Some of the states hardest hit by the Delta surge showing some indication that their epidemic waves could be starting to peak. https://t.co/gwGNlc544i pic.twitter.com/3M566nDLY6
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) July 28, 2021
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
He really thinks this is the final push that makes Covid like a seasonal flu.
Also thinks mask mandates are silly, by the time they are in place we will be out of this.
Also thinks mask mandates are silly, by the time they are in place we will be out of this.
We'll still have the big increase in the winter, don't you think?
To me it seems like this thing is simply seasonal and regardless of masks or vaccines, it's going to go through this same cycle every year.
To me it seems like this thing is simply seasonal and regardless of masks or vaccines, it's going to go through this same cycle every year.
We will see seasonal increases, but once this has had a chance to run through most people either through natural infection or vaccination, the death rate will drop off and it's just like a cold or flu.
We can look at England, they are currently showing this.
This is really what the hope was all along, not that we eradicate, but we turn it into a cold or flu.
I hope policy changes to reflect the risk once we get out of this final big wave.
We can look at England, they are currently showing this.
This is really what the hope was all along, not that we eradicate, but we turn it into a cold or flu.
I hope policy changes to reflect the risk once we get out of this final big wave.
I think that's exactly why they are being brought out again. They want to be able to use this as evidence of their efficacy.KlinkerAg11 said:
He really thinks this is the final push that makes Covid like a seasonal flu.
Also thinks mask mandates are silly, by the time they are in place we will be out of this.
Of course, the curves will look similar everywhere, even Florida and Texas.
Theoretically it will get less and less each cycle, especially in terms of hospitalizations and deaths. In addition to vaccinations going up and up, natural immunity appears to be strong and potentially lifetime lasting, in terms of preventing severe cases at least. Eventually, it just has to run out of hosts it can put in the hospital and/or kill. But we will have to stop testing like we do, treating cases like we do, etc. And by eventually, I mean months ago.AggieAuditor said:
We'll still have the big increase in the winter, don't you think?
To me it seems like this thing is simply seasonal and regardless of masks or vaccines, it's going to go through this same cycle every year.
That's exactly what I mean by policy.
At some point it doesn't make sense to post daily numbers and hospitalized numbers. Or maybe limit tests to symptomatic individuals.
When will that point be reached? I have no idea.
At some point it doesn't make sense to post daily numbers and hospitalized numbers. Or maybe limit tests to symptomatic individuals.
When will that point be reached? I have no idea.
It's coming. Who knows when but eventually our attention will be shifted elsewhere.
KlinkerAg11 said:
That's exactly what I mean by policy.
At some point it doesn't make sense to post daily numbers and hospitalized numbers. Or maybe limit tests to symptomatic individuals.
When will that point be reached? I have no idea.
That point is long gone. The fact that they are pushing to bring back masks should tell you all you need to know about the logic and science being used to make decisions in regard to Covid.
Here is a plot I put together for my own info-tainment this morning for Harris County. There is a lot of hard data behind this but also a lot of assumptions so is very likely worth what you paid me for it. Attempted to look at what portion of the Houston population is still theoretically susceptible.
coolerguy12 said:KlinkerAg11 said:
That's exactly what I mean by policy.
At some point it doesn't make sense to post daily numbers and hospitalized numbers. Or maybe limit tests to symptomatic individuals.
When will that point be reached? I have no idea.
That point is long gone. The fact that they are pushing to bring back masks should tell you all you need to know about the logic and science being used to make decisions in regard to Covid.
Masks were a pacifier to "allow" businesses to open. Bringing masks back serves no purpose but to kill the recovery.
COVID-19 hospitalizations in Florida have reached the highest level since August. At the current rate it will reach the all-time high within 7 days https://t.co/Vp1tDrN1su pic.twitter.com/RH2L2FVy5U
— BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) July 29, 2021
yikes
None of Florida's numbers seem possible if vaccines worked in preventing hospitals, especially combining with what has to be increasingly high natural immunity. It's just kind of crazy.
But I do expect it to taper off in the 7-10 days, then drop quickly
But I do expect it to taper off in the 7-10 days, then drop quickly
A lot of floridas older population is going to hospital with even a simple cold.
Have the hospitals become overwhelmed yet? When do we set up the field hospitals?
Actually, yeah, hospitals in many parts of the country are overwhelmed. Here in San Antonio during my last overnight shift, every single hospital in the city was on EMS diversion, meaning ERs were so overwhelmed that they were diverting EMS traffic away from them. A lot of this is due to a national nursing shortage, but a lot of this is due to the COVID surge, as well.Phat32 said:
Have the hospitals become overwhelmed yet? When do we set up the field hospitals?
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Damn. Those hospitalization trends don't look great.
Thanks for your work.
Thanks for your work.
Honest question. How is the surge compared to if we followed it during a busy flu season? I seem to remember nurses telling me their hospitals were stressed during one of our last bust flu seasons. No public change was demanded. No one in the public even knew about it, being a free country and all it was never even considered to alter behavior over respiratory illnesses. I get the exhaustion and short staffing, part for sure. I guess I'm just asking if we are losing perspective in terms of always having some hospitals overwhelmed/stressed during respiratory seasons
The good news is Texas might be about to trend down. Per Keegan on another thread from the guys he follows closely:
Keegan99 said:
Texas likely peaked this week. Numbers should be down by next Friday.
Antigen positivity percentage dropped today and PCR positivity should soon follow.
The good news is Texas might be about to trend down. Per Keegan on another thread from the guys he follows closely:
Keegan99 said:
Texas likely peaked this week. Numbers should be down by next Friday.
Antigen positivity percentage dropped today and PCR positivity should soon follow.
It just seems that if it wasn't for the last 17 months of exhaustion, let's if say flu numbers during a normally staffed flu season were the exact same as this, we wouldn't hear a thing about it, and there wouldn't be much different that a busy flu season. We'd never know it was happening as an average person
Maybe so. Looks it's obviously terrible for many in healthcare. I figured that the day someone first mentioned it to me 17-18months ago. My first thought was literally that some people were probably going to die from it. That stinks. End of the day, doesn't change my opinions on public policy. Especially now. The data is there on how the individual can protect themselves.
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:Actually, yeah, hospitals in many parts of the country are overwhelmed. Here in San Antonio during my last overnight shift, every single hospital in the city was on EMS diversion, meaning ERs were so overwhelmed that they were diverting EMS traffic away from them. A lot of this is due to a national nursing shortage, but a lot of this is due to the COVID surge, as well.Phat32 said:
Have the hospitals become overwhelmed yet? When do we set up the field hospitals?
If the hospitals were fully staffed, what would be the bed and ICU bed availability?
I tried to find my own answer and saw this statement on covidactnow.org. It states "staffed adult ICU beds". That makes me think there is more capacity if we could find staff (ie it's a staffing problem not a capacity problem). It's like all the restaurants I go to with empty tables and a waiting list.
"Dallas County, Texas has reported having 679 staffed adult ICU beds. 520 are filled by non-COVID patients and 82 are filled by COVID patients. Overall, 602 out of 679 (89%) are filled. This suggests hospitals cannot absorb a wave of new COVID infections without substantial surge capacity."
"Dallas County, Texas has reported having 679 staffed adult ICU beds. 520 are filled by non-COVID patients and 82 are filled by COVID patients. Overall, 602 out of 679 (89%) are filled. This suggests hospitals cannot absorb a wave of new COVID infections without substantial surge capacity."
And I Know from other drs and nurses I've heard differently. So perspective always changes and I'm sure it's been a different experience for many
I don't see any uptick in fatalities that should have shown by now (following the rise in hospitalizations that began at the end of June). Has the threshold for hospital admission been lowered, the therapeutics that much better, or...what?Fitch said:
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the exhaustion is real though
folks are quitting
folks are quitting
Would seem to be that the age cohorts where most fatalities were occurring have largely been vaccinated and are avoid severe disease courses.
Hospitalizations are by most accounts nearly completely unvaccinated.
Hospitalizations are by most accounts nearly completely unvaccinated.
I think right now it's 97% of the hospitalizations are unvaxxed and well over 99% of the deaths are unvaxxed.Fitch said:
Would seem to be that the age cohorts where most fatalities were occurring have largely been vaccinated and are avoid severe disease courses.
Hospitalizations are by most accounts nearly completely unvaccinated.
under what time frame?
Unclear. I started seeing those stats for deaths in May of this year.cone said:
under what time frame?
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
Here is a plot I put together for my own info-tainment this morning for Harris County. There is a lot of hard data behind this but also a lot of assumptions so is very likely worth what you paid me for it. Attempted to look at what portion of the Houston population is still theoretically susceptible.
Thanks for this. Do you know how they are confirming the "vaccine only" group doesn't have natural immunity? Are they spike protein only? Or is it tied to no prior record illness or positive PCR test?
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