Daily Charts

609,466 Views | 2786 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Complete Idiot
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In reply to Keegan99 • 5:15p, 7/5/20
What action does that lead to?

Can you explain the tweet you shared, per capita typically means per person, do you know what number of people he used when he says "cases per capita"? Per 1k? 100k? And the difference , which only started in last two weeks per the tweet while you mention Mexico has rising death counts over last two months, is, what, 28 vs 20 "per capita"? Are you guessing at why this small difference exists?
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Keegan99
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 5:26p, 7/5/20
AG
It's not a small difference. See this post.

https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3099817/replies/56886025

As for policy options to address the situation at the border throughout Texas, Arizona, and California, this is the chart thread. If that's of interest, maybe start a thread?

Per capita, you can easily reverse engineer that from county populations and the DSHS spreadsheet, but the denominator is largely irrelevant when viewing rates of change.
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SATX_BQ98
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 5:26p, 7/5/20
AG
Have a friend that sells respiratory drugs in STX. Says that what his docs are telling him, is that the border is getting hit hard due to the prevalence of diabetes comorbidity in that population. Said that if you get covid19 and you have diabetes more than any other comorbidity, you will have major problems. Said the RGV is gonna get pounded by this. Rest of the state won't have major problems.
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corleoneAg99
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In reply to Keegan99 • 5:30p, 7/5/20
AG
Keegan99 said:




Really appreciate this kind of information being shared..it adds some much needed context to the scope of the issue in TX beyond just growth in total number of cases.


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Complete Idiot
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In reply to Keegan99 • 6:26p, 7/5/20
Keegan99 said:
It's not a small difference. See this post.

In the tweet you shared from Matt Malkus detailing the difference, comparing border and non border counties, in new cases "per capita" - what is the difference shown on the chart?
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PJYoung
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6:48p, 7/5/20
AG
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cone
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In reply to PJYoung • 6:56p, 7/5/20
AG
so is +20% prevalence
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corleoneAg99
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7:04p, 7/5/20
AG
Aren't NYs current testing results at least decently tied to mismanaging the virus so badly they lead the country in Covid deaths by a mile during the first wave?

Hopefully not a strategy other states are going to follow at all.
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Incorrect, sir!
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In reply to corleoneAg99 • 8:40p, 7/5/20
corleoneAg99 said:
Aren't NYs current testing results at least decently tied to mismanaging the virus so badly they lead the country in Covid deaths by a mile during the first wave?

Hopefully not a strategy other states are going to follow at all.


The other states has the foresight of NY's experience with the first major U.S. outbreak of a novel virus. And yet, here we are...
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corleoneAg99
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In reply to Incorrect, sir! • 8:44p, 7/5/20
AG
Incorrect, sir! said:
corleoneAg99 said:
Aren't NYs current testing results at least decently tied to mismanaging the virus so badly they lead the country in Covid deaths by a mile during the first wave?

Hopefully not a strategy other states are going to follow at all.


The other states has the foresight of NY's experience with the first major U.S. outbreak of a novel virus. And yet, here we are...


Depends on what you're looking at right? If you're looking at deaths I'd say every other state in the country learned from NYCs disaster quite well.
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DTP02
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In reply to Incorrect, sir! • 8:52p, 7/5/20
AG
Incorrect, sir! said:
corleoneAg99 said:
Aren't NYs current testing results at least decently tied to mismanaging the virus so badly they lead the country in Covid deaths by a mile during the first wave?

Hopefully not a strategy other states are going to follow at all.


The other states has the foresight of NY's experience with the first major U.S. outbreak of a novel virus. And yet, here we are...


Where do you think we are exactly?

It's important to keep perspective.

NY, a state with 2/3's of TX population, peaked at 800+ deaths per day.

TX has had less than 2700 deaths total.

Sure, cases and deaths are increasing, but there is zero indication we will get anywhere close to NY numbers despite having close to 50% more people.
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Incorrect, sir!
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In reply to corleoneAg99 • 8:54p, 7/5/20
corleoneAg99 said:


Depends on what you're looking at right? If you're looking at deaths I'd say every other state in the country learned from NYCs disaster quite well.


Sure, modern medicine has learned more about the virus in the last three months. However, as NY is clearly past it's first wave peak and the a good portion of the rest of the country is accelerating with no peak to the first wave in sight, it's a bit too early to feel confident that any lessons were learned.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Incorrect, sir! • 8:57p, 7/5/20
AG
Incorrect, sir! said:
corleoneAg99 said:
Aren't NYs current testing results at least decently tied to mismanaging the virus so badly they lead the country in Covid deaths by a mile during the first wave?

Hopefully not a strategy other states are going to follow at all.


The other states has the foresight of NY's experience with the first major U.S. outbreak of a novel virus. And yet, here we are...


Where are we?
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corleoneAg99
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In reply to Incorrect, sir! • 8:59p, 7/5/20
AG
Incorrect, sir! said:
corleoneAg99 said:


Depends on what you're looking at right? If you're looking at deaths I'd say every other state in the country learned from NYCs disaster quite well.


Sure, modern medicine has learned more about the virus in the last three months. However, as NY is clearly past it's first wave peak and the a good portion of the rest of the country is accelerating with no peak to the first wave in sight, it's a bit too early to feel confident that any lessons were learned.


No confidence "any lessons were learned."?

Strong disagreement on that...even if you just look at how not to handle the elderly population based on what NYC did alone. Doctors also learned a ton about how to treat patients especially early on to help prevent serious illness and death. We've seen doctors on this board say as much.
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Incorrect, sir!
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In reply to corleoneAg99 • 9:14p, 7/5/20
It is clear that the knowledge of how to treat covid patients today is much greater than it was when NY hit it's peak a few months ago. It is also clear that there is no longer any appetite for the public health measures that helped curb case growth in NY. With medical facilities in Texas already under strain and cases continuing to grow, whether there will be sufficient capacity to provide that standard of care to every patient going forward remains to be seen.
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corleoneAg99
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In reply to Incorrect, sir! • 9:19p, 7/5/20
AG
Incorrect, sir! said:
It is clear that the knowledge of how to treat covid patients today is much greater than it was when NY hit it's peak a few months ago. It is also clear that there is no longer any appetite for the public health measures that helped curb case growth in NY. With medical facilities in Texas already under strain and cases continuing to grow, whether there will be sufficient capacity to provide that standard of care to every patient going forward remains to be seen.


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PJYoung
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10:23p, 7/5/20
AG
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Fitch
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10:53p, 7/5/20
AG
Border counties, Austin and San Antonio all seeing upward movement. The state trailing average (~35/day) is creeping back up to it's high in mid-May (~38/day). Hopefully the early signs of a downward trend in Houston continue.




Same data, just adjusted the Y-axis to highlight the trend pattern.

The CDC estimates time between exposure and symptom onset at ~6 days, and the mean number of days from symptom onset to death at ~13-15 days, or around 3 weeks total on average.

The inflection point for the current trend was about that duration from Memorial Day, if that weren't already obvious at this point.
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HotardAg07
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10:50a, 7/6/20
AG
I think there's some decent evidence that Houston was able to reign in the spread of the virus to R=<1.



It's encouraging if it sustains, although we just had a holiday weekend which may have delayed/strung out reporting.

I will say that a lot of data points to the fact that Houston has adjusted its behavior since the initial warning signs of the spike became broadly reported. When I did our grocery shopping the last two weeks, there was 99% mask adoption, much better than before. Also the google mobility data is showing declines.

I'm really hoping mask-wearing alone can keep R<1, so we can behave as normal otherwise with some other common sense precautions.
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AW 1880
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In reply to Fitch • 12:02p, 7/6/20
AG
Fitch, thanks for the charts. Would it be possible to see 7-day rolling average for fatalities and take the x-axis back to March?
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Fitch
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In reply to AW 1880 • 12:20p, 7/6/20
AG
For anywhere in particular, or all of the above? It's no hassle either way.
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PJYoung
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12:31p, 7/6/20
AG
ZERO other people eating lunch at Longhorn Steakhouse today.
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Cyp0111
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In reply to PJYoung • 12:36p, 7/6/20
I did curbside pickup at Pappasitos last night. No one in any of the parking lots of restaurants along 290/Hollister. Only cars at various restaurants curbside pickup spots.

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AW 1880
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In reply to Fitch • 12:47p, 7/6/20
AG
DFW and Texas mainly, but would also be interested in the border areas.
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Fitch
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In reply to AW 1880 • 12:53p, 7/6/20
AG

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goodAg80
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9:07p, 7/6/20
AG
Bummer of a day in Texas. Let's hope it is a blip.



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Ag$08
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10:03p, 7/6/20
Catching up on cases that actually occurred over the holiday weekend?
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909Ag2006
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10:06p, 7/6/20
AG
Mondays and Tuesdays are always high and it trends down through the week and then bottoms out over the weekend.
"They weren't raiding a Girl Scout troop looking for overdue library books."
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Soup93
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In reply to goodAg80 • 9:55a, 7/7/20
AG
Hey GoodAg. Where do you get your chart/stats?

If I look at the state health dept. website, it shows 5318 new cases and 18 deaths for July 6.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Thanks
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goodAg80
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In reply to Soup93 • 10:07a, 7/7/20
AG
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I would think different sites have different timelines for accumulating the data.
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Fitch
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In reply to Soup93 • 10:22a, 7/7/20
AG
The state data are published a day later than the counties. Worldometers sources more or less directly to the county announcements.
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agforlife97
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In reply to Soup93 • 3:15p, 7/7/20
AG
Soup93 said:
Hey GoodAg. Where do you get your chart/stats?

If I look at the state health dept. website, it shows 5318 new cases and 18 deaths for July 6.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Thanks
Does anyone know how Texas is treating the same person who has multiple tests? Apparently many people who test positive have employers that are requiring a negative test before they can return to work. So if a person has tests on several consecutive days, and tests positive more than once, is that counted as more than one case with respect to state statistics?
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HotardAg07
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4:44p, 7/7/20
AG
As expected, today was a catchup day in death reporting:
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Aust Ag
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 5:28p, 7/7/20
AG
Don't know who this Nate Silver guy is, but hats off to him putting that "Holiday weekend" thing on there, or else people would be losing it.

This was the week I was sort of targeting for the trajectory of the Death numbers, will be interesting to see tomorrow's and rest of week stats.
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aggie93
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In reply to goodAg80 • 5:45p, 7/7/20
AG
goodAg80 said:
Bummer of a day in Texas. Let's hope it is a blip.



16 deaths in Hidalgo County yesterday and they have only had 75 total. Almost certainly a reporting glitch that boosted the number where they decided to count previous deaths all at once. When the counts are this low it's easy to see spikes where there aren't spikes.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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