomorrow but it's already too late
cases may collapse tomorrow but it's already too late
Obviously deaths lag too (and I assume the last couple of days still need to be fully calculated), but it hasn't been an issue yetcone said:
problem being the hospitalization tail might takes weeks still to resolve
cases may collapse tomorrow but it's already too late
gougler08 said:Obviously deaths lag too (and I assume the last couple of days still need to be fully calculated), but it hasn't been an issue yetcone said:
problem being the hospitalization tail might takes weeks still to resolve
cases may collapse tomorrow but it's already too late
Yeah looking at that I'm afraid they might rival the previous peaks.
I didn't expect that because this time the population is so much younger.
My uninformed guess is you're seeing discharges and deaths start to net out new intakes. Takes about 2-3 weeks for severe cases to resolve.
But I base that on nothing other than the constant slope of the new case growth and a hunch, so big grain of salt...
But I base that on nothing other than the constant slope of the new case growth and a hunch, so big grain of salt...
Looks like deaths peak 2-3 weeks after cases, so not sure that we have the same steep slope as the last couple times, but may get higher than we'd all likePJYoung said:gougler08 said:Obviously deaths lag too (and I assume the last couple of days still need to be fully calculated), but it hasn't been an issue yetcone said:
problem being the hospitalization tail might takes weeks still to resolve
cases may collapse tomorrow but it's already too late
Yeah looking at that I'm afraid they might rival the previous peaks.
I didn't expect that because this time the population is so much younger.
Hospital population isn't broken down vax vs not vaxed
Too early to predict deaths off past info I would think.
Too early to predict deaths off past info I would think.
80sGeorge said:
Hospital population isn't broken down vax vs not vaxed
Ask any doctor that works in a hospital?
It's been running at roughly 95% unvaxxed in the hospital but that will vary depending on what % of the population is vaccinated.
i.e. if 100% of the population is vaxxed then 100% of the hospital population would be vaxxed.
The vaccines are more than doing their job.
Oh I hear ya. Just hoping their situation is better than previous.
Found this info from Naples Hospitals. Hopefully the 16% vaxed results in better outcomes overall.
Between both of NCH's hospitals:
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days for Collier County is 19.2%.
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days at NCH is 21.1%.
NCH is currently caring for a total of 512 patients between our two hospitals.
Of that number, we are caring for 166 patients have tested positive for COVID.
Of that number, 140 patients, or approximately 84%, are unvaccinated.
Of that number, 40 patients are in the ICU.
Of that number, 24 patients are on vents.
Patient ages range from 15-98 with a median age of 60.
There are 3 pediatric patients
NCH has 31 employees who tested positive for COVID and/or isolated due to family or community related exposure. Between both of NCH's hospitals:
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days for Collier County is 19.2%.
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days at NCH is 21.1%.
NCH is currently caring for a total of 512 patients between our two hospitals.
Of that number, we are caring for 166 patients have tested positive for COVID.
Of that number, 140 patients, or approximately 84%, are unvaccinated.
Of that number, 40 patients are in the ICU.
Of that number, 24 patients are on vents.
Patient ages range from 15-98 with a median age of 60.
There are 3 pediatric patients
NCH has 31 employees who tested positive for COVID and/or isolated due to family or community related exposure.
Found this info from Naples Hospitals. Hopefully the 16% vaxed results in better outcomes overall.
Between both of NCH's hospitals:
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days for Collier County is 19.2%.
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days at NCH is 21.1%.
NCH is currently caring for a total of 512 patients between our two hospitals.
Of that number, we are caring for 166 patients have tested positive for COVID.
Of that number, 140 patients, or approximately 84%, are unvaccinated.
Of that number, 40 patients are in the ICU.
Of that number, 24 patients are on vents.
Patient ages range from 15-98 with a median age of 60.
There are 3 pediatric patients
NCH has 31 employees who tested positive for COVID and/or isolated due to family or community related exposure. Between both of NCH's hospitals:
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days for Collier County is 19.2%.
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days at NCH is 21.1%.
NCH is currently caring for a total of 512 patients between our two hospitals.
Of that number, we are caring for 166 patients have tested positive for COVID.
Of that number, 140 patients, or approximately 84%, are unvaccinated.
Of that number, 40 patients are in the ICU.
Of that number, 24 patients are on vents.
Patient ages range from 15-98 with a median age of 60.
There are 3 pediatric patients
NCH has 31 employees who tested positive for COVID and/or isolated due to family or community related exposure.
Ah I understand - more vaxxed in hospitals = less covid deaths.
There's this notion that it's only a matter of time before Delta explodes in other parts of the US as much as it has in the South but I don't see why that's obviously true. Case growth has slowed down in all four regions as compared with 2/3 weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/5r9pejUfYi
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 17, 2021
Why is there never any reports/statistics of co-morbidities in ICU cases?80sGeorge said:
Oh I hear ya. Just hoping their situation is better than previous.
Found this info from Naples Hospitals. Hopefully the 16% vaxed results in better outcomes overall.
Between both of NCH's hospitals:
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days for Collier County is 19.2%.
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days at NCH is 21.1%.
NCH is currently caring for a total of 512 patients between our two hospitals.
Of that number, we are caring for 166 patients have tested positive for COVID.
Of that number, 140 patients, or approximately 84%, are unvaccinated.
Of that number, 40 patients are in the ICU.
Of that number, 24 patients are on vents.
Patient ages range from 15-98 with a median age of 60.
There are 3 pediatric patients
NCH has 31 employees who tested positive for COVID and/or isolated due to family or community related exposure. Between both of NCH's hospitals:
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days for Collier County is 19.2%.
The COVID positivity rate for the last 7 days at NCH is 21.1%.
NCH is currently caring for a total of 512 patients between our two hospitals.
Of that number, we are caring for 166 patients have tested positive for COVID.
Of that number, 140 patients, or approximately 84%, are unvaccinated.
Of that number, 40 patients are in the ICU.
Of that number, 24 patients are on vents.
Patient ages range from 15-98 with a median age of 60.
There are 3 pediatric patients
NCH has 31 employees who tested positive for COVID and/or isolated due to family or community related exposure.
Statewide Trends
Regional Trends
Hospital Regions
Regional Trends
Hospital Regions
Why is our hospital/ICU census so high but fatalities so low, relatively?
Are our therapeutics that much better than they were at the beginning?
It just seems odd that the hospitals are all busting at the seams (which I believe), but our fatalities are a fraction of what they were when our hospitals were less full.
Are our therapeutics that much better than they were at the beginning?
It just seems odd that the hospitals are all busting at the seams (which I believe), but our fatalities are a fraction of what they were when our hospitals were less full.
Just spit balling, but probably a combination of better therapeutics and higher vaccination rates among the (previously) higher fatality-prone age cohorts. Even with break through infections vaccinations remain incredibly resilient in preventing serious disease courses.
That and deaths are a trailing metric. If you have one person that takes a test and it comes back positive, then that person eventually becomes a fatality statistic, it takes about 5 weeks(ish) for that whole process to unfurl. The fatality charts are retroactively updated so the curve at the tail end is always lower than the "actual" total... That said, I'm hopeful the fatalities curves will be a fraction of what they were previously even though the peak of this wave appears to be trending as high or higher than prior ones.
That and deaths are a trailing metric. If you have one person that takes a test and it comes back positive, then that person eventually becomes a fatality statistic, it takes about 5 weeks(ish) for that whole process to unfurl. The fatality charts are retroactively updated so the curve at the tail end is always lower than the "actual" total... That said, I'm hopeful the fatalities curves will be a fraction of what they were previously even though the peak of this wave appears to be trending as high or higher than prior ones.
Fitch said:
Just spit balling, but probably a combination of better therapeutics and higher vaccination rates among the (previously) higher fatality-prone age cohorts. Even with break through infections vaccinations remain incredibly resilient in preventing serious disease courses.
That and deaths are a trailing metric. If you have one person that takes a test and it comes back positive, then that person eventually becomes a fatality statistic, it takes about 5 weeks(ish) for that whole process to unfurl. The fatality charts are retroactively updated so the curve at the tail end is always lower than the "actual" total... That said, I'm hopeful the fatalities curves will be a fraction of what they were previously even though the peak of this wave appears to be trending as high or higher than prior ones.
Is there any reason to think that they're keeping people in the hospital now that they would have sent home a year or more ago? I remember early on docs saying that if they could sat over 92% on room oxygen, they'd write them a scrip for o2 and send them on, I wonder if they're still doing that.
It would just seem that with such a large portion of the population vaccinated or with antibodies, there wouldn't be that much of a population to need hospitalization even if they caught it.
I'd be speculating at best on that. Maybe some docs in the field could weigh in.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Joe Boudain said:Fitch said:
Just spit balling, but probably a combination of better therapeutics and higher vaccination rates among the (previously) higher fatality-prone age cohorts. Even with break through infections vaccinations remain incredibly resilient in preventing serious disease courses.
That and deaths are a trailing metric. If you have one person that takes a test and it comes back positive, then that person eventually becomes a fatality statistic, it takes about 5 weeks(ish) for that whole process to unfurl. The fatality charts are retroactively updated so the curve at the tail end is always lower than the "actual" total... That said, I'm hopeful the fatalities curves will be a fraction of what they were previously even though the peak of this wave appears to be trending as high or higher than prior ones.
Is there any reason to think that they're keeping people in the hospital now that they would have sent home a year or more ago? I remember early on docs saying that if they could sat over 92% on room oxygen, they'd write them a scrip for o2 and send them on, I wonder if they're still doing that.
It would just seem that with such a large portion of the population vaccinated or with antibodies, there wouldn't be that much of a population to need hospitalization even if they caught it.
Just anecdotally speaking, one of our employee's has a husband who spent like 4 days in the hospital with covid and they sent him home last week - on oxygen.
So yes, I think it's still happening. Probably not as often as it happened when hospitalizations were at their peak last year.
Florida becomes first US state where the daily deaths in current wave have exceeded previous waves. pic.twitter.com/xK9UK2don8
— Vincent Rajkumar (@VincentRK) August 22, 2021
The hospitalized populations are trending younger. There's less risk of death, but a lot of these people are lingering in the hospital for a long time. We have patients having trouble weaning off of high flow oxygen and are staying for weeks. We don't have great capacity to ship them out to places for rehab so they stay and take up bed space. The length of stay issue is really the biggest factor in my opinion.
That being said, if someone is getting better and stable on a nasal cannula, they are being sent home with home oxygen.
That being said, if someone is getting better and stable on a nasal cannula, they are being sent home with home oxygen.
PJYoung said:Florida becomes first US state where the daily deaths in current wave have exceeded previous waves. pic.twitter.com/xK9UK2don8
— Vincent Rajkumar (@VincentRK) August 22, 2021
This is Florida's biggest outbreak. They didn't have much of a winter surge. Of course their numbers are going to look worse compared to the winter.
It's remarkable, though, that the 65+ population in Florida is over 81% fully vaccinated, and 94% had at least one vaccine and the curve looks that way.
That the fatalities are trending higher when the age cohort that represented 75-80% of the overall deaths is so highly vaccinated leads one to surmise the fatalities are trending younger, unless you care to believe the vaccines are just having no effect in preventing serious disease course... which sort of is verifiably not the case.
That the fatalities are trending higher when the age cohort that represented 75-80% of the overall deaths is so highly vaccinated leads one to surmise the fatalities are trending younger, unless you care to believe the vaccines are just having no effect in preventing serious disease course... which sort of is verifiably not the case.
Makes sense to me. Thank you
Seems the peak is in for FL hospitalizations, but it did get way worse than I expectedPJYoung said:
gougler08 said:Seems the peak is in for FL hospitalizations, but it did get way worse than I expectedPJYoung said:
Yeah I think they are very near the peak or past it depending on what the new school year does.
EDIT: and yeah with the younger cohort I'm shocked it got so much worse than last summer.
this **** is everywhere
Shouldn't be too surprising. This chart simply states that there are more people in the hospital with COVID than there were during the other peaks. If there are more cases in the general population because of the transmissibility, than it should lead one to believe the patient population in the hospital is also seeing more cases regardless if they are actually in the hospital for COVID. Since the hospitalized population is trending younger, I would like to see the ICU bed peak compared to the other two waves.
I was curious about the ICU numbers. Using data fromAggieFactor said:
Shouldn't be too surprising. This chart simply states that there are more people in the hospital with COVID than there were during the other peaks. If there are more cases in the general population because of the transmissibility, than it should lead one to believe the patient population in the hospital is also seeing more cases regardless if they are actually in the hospital for COVID. Since the hospitalized population is trending younger, I would like to see the ICU bed peak compared to the other two waves.
https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/
and
For Houston TSA area:
and
and
AggieFactor said:
Shouldn't be too surprising. This chart simply states that there are more people in the hospital with COVID than there were during the other peaks. If there are more cases in the general population because of the transmissibility, than it should lead one to believe the patient population in the hospital is also seeing more cases regardless if they are actually in the hospital for COVID. Since the hospitalized population is trending younger, I would like to see the ICU bed peak compared to the other two waves.
Yeah that's what is surprising to me about this wave.
Way younger and every bit as sick. I did not expect it at all.