I'd agree with the big picture timeline. Caveat is that there aren't many infections in the summer for coronaviruses anyway. It's likely peaking now/next 45 days.
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Those seem like reasonable projections to me. Hope they become reality.
Quote:
This translates to a final US COVID-19 death toll of roughly 600,000 (100,000) reported deaths, or ~300,000 additional deaths since mid-December 2020
Can someone explain the "600,00 (100,000) reported deeths" part to me?
I get the 600,000 reported death number. That seems reasonable.
I don't understand the 100,000 number.
It's + / - 100,000. Formatting error
I sure hope so.
Thanks.
Fingers crossed.
We are past the New Years surge now and the weather is warming up already in the south, we should be past the peak now
I hope
I hope
Feels like we are past the peak to me. Keep those vaccinations rolling.
Agreed.PJYoung said:
Feels like we are past the peak to me. Keep those vaccinations rolling.
Stole these from covidtrackingproject.com
For hospitalizations, US as a whole, along with every region is in decline.
Every state but 1 is improving. 28 of the 30 marked as "staying the same" are in the negative and will be in "Falling" soon
For hospitalizations, US as a whole, along with every region is in decline.
Every state but 1 is improving. 28 of the 30 marked as "staying the same" are in the negative and will be in "Falling" soon
And there it is, almost half the states in a huge decline hospitalization wise
see the 3 peaks in the daily tests mirrored in the daily new cases. Not exactly surprising that positive cases falls with # of tests. Notice the hospitalizations don't show local maximum.
But there are three local maxima in the daily deaths too. That seems odd.
But there are three local maxima in the daily deaths too. That seems odd.
Reporting dips due to holidays?
As Keegan said, likely reporting dips. You don't see the same dips in the hospitalization data.
How much of the sharp decline in positive cases in the past week is due to new stringent criteria for positive cases noted by WHO on inauguration day (not sure if CDC ever jumped on the bandwagon, and I'm not sure MSM would even report it if so).
I think zero. I don't think that has been implemented anywhere. Again, you can see the dip in hospitalizations across the country, which is an indication that the reversal is real.Tabasco said:
How much of the sharp decline in positive cases in the past week is due to new stringent criteria for positive cases noted by WHO on inauguration day (not sure if CDC ever jumped on the bandwagon, and I'm not sure MSM would even report it if so).
I'm not saying it's happening but wouldn't stricter testing also result in a drop in hospitalizations? Are hospitals still testing everyone admitted?
I don't think so. People aren't being hospitalized because they test positive, they are being put in because the effects are so bad, low O2, fevers, lung issues etc. And yes they are still testing everyone for Covid that is admitted to a hospital whether they are having a baby, a broken arm or whatever.GAC06 said:
I'm not saying it's happening but wouldn't stricter testing also result in a drop in hospitalizations? Are hospitals still testing everyone admitted?
I agree.AggieBiker said:I don't think so. People aren't being hospitalized because they test positive, they are being put in because the effects are so bad, low O2, fevers, lung issues etc. And yes they are still testing everyone for Covid that is admitted to a hospital whether they are having a baby, a broken arm or whatever.GAC06 said:
I'm not saying it's happening but wouldn't stricter testing also result in a drop in hospitalizations? Are hospitals still testing everyone admitted?
I think the degree to the drop off in reported cases is also inflated by an over-shoot in reported cases following the holidays due to reporting backlog. There is a significant dip in Christmas/New Years in new REPORTED cases, then a surge afterwards, then a drop. If you smooth that out, the apparent 33% drop in cases may be more like 10-15%
I mean if someone goes to the hospital after a car wreck and tests positive, does that go down as a covid hospitalization?
This rough sketch is what I mean about how it's possible smoother/more timely reporting could make the current drop not as aggressive as it currently seems.
State-wide Trends
Regional Trends
Trauma Service Area Hospitalizations
Regional Trends
Trauma Service Area Hospitalizations
Dallas County Summary Report
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/012821-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
Things seem to be headed in a better direction
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/012821-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
Things seem to be headed in a better direction
So you think covid is causing people to have severe car wrecks that put them in the hospital? So many that it pushes up the Covid hospitalization numbers? I suppose that's possible so maybe somebody should look into it.GAC06 said:
I mean if someone goes to the hospital after a car wreck and tests positive, does that go down as a covid hospitalization?
AggieBiker said:So you think covid is causing people to have severe car wrecks that put them in the hospital? So many that it pushes up the Covid hospitalization numbers? I suppose that's possible so maybe somebody should look into it.GAC06 said:
I mean if someone goes to the hospital after a car wreck and tests positive, does that go down as a covid hospitalization?
I'm asking if hospitals are using the less stringent testing protocols mentioned in the WHO message. If everyone at the hospital that tests positive for covid is counted as a covid hospitalization, then less testing of asymptomatic people and following the WHO guidance: ("the cut-off should be manually adjusted to ensure that specimens with high Ct values are not incorrectly assigned SARS-CoV-2 detected due to background noise.") would reduce "covid" hospitalizations.
I don't know how Covid hospitalizations are counted. I don't know if hospitals are adjusting the precision of their tests. But an adjustment could affect hospitalization numbers hypothetically.
Tabasco said:
How much of the sharp decline in positive cases in the past week is due to new stringent criteria for positive cases noted by WHO on inauguration day (not sure if CDC ever jumped on the bandwagon, and I'm not sure MSM would even report it if so).
Very little. We saw the exact same drop off from the other two peaks.
Virus gonna virus.
Latest Dallas County Summary:
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/020521-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
Trends continuing in the right direction.
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/020521-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf
Trends continuing in the right direction.