Did they just add back in the 4000 cases the state removed because SA listed them as confirmed but they were really probable?AgsMyDude said:
shoutout to Bexar county for dumping 5,501 backlogged cases yesterday
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/16/bexar-county-reports-thousands-of-backlogged-covid-19-cases-601-new-cases/
Quote:
SAN ANTONIO (KTSA News) San Antonio Metro Health reported 5,501 additional COVID-19 cases in Bexar County at Thursday, but only 691 were from the previous 24 hours. The rest of the new cases were the result of a backlog in getting results from the State.
Dr. Colleen Bridger, assistant city manager and interim director of Metro Health attributes the problem to complications with a new process that involves testing labs sending results to the State of Texas, which then sends them to Metro Health.
"We have worked out the kinks in the reporting process," said Bridger. "The important thing to note is that the backlog did not affect patient notification. All of the patients who tested positive were notified by the lab within three or four days, so this backlog did not affect patients learning their test results."
With the 5,501 additional cases, Bexar County now has 27,047 total cases of COVID-19 since the pandemic began in March.
At the request of the Texas Department of State Health Services, Metro Health has begun to report confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases separately. Of the overall total, 3,867 are probable. Those are positive test results from Antigen tests, which are considered "probable," as opposed to positive test results from PCR tests, which are considered "confirmed." The CDC includes both in its reporting of COVID-19 cases, but the State does not. This week, the State removed more than 3,400 cases reported by San Antonio Metro Health from its COVID-19 tally because it does not report probable cases.
"Probable cases do not mean 'maybe' cases of COVID-19. Antigen tests are FDA approved, and positive tests are highly accurate," said Bridger.
Mayor Ron Nirenberg told reporters at Thursday's briefing that those people have COVID-19 and they should be counted.
"If you have tested positive in the city of San Antonio through an antigen test or a PCR test, you have COVID. You should be counted," Nirenberg said.
Some people accuse city officials of trying to inflate the numbers by reporting the probable cases, but Nirenberg thinks it's the other way around.
"The fact that we have some people at the state and federal level who are questioning whether or not we should count that test (antigen) makes it seem like some people at the state and federal level are trying to suppress just how bad this COVID pandemic is," the mayor said.
BiochemAg97 said:
Some of the increased positivity in testing may be from less testing. If they continue to test as many of the most likely to have it (symptoms) and test less of the "I saw someone cough so I need to be tested" you miss some of the negatives your would have had.
I see the testing numbers go do as the positivity goes up.
Would be good to know why the testing went down.
Still want to see it go down more and not at all dismissing the positivity rate increasing just because tests went down.
Going to be really hard to keep people from seeing older relatives during the holidays.cone said:
and just think: Labor Day is around the corner
this won't ever stop
Yes it will. It will run its course, just like viruses do. Just like every previous pandemic has done.cone said:
and just think: Labor Day is around the corner
this won't ever stop
Bluecat_Aggie94 said:Yes it will. It will run its course, just like viruses do. Just like every previous pandemic has done.cone said:
and just think: Labor Day is around the corner
this won't ever stop
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Cyp0111 said:
You mean the one that was more than 100 years ago and previous ones that did not have near the level of global interconnects.
DadHammer said:
You know , all you have to do is look at the charts for Europe and you will see it pretty much has ended.
Quote:
After shut downs, contact tracing & isolation, mask wearing etc.
I'd like to buy all that - the estimates of actual positives calculated from confirmed positives, it's peaking at 10%, the burnout is 20% - I really would. And it may be close to accurate. But with mask orders, bars closing again, people not back to work or school, probably 30% of people who have almost made it impossible for themselves to get any illness because they never go anywhere - it's hard to point to any one thing when a peak or decline happens. Someone else could make time since the July 4th holiday, or time since mask order, or time since bars closing the cause by saying "see, it's 2 weeks later" and it would be hard to refute since these are guesses.Keegan99 said:
Travis County Population - 1.3 Million
Travis County Detected Infections - 17k (~1.3% of population)
Harris County Population - 4.7 Million
Harris County Detected Infections - 57k (~1.2% of population)
Both are peaking when a little more than 1% of their population has a detected infection.
This projects to somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% of the population actually being infected. Which is right about where one would expect a peak for burnout at about 20% of the population.
The numbers from every region world-wide over the last 7 months seem to really support the 20% threshold for essentially extinguishing this pathogen.Complete Idiot said:I'd like to buy all that - the estimates of actual positives calculated from confirmed positives, it's peaking at 10%, the burnout is 20% - I really would. And it may be close to accurate. But with mask orders, bars closing again, people not back to work or school, probably 30% of people who have almost made it impossible for themselves to get any illness because they never go anywhere - it's hard to point to any one thing when a peak or decline happens. Someone else could make time since the July 4th holiday, or time since mask order, or time since bars closing the cause by saying "see, it's 2 weeks later" and it would be hard to refute since these are guesses.Keegan99 said:
Travis County Population - 1.3 Million
Travis County Detected Infections - 17k (~1.3% of population)
Harris County Population - 4.7 Million
Harris County Detected Infections - 57k (~1.2% of population)
Both are peaking when a little more than 1% of their population has a detected infection.
This projects to somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% of the population actually being infected. Which is right about where one would expect a peak for burnout at about 20% of the population.
If we hadn't changed behavior at all and watched the rise, peak, and decline in fully opened/unregulated societies that would seem more clear cut to me. Hard to explain low and flat rates in TX march to June, then the big rise after some relaxing of rules and people getting tired of getting cooped up, then a flattening after some rules reimplemented as solely due to the virus's r0 and burnout rates.
I say all that when I secretly want to believe the 20% thing. I've also guesstimated the actual cases as maybe 10x confirmed. But my fear is it's wishful thinking.
KidDoc said:The numbers from every region world-wide over the last 7 months seem to really support the 20% threshold for essentially extinguishing this pathogen.Complete Idiot said:I'd like to buy all that - the estimates of actual positives calculated from confirmed positives, it's peaking at 10%, the burnout is 20% - I really would. And it may be close to accurate. But with mask orders, bars closing again, people not back to work or school, probably 30% of people who have almost made it impossible for themselves to get any illness because they never go anywhere - it's hard to point to any one thing when a peak or decline happens. Someone else could make time since the July 4th holiday, or time since mask order, or time since bars closing the cause by saying "see, it's 2 weeks later" and it would be hard to refute since these are guesses.Keegan99 said:
Travis County Population - 1.3 Million
Travis County Detected Infections - 17k (~1.3% of population)
Harris County Population - 4.7 Million
Harris County Detected Infections - 57k (~1.2% of population)
Both are peaking when a little more than 1% of their population has a detected infection.
This projects to somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% of the population actually being infected. Which is right about where one would expect a peak for burnout at about 20% of the population.
If we hadn't changed behavior at all and watched the rise, peak, and decline in fully opened/unregulated societies that would seem more clear cut to me. Hard to explain low and flat rates in TX march to June, then the big rise after some relaxing of rules and people getting tired of getting cooped up, then a flattening after some rules reimplemented as solely due to the virus's r0 and burnout rates.
I say all that when I secretly want to believe the 20% thing. I've also guesstimated the actual cases as maybe 10x confirmed. But my fear is it's wishful thinking.
I mean, I agree - I first thought that after that NYC antibody test came out showing ~20% of those studied had antibodies and their new case rate had dramatically dropped off already. But I also fear we aren't studying a system with only one variable - the virus - introduced. Lots of behavorial and societal changes. If masks don't help at all, and if you can get it easily even if staying home all the time, then my concerns are invalid and the virus "will do what it's gonna do". I'm probably just protecting myself a bit because some thoughts I had back in March and April didn't prove out and things seemed to get worse, not better. So I'm worried 20% is wishful thinking - and with Texas sitting at estimated 10% having been infected (confirmedX10/tx population) I want to think we're coming out of this and my kids can attend school at the earliest possible date.
Why is Asia so different? Never really established, they got a hold of it early enough where man did have some control? It's a weird anomaly to me.Keegan99 said:
There's a seasonality and latitude component. Los Angeles, Phoenix, Houston, Jacksonville. All on I-10.
All with remarkably concurrent curves.
While not fully understood, the effect of latitude on seasonality of viruses was observed by Hope-Simpson decades ago.
The singular conceit through all of this is the belief that mankind has some great control. I do believe we can make it worse (see: NY and NJ) and perhaps slow it a bit, but we can't really shut it down once it's established in a community. The virus is going to do its thing.
