This might need to be required reading in order to post on this board.agforlife97 said:
Thought this was a good article:
https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/7/27/lockdownlunacythree
This might need to be required reading in order to post on this board.agforlife97 said:
Thought this was a good article:
https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/7/27/lockdownlunacythree
agforlife97 said:
Thought this was a good article:
https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/7/27/lockdownlunacythree
Did you happen to look up who JB Handley is and what he believes? He created an organization that leads the "vaccines cause autism" movement, organization President Jenny McCarthy, and believes chelation can reverse autism. I understand none of that may invalidate the article, the Covid pandemic information may all be perfectly fine and data supported, but I was thinking about sharing that article with some friends who seem overly fearful of the virus (in my opinion). I am very glad I first googled who he was because one of those friends has an autistic sister and if I had shared this with him I may never have heard from him again.Keegan99 said:
Really solid. Summarizes a lot of my thoughts nicely, including bewilderment at the collective panic at a very low risk event, especially among the demographics least at risk. Thank you.
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I don't see how the change in reporting is continuing to produce 300+ days or how it's not still comparable to the daily 'live-reporting' we had prior to a few days ago that was hanging around 200/day.
I think I just needed coffee this AM. So they wiped the slate clean, took all the death certs they have/had (6500ish) and filled in the chart with date of death from the certs. Now, the 300 received yesterday, with dates spread out over the last few weeks, possibly months, are being filled in on the graph.Keegan99 said:Quote:
I don't see how the change in reporting is continuing to produce 300+ days or how it's not still comparable to the daily 'live-reporting' we had prior to a few days ago that was hanging around 200/day.
It has to do with filling out the curve and adding recent deaths that weren't being added before. Previously, a daily report might have had mostly days -10 to -16 (or later). Now it has mostly days -3 to -14, and (so far) is heavily weighted to days -3 to -10. That's going to result in the next week or so being inflated.
The peak day-of-death is still 175, and it will probably end up being in the neighborhood of 200.
Yes, that gave me some pause. But I think he's more or less totally correct in the covid article. They may be motivated to feel this way because they don't want a covid vaccine to be mandated, but that doesn't mean they are wrong.Keegan99 said:
Yikes. Not a good look if that's the author's background.
Help me with the logic of that one.agforlife97 said:Yes, that gave me some pause. But I think he's more or less totally correct in the covid article. They may be motivated to feel this way because they don't want a covid vaccine to be mandated, but that doesn't mean they are wrong.Keegan99 said:
Yikes. Not a good look if that's the author's background.
Basically, once excess deaths go back to the historical average for the country, the pandemic is over. We're rapidly reaching that point.
The excess death vs. historical normal death graph only shows one wave at this point. What you suggest is possible, though there seems to be a growing consensus that herd immunity happens at 10-20%, and that when people get CV-19 a second time it's unlikely to result in very many hospitalizations or deaths. This is from a national perspective though, which may be somewhat misleading. Cities that have not yet experienced a CV-19 wave will probably eventually have one. So in that sense locking down only postpones it.Fitch said:Help me with the logic of that one.agforlife97 said:Yes, that gave me some pause. But I think he's more or less totally correct in the covid article. They may be motivated to feel this way because they don't want a covid vaccine to be mandated, but that doesn't mean they are wrong.Keegan99 said:
Yikes. Not a good look if that's the author's background.
Basically, once excess deaths go back to the historical average for the country, the pandemic is over. We're rapidly reaching that point.
The excess deaths is a derivative of total cases. Fatalities falling back to normal historical rates would be indicative the pandemic is either over, meaning little to no future cases are anticipated, or the new case growth has decreased for long enough to eventually manifest in fatalities falling back to baseline.
If the virus remains in play with less that a critical mass of the population immune to it, then isn't it fairer to say the wave is over, rather than the pandemic?
This is only true if our current preventive measures are doing absolutely nothing to prevent the spread.agforlife97 said:
Basically, once excess deaths go back to the historical average for the country, the pandemic is over.
If there are no longer excess deaths, then it doesn't really matter if the virus is out there spreading still (it almost certainly will be, just like other coronaviruses that cause colds). Basically if there are no excess deaths, then people dying of CV-19 would have died of something else anyway (or maybe did die of something else).deadbq03 said:This is only true if our current preventive measures are doing absolutely nothing to prevent the spread.agforlife97 said:
Basically, once excess deaths go back to the historical average for the country, the pandemic is over.
If our measures do prevent the spread (and I'd like to think that most reasonable people would acknowledge this is true, even if they don't think it's necessary), then the vaccine has to provide that same level of protection or else we'll see an uptick in cases if we lessen our preventive measures. That's the whole goal of the vaccine - to allow us to get back to normal faster.
The pandemic isn't over until the transmission rate without preventive measures (which we honestly don't really know) is lower than the percentage of the population that doesn't have immunity, either from vaccine or exposure.
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The pandemic isn't over until the transmission rate without preventive measures (which we honestly don't really know) is lower than the percentage of the population that doesn't have immunity, either from vaccine or exposure.
No, if Covid becomes more transmissible because precautionary methods go away, then cases will go up, hospitalizations go up (and that's really what the decision makers care about), and deaths will follow. We've literally just watched this happen in June/July in Texas.agforlife97 said:If there are no longer excess deaths, then it doesn't really matter if the virus is out there spreading still (it almost certainly will be, just like other coronaviruses that cause colds). Basically if there are no excess deaths, then people dying of CV-19 would have died of something else anyway (or maybe did die of something else).deadbq03 said:This is only true if our current preventive measures are doing absolutely nothing to prevent the spread.agforlife97 said:
Basically, once excess deaths go back to the historical average for the country, the pandemic is over.
If our measures do prevent the spread (and I'd like to think that most reasonable people would acknowledge this is true, even if they don't think it's necessary), then the vaccine has to provide that same level of protection or else we'll see an uptick in cases if we lessen our preventive measures. That's the whole goal of the vaccine - to allow us to get back to normal faster.
The pandemic isn't over until the transmission rate without preventive measures (which we honestly don't really know) is lower than the percentage of the population that doesn't have immunity, either from vaccine or exposure.
Your second sentence leads me to believe you misinterpreted what I said. It doesn't matter how someone gets immunity as long as they have it.Keegan99 said:Quote:
The pandemic isn't over until the transmission rate without preventive measures (which we honestly don't really know) is lower than the percentage of the population that doesn't have immunity, either from vaccine or exposure.
This is incorrect.
The immunity percentage from exposure need not be identical to the immunity percentage from vaccine, due to the heterogeneous social graph.
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If the natural, unprotected transmission rate of a certain population is 2 (just picking an even number for easy math), then that would mean half the population needs immunity in order to get the rate below 1 again.
deadbq03 said:No, if Covid becomes more transmissible because precautionary methods go away, then cases will go up, hospitalizations go up (and that's really what the decision makers care about), and deaths will follow. We've literally just watched this happen in June/July in Texas.agforlife97 said:If there are no longer excess deaths, then it doesn't really matter if the virus is out there spreading still (it almost certainly will be, just like other coronaviruses that cause colds). Basically if there are no excess deaths, then people dying of CV-19 would have died of something else anyway (or maybe did die of something else).deadbq03 said:This is only true if our current preventive measures are doing absolutely nothing to prevent the spread.agforlife97 said:
Basically, once excess deaths go back to the historical average for the country, the pandemic is over.
If our measures do prevent the spread (and I'd like to think that most reasonable people would acknowledge this is true, even if they don't think it's necessary), then the vaccine has to provide that same level of protection or else we'll see an uptick in cases if we lessen our preventive measures. That's the whole goal of the vaccine - to allow us to get back to normal faster.
The pandemic isn't over until the transmission rate without preventive measures (which we honestly don't really know) is lower than the percentage of the population that doesn't have immunity, either from vaccine or exposure.
I agree completely. And I'll also agree with the general premise that the folks who are catching the disease and therefore getting immunity are generally the folks who are more highly connected; therefore the burnout is less.Keegan99 said:Quote:
If the natural, unprotected transmission rate of a certain population is 2 (just picking an even number for easy math), then that would mean half the population needs immunity in order to get the rate below 1 again.
Again, this is not true, because the graph is not homogeneous.
Half the people could have immunity, but if they're lightly connected nodes, then transmission will continue.
Half the people could have immunity, but if they're heavily connected nodes, then transmission will plummet.
I can only speak for my family, where my parents and inlaws and even my wife (auto-immune disease) are all in high risk groups... they all placed themselves at far more risk in March when we didn't know anything about this then they did in June when things started ramping up.DadHammer said:deadbq03 said:No, if Covid becomes more transmissible because precautionary methods go away, then cases will go up, hospitalizations go up (and that's really what the decision makers care about), and deaths will follow. We've literally just watched this happen in June/July in Texas.agforlife97 said:If there are no longer excess deaths, then it doesn't really matter if the virus is out there spreading still (it almost certainly will be, just like other coronaviruses that cause colds). Basically if there are no excess deaths, then people dying of CV-19 would have died of something else anyway (or maybe did die of something else).deadbq03 said:This is only true if our current preventive measures are doing absolutely nothing to prevent the spread.agforlife97 said:
Basically, once excess deaths go back to the historical average for the country, the pandemic is over.
If our measures do prevent the spread (and I'd like to think that most reasonable people would acknowledge this is true, even if they don't think it's necessary), then the vaccine has to provide that same level of protection or else we'll see an uptick in cases if we lessen our preventive measures. That's the whole goal of the vaccine - to allow us to get back to normal faster.
The pandemic isn't over until the transmission rate without preventive measures (which we honestly don't really know) is lower than the percentage of the population that doesn't have immunity, either from vaccine or exposure.
Not really. The most susceptible people will be included in the initial death wave. Texas didn't have a big wave start until June.
Preventive measures can only do so much. The virus will burn through the community and be mostly gone from Houston, just like everywhere, else it has hit in a month or two from now. Daily cases and hospitalizations are already falling significantly. Society will only stay holed up for so long and I believe most have had enough of that now and are prepared to just go on with life whether covid is there or not. That's life on earth and always has been.
Well, until next year. If this becomes a seasonal endemic thing, which is likely, then we have some regular cycles like the flu to look forward to without a vaccine (even with a vaccine if people don't get it).agforlife97 said:Yes, that gave me some pause. But I think he's more or less totally correct in the covid article. They may be motivated to feel this way because they don't want a covid vaccine to be mandated, but that doesn't mean they are wrong.Keegan99 said:
Yikes. Not a good look if that's the author's background.
Basically, once excess deaths go back to the historical average for the country, the pandemic is over. We're rapidly reaching that point.