So yes, you agree in Texas there could be an increase in cases due to a delayed outbreak here. I've looked at it the same way, why would we not catch up to say, Louisiana, in cases per capita and perhaps deaths per capita. I would also agree we shouldn't end up the same in those categories as NJ or NY, due to difference in population density and perhaps ages, but Louisiana and Georgia - maybe have some "catching up" we have to go through. It's interesting to note Texas is much further from NY than Spain is from Italy, so it's not shocking we have lagged a bit given the lockdowns occurred before it ever got rolling here. The "good" news is that it's what, usually 6-10 weeks for a breakout to rise and then fall, at least it appears that way if I look at Spain/Italy/UK/NY fatality curves. Hopefully by early August we'll be through the worst of it in Texas.
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Yes, the doc from San Antonio thinks that bars are a primary vector. Traffic does essentially seem almost normal now for summertime. Refiners are reporting that gasoline demand is now 85-90% pre-covid levels.PJYoung said:agforlife97 said:
Please keep posting on the state of affairs in San Antonio. Your information is so much better than what we're getting on the local news. Are local hospitals considering putting back restrictions on elective procedures?
The spike in cases seems puzzling. We did phase 2 of opening up about a month ago, allowing restaurants to go to 50% capacity and bars to go to 25%. It seems like a strange delay of a month to have a case surge now.
Since then we've gone to 75% and 50% (at least). I'm guessing as people get more comfortable packing into bars that has been a big source of transmission.
Just a guess tho.
I know traffic has continued to increase over that same time frame.
Old Buffalo,
Deaths is a trailing statistic, as we've posted many times. A surge in cases in hospitalizations isnt' going to turn into a surge in deaths until later. If it's not obvious to you, look at who Houston is reporting as dead every day. Pay attention to the day of death for those reported (they're up to or sometimes over a month old!):
Deaths is a trailing statistic, as we've posted many times. A surge in cases in hospitalizations isnt' going to turn into a surge in deaths until later. If it's not obvious to you, look at who Houston is reporting as dead every day. Pay attention to the day of death for those reported (they're up to or sometimes over a month old!):
This view rests on assumption that same factors that delivered the fatality trends over the last few months remain constant. I do wonder if the case load skewing younger and hopefully better progress on treating the illness will not translate to a repeat of the dark days.Quote:
Deaths is a trailing statistic, as we've posted many times. A surge in cases in hospitalizations isnt' going to turn into a surge in deaths until later.
It also rests on the assumption that the "surge in cases" is any different than what was going on behind the scenes during March and April . . . . .most people have realized the useless nature of these daily graphs at this point.
I am not so bold as to think this is not a worrying trend and there will indeed be a surge in deaths. I suppose we will see in the next few weeks and months. I for sure am staying home and distancing and not rolling the dice.
Yes, but acknowledge that deaths have remained relatively stable UP UNTIL a certain point in the recent weeks.
We've been open for *relatively* 8 weeks now. Why now? And if so, when is there an uptick?
As Windy City pointed out above, this also assumes that the population infected is similar to the population infected during March-April. It's certainly possible (and probably likely given the trends in NY-NJ-MI-PA-CT) that the virus attacked a higher at risk population than it is now.
We've been open for *relatively* 8 weeks now. Why now? And if so, when is there an uptick?
As Windy City pointed out above, this also assumes that the population infected is similar to the population infected during March-April. It's certainly possible (and probably likely given the trends in NY-NJ-MI-PA-CT) that the virus attacked a higher at risk population than it is now.
If I look at hospitalizations, I see a clear trend upwads starting at the Phase 2 re-opening.
I think there may be something to the fact that the summer has forced more Texans/Arizonans/Floridians indoors where it is easier to transfer the virus versus in March/April when we were outside more and the Northern states were indoors escaping the late days of winter.
I'm not exactly sure what's going on, but your argument is that we're not seeing a huge spike in deaths therefore "something must be going on" and my counter argument is that deaths data is backwards looking to an extreme degree and by the time we see a spike in deaths REPORTING, the outbreak will have been well underway.
Again, look at the date of deaths in th last few days. They are reporting deaths from APRIL!
I think there may be something to the fact that the summer has forced more Texans/Arizonans/Floridians indoors where it is easier to transfer the virus versus in March/April when we were outside more and the Northern states were indoors escaping the late days of winter.
I'm not exactly sure what's going on, but your argument is that we're not seeing a huge spike in deaths therefore "something must be going on" and my counter argument is that deaths data is backwards looking to an extreme degree and by the time we see a spike in deaths REPORTING, the outbreak will have been well underway.
Again, look at the date of deaths in th last few days. They are reporting deaths from APRIL!
My own opinion is the current spike is in younger age groups and you will not see a corresponding death rise.
I think the under 35 crowd got tired of sitting at home and went out in droves because they see the chance of death is very small for their demographic, most I know are not interacting with anyone older than them and are working from home so they figure what the hell I will hang with my peers. If I get it I will still be working from home and might feel bad for a few days.
My young neighbor 30 had it a few weeks ago said other than night time fever he was good and just worked from home the whole time. He was happy that he got it and could move on.
I think the under 35 crowd got tired of sitting at home and went out in droves because they see the chance of death is very small for their demographic, most I know are not interacting with anyone older than them and are working from home so they figure what the hell I will hang with my peers. If I get it I will still be working from home and might feel bad for a few days.
My young neighbor 30 had it a few weeks ago said other than night time fever he was good and just worked from home the whole time. He was happy that he got it and could move on.
Easy come, Easy go
I have been to a couple bars and yes there is hardly any precautions taking place. I think opening bars is the "reason" for this surge in cases. Young people just do not care especially when they've been drinking.
HotardAg07 said:
If I look at hospitalizations, I see a clear trend upwads starting at the Phase 2 re-opening.
I think there may be something to the fact that the summer has forced more Texans/Arizonans/Floridians indoors where it is easier to transfer the virus versus in March/April when we were outside more and the Northern states were indoors escaping the late days of winter.
I'm not exactly sure what's going on, but your argument is that we're not seeing a huge spike in deaths therefore "something must be going on" and my counter argument is that deaths data is backwards looking to an extreme degree and by the time we see a spike in deaths REPORTING, the outbreak will have been well underway.
Again, look at the date of deaths in th last few days. They are reporting deaths from APRIL!
If there is a corresponding surge in deaths relative to the current reported surge in case/hospitalizations, etc, we'll hear about it plenty from the media and the medical community and we won't have to wait on the data lag. I think that surge in deaths, or lack thereof, will tell us a lot about the data we are currently consuming.
Bars are a disaster. If there is any singular policy change that is likely to have a big impact, it is closing bars.
Down to 1 day before "normal" ICU capacity is exceeded.
Of course, a reminder that max surge capacity is much higher
I generally hate the "two more weeks" nonsense.
So while I wouldn't change our direction at all, we will actually learn a lot in two weeks from now I'm this instanced. If the death rate doesn't rise in connection to this case spike, that a great sign that opening up is the right move.
So while I wouldn't change our direction at all, we will actually learn a lot in two weeks from now I'm this instanced. If the death rate doesn't rise in connection to this case spike, that a great sign that opening up is the right move.
This makes some intuitive sense, and the timeline on bars re-opening works reasonably well. Hopefully our improved ability to treat the virus will lead to a much lower death rate from now on. We're about to see.Keegan99 said:
Bars are a disaster. If there is any singular policy change that is likely to have a big impact, it is closing bars.
If NYC is any indication 1 in 4 people hospitalized ended up dead
It needs to be a bar curfew so you don't penalize the "bar/restaurants" that can operate safely during the day. When the sun goes down that's when it gets bad.
While true, they peaked daily deaths 2 months ago. I think Docs have learned a huge amount about the potential treatment plans since then. I'd be interested to see a mortality rate over time for NY.
The % of positive tests I think is especially misleading in TX.
Think back to March and April in TX. We had PPE and test shortages, and were focused on preserving hospital capacity for the feared tsunami which didn't come.
Most people who had symptoms never got tested, and all were told to stay home until symptoms got really bad. So the majority of the infected who were symptomatic were not tested, and very few asymptomatic but exposed were getting tested at all.
Now we have much greater testing capacity and a lot less fear of hospitals and from hospitals. We have a lot more asymptomatic but exposed who are being tested, and just about everyone who is symptomatic is being tested.
Anecdotally, in my circle in B/CS I am currently aware of at least 4 who have tested positive this week. None of them have symptoms greater than a weak cold, so there is zero chance they would have gotten tested in March or April.
I absolutely think there are more infections in TX right now than there have been, because this is really our first major wave. We shut down too soon for the initial wave to infect many people. But I also think the severity of this spike is being exaggerated due to the factors described above.
Think back to March and April in TX. We had PPE and test shortages, and were focused on preserving hospital capacity for the feared tsunami which didn't come.
Most people who had symptoms never got tested, and all were told to stay home until symptoms got really bad. So the majority of the infected who were symptomatic were not tested, and very few asymptomatic but exposed were getting tested at all.
Now we have much greater testing capacity and a lot less fear of hospitals and from hospitals. We have a lot more asymptomatic but exposed who are being tested, and just about everyone who is symptomatic is being tested.
Anecdotally, in my circle in B/CS I am currently aware of at least 4 who have tested positive this week. None of them have symptoms greater than a weak cold, so there is zero chance they would have gotten tested in March or April.
I absolutely think there are more infections in TX right now than there have been, because this is really our first major wave. We shut down too soon for the initial wave to infect many people. But I also think the severity of this spike is being exaggerated due to the factors described above.
more likely we're not that far away from the death spike
I didn't say we weren't
Looking at Fitch's graphs, it's curious how perfectly correlated the reduction in non-covid ICU admissions is with the Covid increase.
Given how few ICU days are avoidable or can be quickly reduced - this makes me think this is mostly a factor of (1) better coding of cases as covid, which gives hospitals access to the relief funding and (2) increased prevalence of testing. These are patients who a week ago were in the icu and not identified as covid - but now we're testing them and identifying them.
Given how few ICU days are avoidable or can be quickly reduced - this makes me think this is mostly a factor of (1) better coding of cases as covid, which gives hospitals access to the relief funding and (2) increased prevalence of testing. These are patients who a week ago were in the icu and not identified as covid - but now we're testing them and identifying them.
Just read Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag's many posts on the topic. Here's one:
https://texags.com/account/profile/165507
That's why we're on this board, right? To get information directly from boots on the ground?Quote:
Unfortunately for us in Texas, it is only just starting. The several hospitals I currently work at are now filled with COVID patients in their ERs, which was never the case previously. We are now required to wear N95s at all times while at work, due to how bad conditions have got. Patients are waiting 5-6 hours to have labs drawn in the ER because we have no beds to place patients in. We have run out of high-flow nasal cannulas at one location. We have COVID patients sitting in hallways. COVID patients sitting in waiting rooms. We have quickly gone from just young and healthy COVID patients, to elderly COVID patients mixed in. 2 weeks ago, I was still seeing 1 every other shift. I am now seeing 7-8 every shift, and that number continues to increase.
This is not over by a long shot, and will get much worse if you live in Texas. Death rates lag behind new cases. Expect a significant increase in deaths 1-2 weeks from now.
https://texags.com/account/profile/165507
True, but I think we should also take into account that by nature of their roles doctors will inherently only see the worst cases, not the large percentage of people who get it and either don't know (like the majority of the recent positives from the sports world) or who just have mild flu symptoms and stay home (example - the approximately 12 people or so I know that have tested positive and at worst were sick for a day or two).
Not that it's not important to know the worst case scenarios, just that we should be careful not to overweight it since that feedback will naturally be a bit biased towards the most severe cases.
Not that it's not important to know the worst case scenarios, just that we should be careful not to overweight it since that feedback will naturally be a bit biased towards the most severe cases.
I am responding to a poster that is basically claiming that the rising data is just an issue of data collection, however we have a doctor on here who is saying that in the last 2 weeks his hospitals have gone from 1-2 covid cases a day in his ER to 60+ in Texas. So when the "boots on the ground" evidence lines up with the data the hospitals are providing us, it tells a pretty clear picture of what is going on.
That's fair. We shut down the economy to buy the hospitals time so hopefully we're in better shape to handle it now.
From a ICU bed perspective, should we have opened elective medical procedures up at the same time as bars/restaurants? ICU beds are typically at 60-80% capacity, right, so I wonder if reopening should have been more of a staggered process. Not allowing elective procedures to continue through the lockdown seems to have put some parts of the medical community behind the eight ball when 'catching up.'
It doesn't seem like any one aspect can be singled out as much a convergence of many aspects at one time. Its like a bunch of co-dependent variables with a multiplier effect.
It doesn't seem like any one aspect can be singled out as much a convergence of many aspects at one time. Its like a bunch of co-dependent variables with a multiplier effect.
People only see what they want to see.HotardAg07 said:
I am responding to a poster that is basically claiming that the rising data is just an issue of data collection, however we have a doctor on here who is saying that in the last 2 weeks his hospitals have gone from 1-2 covid cases a day in his ER to 60+ in Texas. So when the "boots on the ground" evidence lines up with the data the hospitals are providing us, it tells a pretty clear picture of what is going on.
Keegan99 said:
Re: The Border.
Saying "the bridge is closed" does not mean there isn't plenty of crossing occuring.
Ha we are shipping them south in the RGV. Mexico isn't the problem here.
Quote:
On the Texas-Mexico border, the dynamic appears to be inverted. Mexican officials have expressed concern that a growing outbreak in South Texas is spilling over into Tamaulipas, which had been largely spared during the pandemic.
The United States has deported thousands of people to Tamaulipas since March. In Reynosa, Mexico, the largest city in the state, at least 16 deportees have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to Mayor Maki Ortiz. Before becoming mayor, she was Mexico's undersecretary of health.
Keegan99 said:
Re: The Border.
Saying "the bridge is closed" does not mean there isn't plenty of crossing occuring.
I can't read the Washington Post article, but are they implying the cause of the current spikes in cases is due to people crossing over the border? Or that the increased numbers are primarily Mexican nationals? Or something else entirely? Implying the first two would be absurd, but I'll withhold my opinion until someone can give a rundown of the article.
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:Keegan99 said:
Re: The Border.
Saying "the bridge is closed" does not mean there isn't plenty of crossing occuring.
I can't read the Washington Post article, but are they implying the cause of the current spikes in cases is due to people crossing over the border? Or that the increased numbers are primarily Mexican nationals? Or something else entirely? Implying the first two would be absurd, but I'll withhold my opinion until someone can give a rundown of the article.
Americans living in Mexico get sick and come over here to be treated.
It's from May 27. Here is an archive link.
https://web.archive.org/web/20200527233119/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/05/27/coronavirus-mexico-border/?arc404=true
https://web.archive.org/web/20200527233119/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/05/27/coronavirus-mexico-border/?arc404=true
FWIW Texas likely passes Italy's peak for daily new cases today. However, the day prior they were at 792 daily deaths compared to TX's 42. That's pretty wild.
