DadHammer said:
I am not following your point here. Why do you not think it's 20-30 %? Most data we have seen here suggests that range. It doesn't mean no infections. The numbers in Houston aren't even high enough to be considered a pandemic anymore are they? We are already down to 33% of the peak rate of hospitalizations. There have been no reinfections that I have seen to date. If there are any they are tiny to ignorable numbers so far. Number of infections mean nothing if the hospitalizations falling substantially. Just look at NY's numbers, they have obviously passed herd immunity long ago.
There are a few points here...
-The question isn't why I think herd immunity for this virus is not 10%-20%-30%, that would be great(!), but rather why should that be the case against established epidemiology. A disgruntled Nobel laureate mathematician frankly means not a lot - everyone has an opinion and an ******* and they're worth the same (including this post). As more studies and data comes in we may discover something new that changes science in the field, but to date you're talking about a handful of studies trying to make sense of something that is a big unknown. Still, we can hope and there is some interesting data for cause for hope just while acknowledging "hope" isn't a great planning strategy.
-This is a message board with a dozen or so doctors posting and bunch of us trying to figure it out. More people are here for understanding and comfort than rigorous scientific critique.
-Houston hospitalizations going down is great news! It's what we want and hope to have happen. By no means is it by accident - the trends we see today are a result of personal and general public measures taken 4, 5, and 6 weeks ago. Hypothetically, should those measures instantly cease and all of greater Houston go back to life as usual pre-COVID then the same pattern and ICU overflow we saw in June/July would happen... On a positive note, I think we have all observed that people have changed and simple control measures seem to be pretty much universal - I put very low odds on repeating the "Memorial Day Effect" provided that.
-NYC is still dramatically changed from normal life. I talk to family and friends who live in Manhattan about it weekly. Arguably those measures and their huge multi-week unmitigated spread in March are keeping the R(t) in check. It isn't "real" herd immunity, though I definitely suspect that broader population immunity is starting to have an effect - - it's policy action and widespread social adhesion to mitigation measures that are driving current trends. If they back off the simple personal responsibility stuff, they would see a surge in new cases and probably faster and worse just given the reality of density and public transit there.
As an aside, a little heads up for y'all travel bugs - look at flights to NYC between now and Thanksgiving. I've booked 6 round trip weekends for less than $50/ea. Best so far is $26 round trip to Newark on United. Don't even need to jack around with Spirit Airlines for that.