BiochemAg97 said:
74Ag1 said:
Keegan99 said:
Sq 17 said:
Burnout rate seems to be real and Takes place at a 20% infection rate
My WAG is the burn out happens because the local population gets very serious about mitigation and not some kind of herd immunity affect.
Hopeing herd immunity/burnout rate kicks in at 20%
This would be very unlikely.
It has occurred in Europe regardless of public policy prescriptions and societal behaviors.
I would suggest checking in on Michael Levitt's Twitter feed.
Thanks don't twitter.
So it burned out over time without policy prescriptions? (like social distance, masks, etc)
The data suggest the duration of the peak is independent of control methods.
The problem with most of the US right now is we locked down and never allowed the virus to run it's course. We successfully flattened the curve and the result (as everyone knew from the beginning) was to shift the pick from then until later. There is value in that (more knowledge, better treatment), but somehow along the way we forgot what flattening the curve really meant.
Even those fanciful graphs from the British guy that said we would have a crazy number of deaths showed and that it would save lives if we locked down and flattened the curve showed the return in a second wave at the end of lockdown. Unfortunately, they only graphed out to the beginning of that second upward curve and cut off the actually peak that would have occurred later. Convenient for the politicians wanting to shut the world down to hide the fact that the deaths were just delayed and not prevented.
Very good summary I think. The intent to flatten the curve was real and very good policy IMO. And we did it. But I don't think anybody expected the curve not to spike when things opened back up. The question is how much and how fast did it go up and did we need to flatten it again. With the numbers, the answer is yes.
But each time we open up the spike should be less and less and should be managed that way IMO.
The problem is so many leaders try to outhink the next person and it just spirals and people tune them out.
The country was quarantined because the people agreed, not because some politician mandated something. If we need to do it again people need to be convinced to do it. otherwise, people will just ignore it IMO.