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Gordo14
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In reply to beerad12man • 2:50p, 4/19/21
beerad12man said:
It's just as ridiculous to say the goal should be zero(at least, act like that way publicly even if behind the scenes we want that), because like it or not, what comes with that are the irrational people who demand it for eternity no matter how low numbers are until absolute zero. Which is unlikely to ever occur unless immunity lasts forever for every human being.

It's great if we end up with 0 due to durable immunity. I'd love it. But..... There's also a wide gap between 0 and 70k, so no need for the hyperbole. I'm sure that poster realizes we'd like less than 70k.


Then people aren't ambitious enough. We will never get zero cases, but getting to no sustained societal transmission is easily within grasp. All we need is another 10-15% to get the shot or so. And all I said is that should be the goal. Gotta lecture me as if I suggested everyone should weld themselves into their houses for a year.

Somehow meerly suggesting that herd immunity is good is just too dramatic for Texags. Itonic given how many people claimed we had reached herd immunity in September.
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beerad12man
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In reply to Gordo14 • 3:12p, 4/19/21
AG
I have ambitions that we can all but eradicate this thing. But I guess what some are saying is that even herd immunity doesn't equal zero.

Herd immunity means we can have orgies in the streets and R is still less than 1. But there will almost for sure be some isolated cases somewhere in the world.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Gordo14 • 3:17p, 4/19/21
AG
Gordo14 said:
Salute The Marines said:
The goal was never 0 cases. That mindset is what's perpetuating the insanity. It was always supposed to be about hospitalizations.


It should be, as protection for the people that can't be vaccinated. I never said we should lock ourselves in our homes until we reach those numbers (which would still be on the scale of a couple thousand a day here in America by the way), but we shouldn't be satsified with a casual 70,000 people a day catching COVID in this country. Some of y'all are so ridiculous. I want us to reach true herd immunity by June and appearantly that is controversial.
Herd immunity is not zero cases. Herd immunity reduces the rate of spread (R) enough that a single case result in an out of control spread. Outbreaks may include a few individuals.

True 0 cases is disease eradication. We have been successful at doing that with exactly 1 virus (small pox) and it took decades of focused effort to accomplish. However, we don't seem to panic about the hundreds of cases of measles in the US each year, even with herd immunity.

Note: even if you eradicated COVID, we would likely have another coronavirus make the jump from animals to humans in the next 5-10 years.
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Aust Ag
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In reply to Squadron7 • 3:23p, 4/19/21
AG
Squadron7 said:
culdeus said:
Squadron7 said:
Working in the yard yesterday. Saw a guy my age (an old...so he's undoubtedly had the vax) riding his bike down the street....alone. With a mask.

How do you combat that?

What are this guy's personal metrics for "normal"?



People have reactions against people riding bikes in spandex as lance wannabees. Conformity to norms is a trigger point. I choose to live my life not worrying about what people on bikes wear or don't wear.

No spandex on this guy. I sort of know him. He's at least 70 and rides for exercise only. Rides in jeans.
Rides in jeans, that's awesome. Just like the old days. Does he also put a rubber band around the bottom of the jeans to keep them from being caught up in the chain?
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riverrataggie
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 3:24p, 4/19/21
AG
BiochemAg97 said:
Gordo14 said:
Salute The Marines said:
The goal was never 0 cases. That mindset is what's perpetuating the insanity. It was always supposed to be about hospitalizations.


It should be, as protection for the people that can't be vaccinated. I never said we should lock ourselves in our homes until we reach those numbers (which would still be on the scale of a couple thousand a day here in America by the way), but we shouldn't be satsified with a casual 70,000 people a day catching COVID in this country. Some of y'all are so ridiculous. I want us to reach true herd immunity by June and appearantly that is controversial.
Herd immunity is not zero cases. Herd immunity reduces the rate of spread (R) enough that a single case result in an out of control spread. Outbreaks may include a few individuals.

True 0 cases is disease eradication. We have been successful at doing that with exactly 1 virus (small pox) and it took decades of focused effort to accomplish. However, we don't seem to panic about the hundreds of cases of measles in the US each year, even with herd immunity.

Note: even if you eradicated COVID, we would likely have another coronavirus make the jump from animals to humans in the next 5-10 years.


This is why I said earlier this will never end. Hit 10k cases, then move goalposts to hit 0 cases. Then move again to have 0 cases across multiple years. Now decades. It won't end.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to cone • 3:27p, 4/19/21
AG
cone said:
Quote:
How do you combat that?
you can't

damage has been done

a not insignificant part of the population has been completely traumatized by the last year
There was an interesting write up from NYTimes that I read today, sorry can't find the link. It was discussing humans poor ability to assess risk by overemphasizing new risks and underemphasizing old known risks.
Very few people blink an eye at getting in a car even though there is a risk of dying in a car accident. But poling suggests that a segment of the population believes your risk of being hospitalized from getting COVID is 50%.

Over time, society and individuals will normalize the COVID risk. It will help if the media stops putting the scare numbers up constantly.
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Old Buffalo
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 3:33p, 4/19/21
AG
Look at air travel pre- and post- 9/11. Took almost 3 years to return to normal.

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cone
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3:36p, 4/19/21
AG
Quote:
But poling suggests that a segment of the population believes your risk of being hospitalized from getting COVID is 50%.
NYT had the data out of the NYC serology study last April

the 40% hospitalization numbers being blasted out of China last March turned out to be 4%

but it was an election year and they (NYT included) stomped on any and all good news for pretty much the entire year.

that serology study was huge - i myself was completely panicked until those numbers came in. but the significance of the study was pretty immediately lost.

so anyways, now the NYT and the Atlantic and Slate and etc etc want to pull us out of the PTSD they encouraged for a year (long past when such abject panic was "warranted"). best of luck, y'all.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to riverrataggie • 3:39p, 4/19/21
AG
riverrataggie said:
BiochemAg97 said:
Gordo14 said:
Salute The Marines said:
The goal was never 0 cases. That mindset is what's perpetuating the insanity. It was always supposed to be about hospitalizations.


It should be, as protection for the people that can't be vaccinated. I never said we should lock ourselves in our homes until we reach those numbers (which would still be on the scale of a couple thousand a day here in America by the way), but we shouldn't be satsified with a casual 70,000 people a day catching COVID in this country. Some of y'all are so ridiculous. I want us to reach true herd immunity by June and appearantly that is controversial.
Herd immunity is not zero cases. Herd immunity reduces the rate of spread (R) enough that a single case result in an out of control spread. Outbreaks may include a few individuals.

True 0 cases is disease eradication. We have been successful at doing that with exactly 1 virus (small pox) and it took decades of focused effort to accomplish. However, we don't seem to panic about the hundreds of cases of measles in the US each year, even with herd immunity.

Note: even if you eradicated COVID, we would likely have another coronavirus make the jump from animals to humans in the next 5-10 years.


This is why I said earlier this will never end. Hit 10k cases, then move goalposts to hit 0 cases. Then move again to have 0 cases across multiple years. Now decades. It won't end.
I doubt it. At some point, everyone loses interest and the government decides to focus on the next "crisis". Besides, Biden and the Dems will want to take credit for getting us out of COVID at some point before the '22 election. Hard to take credit if you are still claiming too many cases.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 5:32p, 4/19/21
AG
Old Buffalo said:
Look at air travel pre- and post- 9/11. Took almost 3 years to return to normal.

Yeah, not saying it is going to be fast. Certainly not a light switch. Eventually, people will move on.

Also, is suspect we see a faster return to normal in other parts of the world. Studies showed that US media coverage of COVID was 90% negative, even changing focus from national numbers to regional numbers so they could focus on regions with increasing COVID instead of reporting decreasing national numbers. Media elsewhere was more balanced in reporting the good and bad news.

It is going to take a whole lot of good news to counter a year of fear porn. And I don't think the American media will stick with good news for that long.


It is interesting to compare flying after 9/11, which was a combination of fear and refusal to submit to TSA. It will be interesting to compare different parts of the economy a few years down the road. Will the vaccine requirements/passports hurt or help?
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culdeus
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 6:43p, 4/19/21
AG
Old Buffalo said:
Look at air travel pre- and post- 9/11. Took almost 3 years to return to normal.



Having been in a job where I flew 1x a week in 2001 and 2002 I would take masked flights with pre check over that.

The Love tsa lines would fill the whole damn lobby. And this was before the stupid shoe bull*****

You would think we learned from that.
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Fitch
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6:46p, 4/19/21
AG
Been on many a packed flight here lately. Night and day from flying last August and October even.
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GAC06
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In reply to Fitch • 7:03p, 4/19/21
AG
Still a long way to go to get back to 2019 flying

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput#
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amercer
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 7:05p, 4/19/21
AG
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210419&instance_id=29407&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN®i_id=121922527&segment_id=55855&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F2ade44d8-d796-561b-ad3d-f07953325fd6&user_id=64338002fc175daffe9fc689cbbc747e
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amercer
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9:00p, 4/19/21
AG
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beerad12man
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10:13a, 4/20/21
AG
One study said LA might have had up to 40% natural immunity based on antibody detection. Not sure how randomized the sampling was, or if it was in dense areas or not. Now give 35-40% the vaccine, account for overlap, and you may be about 65-70% overall immunity. Yeah, it's going to happen everywhere soon.

It's another reason I believe that texas doesn't quite need the same vaccination as some other areas to keep cases down. Our 18-59 year olds probably have more immunity than anywhere in the world naturally, with Florida and maybe only a couple others equaling ours.
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beerad12man
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In reply to beerad12man • 2:26p, 4/20/21
AG
beerad12man said:
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

Antigen positivity rate at 2.65%. The lowest we've had since this began. Go to antigen tests tab.

Molecular positivity at 5.433%, the last 5 days have all been the lowest since March 12, 2020.
Hospitalizations remain steady since 4/5/21 at 2864.

Antigen positivity rate is 2.09%

Molecular positivity at 4.69%.

Both I believe are at all time lows since this began. But someone can correct me.
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Pasquale Liucci
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10:09a, 4/21/21
AG
Did SETRAC take down their COVID PowerBI? Link is dead for me and I can't find it on google.
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CowtownAg06
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In reply to Pasquale Liucci • 10:15a, 4/21/21
AG
Here you go.

They moved it and it's hard to find.
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flyingaggie12
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In reply to amercer • 5:45p, 4/22/21
AG
That PTSD shiz is real
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Old Buffalo
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11:22a, 4/23/21
AG
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PJYoung
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9:40p, 4/23/21
AG
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beerad12man
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9:47p, 4/23/21
AG
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzseOOOXEAMJdVf?format=png&name=small
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AggieFactor
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11:40p, 4/23/21
AG
Since we have been on this constant case count for the past couple months, what are we attributing the almost 20% increase in hospital and ICU admissions? Has there been a change in admittance policy?
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plain_o_llama
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4:36p, 4/24/21
Dallas County continues to look good.

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/042321-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf


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Aston94
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In reply to AggieFactor • 4:50p, 4/24/21
AG
AggieFactor said:
Since we have been on this constant case count for the past couple months, what are we attributing the almost 20% increase in hospital and ICU admissions? Has there been a change in admittance policy?
The fact that there is a large drop in deaths makes you think maybe so. Weird.
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beerad12man
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9:22a, 5/3/21
AG


The combination of more and more immunity, and likely the help of our lowest seasonal exposure to covid, at least in 2020. Things looking up and up.

Also, a common thought is that many of the 695 deaths aren't actually from May 2nd, and that daily number is a lot lower. It will be nice to know a true number, with no backlogs. So hopefully data catches up and May sees a huge drop off in deaths. This thing is running out of hosts to kill(at a higher level than normal respiratory years)
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Cepe
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In reply to beerad12man • 9:27a, 5/3/21
AG
beerad12man said:


The combination of more and more immunity, and likely the help of our lowest seasonal exposure to covid, at least in 2020. Things looking up and up.

Also, a common thought is that many of the 695 deaths aren't actually from May 2nd, and that daily number is a lot lower. It will be nice to know a true number, with no backlogs. So hopefully data catches up and May sees a huge drop off in deaths. This thing is running out of hosts to kill(at a higher level than normal respiratory years)
695 deaths and 37K in the hospital in a population of 330 million? Really?
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gougler08
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In reply to Cepe • 9:58a, 5/3/21
AG
Cepe said:
beerad12man said:


The combination of more and more immunity, and likely the help of our lowest seasonal exposure to covid, at least in 2020. Things looking up and up.

Also, a common thought is that many of the 695 deaths aren't actually from May 2nd, and that daily number is a lot lower. It will be nice to know a true number, with no backlogs. So hopefully data catches up and May sees a huge drop off in deaths. This thing is running out of hosts to kill(at a higher level than normal respiratory years)
695 deaths and 37K in the hospital in a population of 330 million? Really?
Code Red!
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beerad12man
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In reply to Cepe • 10:05a, 5/3/21
AG
Yes, with our population increasing the way it has, you will be approaching 8,000-9,000 deaths daily just by sheer math .Unless you believe humans will start living to be 200 years old. I've said for a while, the only way to truly get through this is for the media to stop covering it so much, and to stop tracking things so closely. If you track daily deaths with everything like we have for covid the rest of your life, you will go insane and cease to ever live free again.

In the middle of flu season, you might have 400-500 deaths a day as well. Maybe even more if you consider all respiratory illnesses. Say you have 40-50k deaths from the flu any given year, another 50k or so from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, etc., and the vast majority happen in a 3 month period, you may even be approaching what is worse than covid is right now during the strongest points of that.

Covid is now trending to under 8% of daily deaths, and I bet will be approaching 3-4% within a month. And even 695 may not be accurate. I tend to think a couple hundred of those deaths are from December/January/February. But that's speculative/unknown.
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Keegan99
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2:50p, 5/3/21
AG


Lockdowns kill.
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RangerRick9211
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In reply to Keegan99 • 8:33p, 5/4/21
AG
Keegan99 said:
Lockdowns kill.
Our obesity and diabetic rates are 4x and 2x over Sweden. If you scale that to our population, then yes, we we're always going to struggle more than Sweden with or without lockdowns.
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Hincemm
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11:08a, 5/5/21
AG
am i reading the daily charts on worldometers right?

we are approaching a month of US daily deaths all below 1,000. is that the first time where we've had a month straight below 1,000 since the pandy started?
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Keegan99
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3:24p, 5/12/21
AG
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Matsui
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6:48a, 5/22/21
 
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