I saw videos of downtown here, and apparently many can skirt the rules by selling more food. They looked packed, so might as well open up.

This past week TABC offered a special permit bars could buy to open if they sell food. Food trucks, bag of chips, hand full of peanuts...

I still can't figure out how they get that number. If you go back 14 days, most people are over it by 14 days, active infected number should be closer to 56,000 active cases. That number is 50% higher than what you calculate from average infected in the last two weeks??

DadHammer said:

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I still can't figure out how they get that number. If you go back 14 days, most people are over it by 14 days, active infected number should be closer to 56,000 active cases. That number is 50% higher than what you calculate from average infected in the last two weeks??

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Agree...
More sensational journalism to scare the public

Key message is this thing is dying out

With a vaccine around the corner we can get back to life and maybe near normal

Better metric
So far this week average is 77/day (9/6-9/9)

Do you have a source for the data you follow now?

fav13andac1)c said:

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Do you have a source for the data you follow now?

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No can't say I do.

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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Looking at your graphs, how is that even a pandemic with the population size of Dallas in the millions?

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This is the strange math I have been kicking around in my head. I get spooked by all the Docs coming in here and talking about the relatively healthy middle aged people that die. That scares me back inside.

I then think through my own personal knowledge of the disease. There have been enough cases through my friends and family and larger network to leave the realm of anecdote and get into the world of statistically relevant sample.

I know of one person that died . . .he was a pretty morbidly obese friend of a friend working in a big East Texas Ag business.

I know four 80+ year olds that have had the disease and recovered, some with longer lasting GI issues but others who had only mild symptoms.

I know many folks of my age range who had it with a varying degree of symptoms. The two with the dry cough and respiratory issues both responded quickly to whatever they were prescribed.

I know many kids and teens who have rode it out like a mild cold.

I then read this yesterday

Quote:

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The county has now accumulated 78,205 cases of the virus since testing began in March. With 70,929 estimated recoveries being reported by the state through Monday, there are roughly 6,279 active cases in Dallas County. There have been 997 confirmed deaths attributed in the county to the virus, which, according to Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Dr. Philip Huang, is now the third leading cause of death in the county behind diseases of the heart and cancers. Since March 20, the date of the first reported COVID-19 related death in Dallas County, the county has averaged 5.5 deaths per day.

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So in a country of 2.67 Million people, active cases represent 0.2% of the population. Deaths represent 0.03% of the population.

So I want to go back outside.

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You do know it's raining outside, right?

Oh hell, go on out there anyway. It feels great.

Look at Collin county, 1.2 million people and average less than a death per day (137 deaths) which is 0.01% of the population.

Bexar county has to be one of the worst with these data dumps

• 9/20 - 2,600
• 9/13 - 1,700
• 9/7 - 0
• 8/21 - 0
• 8/2 - (-95) yes, negative 95
• 7/28 - 1,500
• 7/19 - 2,200
• 7/16 - 5,500

So is this a "pandemic?"

You are pointing at something that has been a problem since the virus found its way out of a lab in China (or whatever we will be told is the official story). And that problem is the imprecise language that has been used and abused throughout.

For instance, Pandemic is used by some to mean "extreme epidemic." Imagine the old Drudge Report with the red siren announcing the "Cat 5 Hell-Storm in the Gulf." In some academic circles focusing on Epidemiology, Pandemic just means an Epidemic that has spread geographically to multiple countries.

But then what does Epidemic mean? Some use that to mean a wildly spreading dangerous disease. The more technical definition seems to be a disease for which the number of cases are growing exponentially. That gets into the discussion of the much abused concept of R(t) or the Reproduction rate. Anything over 1.0 is one case resulting in more than one new case.

Ignoring that it is very difficult to estimate R, one thing that adds confusion is that not every situation with R(t) > 1.0 is treated the same. Most Winters, the Flu re-emerges with cases spreading like an Epidemic for a few weeks. It is sometimes referred to as a seasonal epidemic or epidemic transmission. And most years it happens across the hemisphere at the same time. So shouldn't that be a Pandemic? We don't seem to use it that way.

Anyway, I toss all that out to suggest that without a common language it is difficult to communicate.

So, using the more academic definitions one might categorize SARS-CoV2 as a virus that spawned a pandemic. But is saying that useful in assessing the danger of the virus and the resulting disease or what we should do about it?

Funny thing was, we always seemed to get several "Cat 5 Hell-Storm" headline false alarms for every really bad landfalling storm. Perhaps this can be a pandemic in one sense while a strong case can also be made to deride the wailing "Pandemic from Hell" headlines and the policies evoked in response.

YMMV, and I doubt parsing definitions makes anyone happy. :-)
I claim no expertise in Epidemiology. Others may want to present alternative ideas.

plain_o_llama said:

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So is this a "pandemic?"

For instance, Pandemic is used by some to mean "extreme epidemic." Imagine the old Drudge Report with the red siren announcing the "Cat 5 Hell-Storm in the Gulf." In some academic circles focusing on Epidemiology, Pandemic just means an Epidemic that has spread geographically to multiple countries.

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this is what frustrated me in March with the WHO insisting this wasn't a pandemic. There were already cases on every continent except Antarctica (for obvious reasons) with documented community spread in several countries, yet the WHO insisted it wasn't a pandemic until a several weeks later.

Back to the levels of the beginning of a mild flu season

... except bars still can't open

How's the state doing at "flattening the curve"? Isn't this was it was all about anyway?

Please be sure to let the UK know that.

BiochemAg97 said:

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plain_o_llama said:

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So is this a "pandemic?"

For instance, Pandemic is used by some to mean "extreme epidemic." Imagine the old Drudge Report with the red siren announcing the "Cat 5 Hell-Storm in the Gulf." In some academic circles focusing on Epidemiology, Pandemic just means an Epidemic that has spread geographically to multiple countries.

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this is what frustrated me in March with the WHO insisting this wasn't a pandemic. There were already cases on every continent except Antarctica (for obvious reasons) with documented community spread in several countries, yet the WHO insisted it wasn't a pandemic until a several weeks later.

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There are reasons they did this. There were disaster bonds tied to the declaration