I compiled date death occurred vs date reported for city of houston (based on @HoustonHealth tweets). Out of 90 deaths reported on that twitter account in June mean reporting delay is 25.5 days, median delay is 21 days.
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
EDIT: Rephrasing, it's odd to have the same charts/graphs for weeks and then completely change things up right in the middle of this.ETFan said:plain_o_llama said:
TMC added a statement:
Yesterday, the TMC posted an incomplete slide deck in order to allow time to fully develop a number of new slides. The new slides as well as a number of updated slides that were absent yesterday will be released later today. Collectively, they will provide a more comprehensive and accurate description of the current status.
Aha, I missed that, thank you.
They apparently didn't appreciate every local news and national news agency saying the ICU was 100% full a few days ago. The new charts have been pretty thoroughly sanitized, which probably is for the best.
Fitch said:
They apparently didn't appreciate every local news and national news agency saying the ICU was 100% full a few days ago. The new charts have been pretty thoroughly sanitized, which probably is for the best.
Weren't they close to full normally pre-covid?
Yes, exactly. The media started running with the capacity numbers like it was about to strike midnight on the doomsday clock when, in reality, it is totally normal for an ICU to run above 90%.
Think of it this way - ICU's are expensive to maintain. Hospitals are (mostly) for profit entities. If you were investing, say in rental properties for example, you wouldn't set out to buy properties that would be perennially 50% leased. Sensationalist media and low info populace made it a big deal.
Think of it this way - ICU's are expensive to maintain. Hospitals are (mostly) for profit entities. If you were investing, say in rental properties for example, you wouldn't set out to buy properties that would be perennially 50% leased. Sensationalist media and low info populace made it a big deal.
That's all well and good if it had been a steady 90% capacity for a few weeks. It rose quickly due to a steady, slightly alarming increase of covid patients.
Their own metrics went in to the red and warning areas. So they changed the metrics this weekend.
That cant really be argued. They had the warning criteria up for weeks and once they hit all the warnings they changed the criteria.
Their own metrics went in to the red and warning areas. So they changed the metrics this weekend.
That cant really be argued. They had the warning criteria up for weeks and once they hit all the warnings they changed the criteria.
ETFan said:
That's all well and good if it had been a steady 90% capacity for a few weeks. It rose quickly due to a steady, slightly alarming increase of covid patients.
Their own metrics went in to the red and warning areas. So they changed the metrics this weekend.
That cant really be argued. They had the warning criteria up for weeks and once they hit all the warnings they changed the criteria.
They changed it because they felt the media began trying to scare people with that info and create a false picture of the hospital situation in Houston.
The big hospital systems said as much in the statement they released last Thursday.
I don't know that I necessarily agree with all that. Yes, the publications seem to have been changed right when there was this threshold event, but reading the tea leaves a little there seems to be a more macro concern about people not seeking out care because of a perception there's "no room at the inn".
This is all of Harris County, for example. It's a little eyebrow raising where the compression in non-covid patients is coming from.
This is all of Harris County, for example. It's a little eyebrow raising where the compression in non-covid patients is coming from.
They were always showing additional surge capacity available. I think the public got hung on the 100% base number. The ensuing panic didn't match reality, so TMC worked on showing the situation with more depth. The message of be careful and let's turn the tide is still there.
Well, it had been steady at in the upper 80s/90% range. Slight up tick. The biggest change was COVID going from 15-30% over 2 weeks or so. But overall ICU occupancy didn't go up that drastically.ETFan said:
That's all well and good if it had been a steady 90% capacity for a few weeks. It rose quickly due to a steady, slightly alarming increase of covid patients.
Their own metrics went in to the red and warning areas. So they changed the metrics this weekend.
That cant really be argued. They had the warning criteria up for weeks and once they hit all the warnings they changed the criteria.
I would assume the hospitals voluntarily reduced elective procedures that would lead to patients in the ICU and possibly some patients delaying treatment because of COVID fear. The fear was probably more significant later in the period as the media started fanning the flames. I think the early adjustments would have been more on the hospitals as they were looking at the earlier warning signs much more than the general public.
ETFan said:
That's all well and good if it had been a steady 90% capacity for a few weeks. It rose quickly due to a steady, slightly alarming increase of covid patients.
Their own metrics went in to the red and warning areas. So they changed the metrics this weekend.
That cant really be argued. They had the warning criteria up for weeks and once they hit all the warnings they changed the criteria.
Yes, covid admittance has risen. However, you seem to be ignoring the fact that hospitals have been working on catching up on their elective procedures that they previously had to put on hold.
From one comprehensive study I found that followed 97 different ICUs for 3 years, the average daily ICU bed occupancy ranged from 57% to 82% across the US.Lester Freamon said:
Yes, exactly. The media started running with the capacity numbers like it was about to strike midnight on the doomsday clock when, in reality, it is totally normal for an ICU to run above 90%.
Think of it this way - ICU's are expensive to maintain. Hospitals are (mostly) for profit entities. If you were investing, say in rental properties for example, you wouldn't set out to buy properties that would be perennially 50% leased. Sensationalist media and low info populace made it a big deal.
So while not necessarily rare for an ICU to go above 90%, I wouldn't call it totally normal.
I'm glad the TMC redesigned their bed occupancy visuals. The media sees the color red and words like "unsustainable" and it's full on apocalyptic headlines.
I was commenting on how they changed the way they are reporting ICU usage. There was a sharp increase in COVID patients that bumped capacity up to 100% of base. I'm well aware that non-COVID patients make up the majority of ICU usage currently.oglaw said:ETFan said:
That's all well and good if it had been a steady 90% capacity for a few weeks. It rose quickly due to a steady, slightly alarming increase of covid patients.
Their own metrics went in to the red and warning areas. So they changed the metrics this weekend.
That cant really be argued. They had the warning criteria up for weeks and once they hit all the warnings they changed the criteria.
Yes, covid admittance has risen. However, you seem to be ignoring the fact that hospitals have been working on catching up on their elective procedures that they previously had to put on hold.
Now the media is just going to run the other direction with this. Maybe they shouldn't have used that wording, coloring, metrics, etc for weeks.eidetic78 said:
I'm glad the TMC redesigned their bed occupancy visuals. The media sees the color red and words like "unsustainable" and it's full on apocalyptic headlines.
The TMC should have kept the metrics and data the same and added more informatoin/analysis. By removing the old analysis it looks highly suspect.
I perfectly understood the situation at TMC and so did all of the people I talked to. The alarming thing was not hitting 100% base capacity, it was the fact that the hospitalizatoins have been growing quickly and were on a pace to have TMC hit "surge capacity" in 2 weeks, if the trend did not abate. Therefore, the most important thing to watch day to day are the trends.
I perfectly understood the situation at TMC and so did all of the people I talked to. The alarming thing was not hitting 100% base capacity, it was the fact that the hospitalizatoins have been growing quickly and were on a pace to have TMC hit "surge capacity" in 2 weeks, if the trend did not abate. Therefore, the most important thing to watch day to day are the trends.
Here is ICU usage over time for all of SE Texas. You can filter by county but Harris is the majority of this. Lots of other good data on that site.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.ETFan said:Now the media is just going to run the other direction with this. Maybe they shouldn't have used that wording, coloring, metrics, etc for weeks.eidetic78 said:
I'm glad the TMC redesigned their bed occupancy visuals. The media sees the color red and words like "unsustainable" and it's full on apocalyptic headlines.
Unfortunately, we rely on people being able to use common sense when consuming data. Time and time again we're confronted with the complete lack of it, causing the simplest stats to be either accidentally or purposefully misunderstood or misrepresented to tell whatever the story of the day is.
But, luckily, if you can think for yourself, you don't need the media to do it for you.
Up to 9% positive of tests administered now. We were at 3% on June 4th.
3 more died here yesterday including a man in his 30s.
PJYoung said:
Up to 9% positive of tests administered now. We were at 3% on June 4th.
3 more died here yesterday including a man in his 30s.
Any underlying conditions?
Yes. All had underlying condiitions. He didnt mention that.
Los Angeles is about 50% Latino.
Something like 10% of the total US Latino population lives there.
So that's probably a lot of it.
Something like 10% of the total US Latino population lives there.
So that's probably a lot of it.
planoaggie123 said:
Yes. All had underlying condiitions. He didnt mention that.
ha, i figured it was assumed. I'm not sure we've had anybody die down here that didn't have underlying medical conditions. I'm guessing almost everybody is obese (at the very least) which shouldn't make many of us feel that much better. Diabetes is a big one also.
Age of death for the Hidalgo County Covid-19 victims:
30s: 3
40s: 3
50s: 9
60s: 4
70s: 12
80s: 3
30s: 3
40s: 3
50s: 9
60s: 4
70s: 12
80s: 3
Without me going into excel seems to be skewing towards that younger crowd but sounds like the younger crowd there tends to be a little less healthy...interesting.
planoaggie123 said:
Without me going into excel seems to be skewing towards that younger crowd but sounds like the younger crowd there tends to be a little less healthy...interesting.
Yeah I'm pretty sure Hidalgo County is way up there in obesity.
What's interesting about this chart is you can see the amount of COVID patients in the ICU beds are definitely increasing at a faster rate than the overall blue line of total ICU bed occupancy. Tells me the hospitals are managing their bed usage. This is a good sign to us all that the hospitals learned from the time we bought them from the initial "flatten the curve" time. Very encouraging.CowtownAg06 said:
Here is ICU usage over time for all of SE Texas. You can filter by county but Harris is the majority of this. Lots of other good data on that site.
Hopefully they can still manage with the recent surge.
Or spikes across the border are flooding over into the border states and counties.amercer said:
Los Angeles is about 50% Latino.
Something like 10% of the total US Latino population lives there.
So that's probably a lot of it.
Not saying this isnt the only reason for increase, but this along with the protests, and increased people getting out into society are all contributing to this spike which as California shows, is happening outside of states that are opening up.
And were doing so before the Gov ordered a new ban on non-essential surgeries.Beat40 said:What's interesting about this chart is you can see the amount of COVID patients in the ICU beds are definitely increasing at a faster rate than the overall blue line of total ICU bed occupancy. Tells me the hospitals are managing their bed usage. This is a good sign to us all that the hospitals learned from the time we bought them from the initial "flatten the curve" time. Very encouraging.CowtownAg06 said:
Here is ICU usage over time for all of SE Texas. You can filter by county but Harris is the majority of this. Lots of other good data on that site.
Hopefully they can still manage with the recent surge.
Only 21 new deaths reported yesterday state-wide, 10 the day before.
Also known as double...or exponential...
planoaggie123 said:
Also known as double...or exponential...
Deaths in Texas this week compared to last:
Sunday 10-9
Monday 21-16
Tuesday 59-33
Were there over 50 deaths today? The most recent data I can find is 21 deaths yesterday.
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