Daily Charts

607,461 Views | 2786 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Fitch
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AG
Obligatory note: fatalities curves within the last 2-3 weeks are not representative of the actual number as the data is being constantly revised.














Houston Area





Testing vs. Positivity Rate


DadHammer
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AG
Nicely done Fitch.

Things are definitely getting better fast.
Austin Ag
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These charts come out showing death rates almost zero and what does the Travis County/City of Austin do? They extend the "Stay Home, Mask and Otherwise Be Safe Order" for four more months!!

Charpie
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I can tell you that some school officials think no
beerad12man
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Masks are one thing, whether they work enough to make it worth it or not, whatever. Keeping 6 feet when possible? Okay, nice recommendations.

Those in charge still screaming for people to stay at home are insane to me. The only people they should recommend staying home to are the elderly, and/or those that know they are high risk.
Fenrir
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Why does the fatalities by gender chart not add up to 100%?

beerad12man
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Because there are a few that didn't check off either male or female.
JP_Losman
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Given everything we know to this point, what is the estimate for total infected in Texas as a percentage?

Keegan99
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https://covid19-projections.com/us-tx

20.3%
aginlakeway
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AG
Keegan99 said:

https://covid19-projections.com/us-tx

20.3%

So 20% of Texans have covid?
Complete Idiot
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Austin Ag said:

These charts come out showing death rates almost zero and what does the Travis County/City of Austin do? They extend the "Stay Home, Mask and Otherwise Be Safe Order" for four more months!!


While I don't agree with the stay at home extension, applying to the entire population, the death rate is not almost zero because as explain many times the death totals tend to lag the actual death date by days/weeks. But as you probably agree, they aren't using that number for their extension decisions anyway, so even if they do go to zero it probably wont change anything.
Complete Idiot
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aginlakeway said:

Keegan99 said:

https://covid19-projections.com/us-tx

20.3%

So 20% of Texans have covid?

Had had, historically, not actively have it at this time. It's a estimate/model that leads to the 20.3% number.
Keegan99
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That's cumulative to date, so it's "have" and "have had".
beerad12man
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I continue to cross my fingers that this means we are over the hump for good. Some say masks and social distancing help too. Of course that might be the case. But our R rating seems so low right now that, at the very least, we can begin to relax some of these mitigation strategies to see.

After all, from the start, the goal was to not overwhelm the hospitals. So for me, I want Texans to live as close to normal as possible without doing that.
Keegan99
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Not a formal analysis, but Louisiana hints that once you're done with COVID, you're done.



DadHammer
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Complete Idiot
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I've remained confused about the seasonality and latitudes connection to outbreaks. Hope-Simpson noted Influenza had a winter seasonality and suggested it was due to Vitamin D deficiencies. People have also tied vitamin D deficiencies to Covid 19. Other coronaviruses have a winter seasonality. Yet people said the southern/Texas outbreak in June/July made sense.
Ag$08
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I would venture a guess that people are more vitamin D deficient in the Southern US summer today than they were in the past. A lot of people spend summer indoors and get out more in the fall/winter.
pocketrockets06
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Why are we using deaths as a measure of COVID 19 HIT? HIT is not about dying from the virus but about whether you catch it. If we are successfully keeping the virus out of old folks homes, the virus can still propagate readily across younger populations. Jefferson Parish added 4400 new cases in July which is roughly the amount it added in March and early April in the first peak. Yes we caught a higher percentage of cases in the second peak but the big change is how much younger the cases skewed and the changes in case management, not hitting HIT
Keegan99
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You don't know how much younger the cases skewed. Younger populations weren't getting tested in March and April.

If one believes the theory that Mardi Gras was the driver, then it is more than a little implausible that there weren't a large number of young people infected in that time frame.
pocketrockets06
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Per the Louisana Department of Health, statewide the 18-29 cohort had ~7x as many cases in the second wave as it did the first. Now, we know the first wave was missing a lot of people in testing so maybe its only 2-3X but still the "measured" demographics skewed much younger in the second wave.



In the New Orleans area specifically, there were many fewer cases in the 60+ age brackets in the second wave. The 18-29 peak was about the same. The nursing homes mostly kept the second wave out and the cases/deaths in the most vulnerable dropped.


Keegan99
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What is your basis for the 2-3x multiplier?
plain_o_llama
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For anyone interested:

Hope-Simpson pointed out several anomalies related to the seasonality of influenza. He proposed that the simple model of a continual process of "sick to well" transmission of the virus in a continuing chain can't explain these inconsistencies. He believed that there was some unappreciated or unknown aspect to the Sun/Solar radiation/Seasonal variation that was key to understanding this.


This article written by some Vitamin D proponents in 2008 provides a review of his ideas and speculates that Vitamin D might answer a lot of the questions Hope-Simpson raised. Later work seems to be a little mixed as to the efficacy of Vitamin D in relation to Influenza and the Flu, however these Influenza anomalies do seem noteworthy.

On the epidemiology of influenza
https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-5-29

They summarize Simpson's "7 conundrums" as


1. Why is influenza both seasonal and ubiquitous and where is the virus between epidemics?

2. Why are the epidemics so explosive?

3. Why do epidemics end so abruptly?

4. What explains the frequent coincidental timing of epidemics in countries of similar latitudes?

5. Why is the serial interval obscure?

6. Why is the secondary attack rate so low?

7. Why did epidemics in previous ages spread so rapidly, despite the lack of modern transport?

and they add an 8th and 9th that may be germane to Covid discussions

An eighth conundrum one not addressed by Hope-Simpson is the surprising percentage of seronegative volunteers who either escape infection or develop only minor illness after being experimentally inoculated with a novel influenza virus.

.....

A ninth conundrum evident only recently is that epidemiological studies question vaccine effectiveness, contrary to randomized controlled trials, which show vaccines to be effective. For example, influenza mortality and hospitalization rates for older Americans significantly increased in the 80's and 90's, during the same time that influenza vaccination rates for elderly Americans dramatically increased [7, 8].

Even when aging of the population is accounted for, death rates of the most immunized age group did not decline [9]. Rizzo et al studying Italian elderly, concluded, "We found no evidence of reduction in influenza-related mortality in the last 15 years, despite the concomitant increase of influenza vaccination coverage from ~10% to ~60%" [10]. Given that influenza vaccinations increase adaptive immunity, why don't epidemiological studies show increasing vaccination rates are translating into decreasing illness?

Keegan99
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AG
Good stuff. Thank you!
AgsMyDude
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BiochemAg97
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Austin Ag said:

These charts come out showing death rates almost zero and what does the Travis County/City of Austin do? They extend the "Stay Home, Mask and Otherwise Be Safe Order" for four more months!!


They defined their phases of lockdown in terms of 7 day rolling average of new hospitalizations. Phase 3 from 20-40, phase 4 above 40. The metric dropped below 40 about 2 weeks ago and is currently below 30, yet still in phase 4.

It will be interesting to see if they try to hold onto phase 4 lockdown when it gets down to phase 2 levels, or if that will finally trigger changing to phase 3.
BiochemAg97
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beerad12man said:

Because there are a few that didn't check off either male or female.
Then there should be an "other" or "not stated" Category.
BiochemAg97
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aginlakeway said:

Keegan99 said:

https://covid19-projections.com/us-tx

20.3%

So 20% of Texans have covid?

COVID19 is the disease. SARS-CoV2 is the virus. 20% have had the virus, but technically a lot never got COVID. You don't really have a disease if you are asymptomatic.
BiochemAg97
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plain_o_llama said:

For anyone interested:

Hope-Simpson pointed out several anomalies related to the seasonality of influenza. He proposed that the simple model of a continual process of "sick to well" transmission of the virus in a continuing chain can't explain these inconsistencies. He believed that there was some unappreciated or unknown aspect to the Sun/Solar radiation/Seasonal variation that was key to understanding this.


This article written by some Vitamin D proponents in 2008 provides a review of his ideas and speculates that Vitamin D might answer a lot of the questions Hope-Simpson raised. Later work seems to be a little mixed as to the efficacy of Vitamin D in relation to Influenza and the Flu, however these Influenza anomalies do seem noteworthy.

On the epidemiology of influenza
https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-5-29

They summarize Simpson's "7 conundrums" as


1. Why is influenza both seasonal and ubiquitous and where is the virus between epidemics?

2. Why are the epidemics so explosive?

3. Why do epidemics end so abruptly?

4. What explains the frequent coincidental timing of epidemics in countries of similar latitudes?

5. Why is the serial interval obscure?

6. Why is the secondary attack rate so low?

7. Why did epidemics in previous ages spread so rapidly, despite the lack of modern transport?

and they add an 8th and 9th that may be germane to Covid discussions

An eighth conundrum one not addressed by Hope-Simpson is the surprising percentage of seronegative volunteers who either escape infection or develop only minor illness after being experimentally inoculated with a novel influenza virus.

.....

A ninth conundrum evident only recently is that epidemiological studies question vaccine effectiveness, contrary to randomized controlled trials, which show vaccines to be effective. For example, influenza mortality and hospitalization rates for older Americans significantly increased in the 80's and 90's, during the same time that influenza vaccination rates for elderly Americans dramatically increased [7, 8].

Even when aging of the population is accounted for, death rates of the most immunized age group did not decline [9]. Rizzo et al studying Italian elderly, concluded, "We found no evidence of reduction in influenza-related mortality in the last 15 years, despite the concomitant increase of influenza vaccination coverage from ~10% to ~60%" [10]. Given that influenza vaccinations increase adaptive immunity, why don't epidemiological studies show increasing vaccination rates are translating into decreasing illness?


On the last point, maybe because guessing which strains will be a problem 8 months down the road has a low probability of success.
Austin Ag
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AG

[Wrong forum. We want the political comments off this forum. - Staff]
rodger.
RandyAg98
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KlinkerAg11
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So, the average age of death is lower than the average age of dying from covid?

I'm looking at that right, correct?
RandyAg98
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Yep. Median age for COVID deaths is 1.5 years older than Median age of death from everything else.
amercer
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Median age of death for a population is an interesting thing to calculate because it's got to be a lagging indicator.

My great grandmother was born in 1901 when the life expectancy for women in the US was 49 years.

She died in 1995 when the life expectancy was 75.6 years.

I think we've reached a plateau as most of the possible gains around sanitation and safety have been achieved, but I would expect for kids born in 2020 that they should live on average to be 90.
pocketrockets06
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This shouldn't surprise anyone but it's the wrong way to frame the question. Of course the median age will be higher given what we know about the IFR for kids and young adults. Better way to frame it is what would be the expected age of death for a given age cohort without COVID 19. For an 18 year old, it's essentially no change. For a 55 year old, expected age of death might drop a few years. More for a 75 year old.
 
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