Daily Charts

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agforlife97
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In reply to Gordo14 • 2:59p, 6/23/20
AG
Gordo14 said:


I'm very optimistic that the outcome of a vaccine, and a well managed effort to get through this, but the biggest threat is that people don't take this seriously. I'm disappointed that the recent data isn't making you all take it seriously and instead many of you all have doubled down - just as many of you did on the death count and what happened in New York City.
I'm very skeptical of the idea that a vaccine will happen in months. I think it will take 2 years minimum. If you assume that, then it's easy to see how locking down every 6 weeks can't possibly be the right policy choice.

The average age of a Covid death in the US is 81, while life expectancy is 77. 40-60% of all covid deaths in the US have been in nursing homes. Virtually no one under 50 dies from covid.

I'm fine wearing a mask in public places, but I don't take covid that seriously. It poses no more risk to me than normal car accident risk, which I have flouted my entire life.
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MBAR
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3:25p, 6/23/20
AG
Weird, thought this thread was titled Daily Charts.
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Old Buffalo
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In reply to PJYoung • 3:26p, 6/23/20
AG
Still think it's a fair to question "why" there are hospitalizations. Based on data from TMC, these all seem to be shorter stays (knowing that deaths haven't tremendously spiked versus total change in patients, implied discharges trend relatively close).


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agforlife97
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 3:33p, 6/23/20
AG
Old Buffalo said:
Still think it's a fair to question "why" there are hospitalizations. Based on data from TMC, these all seem to be shorter stays (knowing that deaths haven't tremendously spiked versus total change in patients, implied discharges trend relatively close).


Good post. So what happened around June 10th?
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Old Buffalo
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In reply to agforlife97 • 3:44p, 6/23/20
AG
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culdeus
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6:17p, 6/23/20
AG

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culdeus
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6:18p, 6/23/20
AG
Man that picture tells a really crisp story
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Keegan99
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In reply to culdeus • 6:31p, 6/23/20
AG
It does no such thing. As screening criteria and test availability are not constant, you cannot compare "case counts" over time.
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culdeus
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In reply to Keegan99 • 6:36p, 6/23/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
It does no such thing. As screening criteria and test availability are not constant, you cannot compare "case counts" over time.


Ok. Well luckily Texas is losing testing funding so we should see a decline in cases soon too.
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cone
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In reply to culdeus • 6:41p, 6/23/20
AG
nice attempt to deflect
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cone
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6:42p, 6/23/20
AG
25% of NYC had antibodies in April

what do you think sentinel testing would have looked like in late March there?
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Keegan99
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6:48p, 6/23/20
AG
In March and April the US had very limited testing capacity. It was brought to bear on the northeast.

Texas had run a total of 330k tests prior to May 1st.

Texas has run more than than over the last 10 days.

It's no surprise that regions of the country that were starved for tests throughout March and April are finding a lot more "cases" now.
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murphyag
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In reply to culdeus • 6:58p, 6/23/20
AG
culdeus said:
Keegan99 said:
It does no such thing. As screening criteria and test availability are not constant, you cannot compare "case counts" over time.


Ok. Well luckily Texas is losing testing funding so we should see a decline in cases soon too.


Can you expand on this? What's the deal with Texas losing testing funding? Why?
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
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In reply to Keegan99 • 2:05a, 6/24/20
Keegan99 said:
In March and April the US had very limited testing capacity. It was brought to bear on the northeast.

Texas had run a total of 330k tests prior to May 1st.

Texas has run more than than over the last 10 days.

It's no surprise that regions of the country that were starved for tests throughout March and April are finding a lot more "cases" now.

Texas is seeing more cases than everywhere else outside of Florida and Phoenix because we are seeing a huge surge in cases, not because we are testing more. Everywhere in the country is testing more. You think they stopped testing an NYC? Let's stop doing mental gymnastics to avoid recognizing the obvious situation we are in. Our ERs in San Antonio are inundated with COVID patients right now, and not just young, healthy patients. We went from 2-3 Covid patients a day, to 50-60 in just 2 weeks. We are hurting in a bad way.

No need to live in fear, but take precautions, protect those that are vulnerable, and don't be a moron.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag • 7:28a, 6/24/20
AG
I never said there wasn't an increase in "cases".

I said that one cannot compare "case counts" over time.

We have very little insight into actual prevalence in most of the country in March and April.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Keegan99 • 8:03a, 6/24/20
AG



On June 4th Hidalgo County was at 3.21% positive tests. Today we are at 6.34%.

The international bridge has been closed since March so it's not Mexico's fault.

EDIT: and I just read this about SPI testing. Yikes

Quote:
"From what we've seen, Hidalgo County, South Padre Island especially South Padre Island in our region has been a large hot spot," said Dr. Emilie Prot, regional director for Public Health Region 11 of the Department of State Health Services.

During one day of testing at South Padre Island, she said there was a 25% positivity rate among members of the public who chose to get tested.

"So that is extremely alarming," Prot said. "We haven't even seen that in a nursing home setting."
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deadbq03
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In reply to Keegan99 • 8:05a, 6/24/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
I never said there wasn't an increase in "cases".

I said that one cannot compare "case counts" over time.

We have very little insight into actual prevalence in most of the country in March and April.
You're 100% correct. Presumably, in March and April, they were saving tests for those at highest risk who had confirmed exposures and/or symptoms... so one would expect that with tests being saved for those situations, that the rates of positive results would've been highest back then.

And yet in Houston (and probably elsewhere in TX, I'll admit I only look at Houston numbers), there's been a higher rate of positive cases than ever before. And more new ICU hospitalizations than ever before.

Anecdotally, you have lots of doctors on this board saying it's getting worse in their hospitals. For me personally, I have a friend who's a nurse who has shifted her career to hospital administration and they've made her return to the ICU to be a nurse again because her hospital is worse than its ever been before (Houston area).

Why do you keep trying to spin numbers as if this isn't getting worse for us here?

You can debate how we should handle this increase all you want, but please stop trying to fight the stats.
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Keegan99
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In reply to deadbq03 • 8:11a, 6/24/20
AG

Quote:
Why do you keep trying to spin numbers as if this isn't getting worse for us here?

I never said it wasn't. We have a greater number of identified cases.

I claimed that the graph showing the geographic distribution of "cases" over time was quantitative bunk. And it is.
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Phat32
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8:13a, 6/24/20
AG
This is the first wave in TX. We haven't really had it yet. Fortunately we are more prepared.
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cone
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In reply to deadbq03 • 8:13a, 6/24/20
AG
personally, i'd like more stats

as in age and gender and underlying conditions related to these hospitalizations

just like they released in NYC
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goodAg80
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In reply to deadbq03 • 8:38a, 6/24/20
AG
Quote:
Why do you keep trying to spin numbers as if this isn't getting worse for us here?
We know why. The rest of us can focus on what is happening and try to improve the situation.
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HowdyTexasAggies
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In reply to goodAg80 • 8:41a, 6/24/20
AG
How is denigrating someone such as Keegan, whom has been very neutral in his number analysis, going to improve the situation?
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corleoneAg99
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 8:43a, 6/24/20
AG
OlSarge92 said:
How is denigrating someone such as Keegan, whom has been very neutral in his number analysis, going to improve the situation?


It doesn't improve the situation at all and math, devoid of emotion, does not mix well with fear apparently.

It's that simple.

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ExpressAg11
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8:48a, 6/24/20
AG
So I have what is probably a dumb question and this is not directed at anyone specifically:

Shouldn't we expect hospitals to be "stressed" and at/over capacity during a global pandemic? I understand it's not ideal and is a strain on the healthcare system, but aren't overloaded hospitals to be expected for something that is affecting the whole world?
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GAC06
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In reply to ExpressAg11 • 8:52a, 6/24/20
AG
It's best if we shut down to the point that hospitals have to lay off employees. That's how you know we're winning
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J. Walter Weatherman
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In reply to ExpressAg11 • 8:52a, 6/24/20
Agreed. I'd be curious to hear from the docs how the last few days compares to a peak flu season, since hospital capacity, ICU capacity etc have never really been publicly reported on before.
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Complete Idiot
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In reply to J. Walter Weatherman • 8:54a, 6/24/20
J. Walter Weatherman said:
Agreed. I'd be curious to hear from the docs how the last few days compares to a peak flu season, since hospital capacity, ICU capacity etc have never really been publicly reported on before.
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01/11/flu-levels-rise-texas-officials-advise-public-be-aware/
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goodAg80
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 9:05a, 6/24/20
AG
OlSarge92 said:
How is denigrating someone such as Keegan, whom has been very neutral in his number analysis, going to improve the situation?
I am not trying to disparage anyone, but Keegan has a certain point of view. Keegan has contradicted folks who are trying to raise concerns about the recent increase in cases. His position has been that this is dissipating. He has stated that we will track the reductions seen in Italy and Spain.

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Windy City Ag
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In reply to ExpressAg11 • 9:10a, 6/24/20
AG
Quote:
Shouldn't we expect hospitals to be "stressed" and at/over capacity during a global pandemic? I understand it's not ideal and is a strain on the healthcare system, but aren't overloaded hospitals to be expected for something that is affecting the whole world?
I think the argument is that overloaded hospitals are not an inevitable outcome if proper preventative measures are taken by responsible individuals.

If we were a bunch of Vulcans and followed hygiene and social distancing, practices consistently, the spread of the virus would be much less robust and our hospital system would be able to manage the flow of eventual cases without too much stress.

You look at some of the Asian countries, they have had very little spread despite avoiding draconian lockdown measures for this very reason.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Complete Idiot • 9:11a, 6/24/20
AG
Complete Idiot said:
J. Walter Weatherman said:
Agreed. I'd be curious to hear from the docs how the last few days compares to a peak flu season, since hospital capacity, ICU capacity etc have never really been publicly reported on before.
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/01/11/flu-levels-rise-texas-officials-advise-public-be-aware/

It is a happy coincidence that the strict measures put in place to limit the spread of covid has knocked out the flu. A bad flu season on top of a surge of covid-19 cases would be terrible.
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Keegan99
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In reply to goodAg80 • 9:15a, 6/24/20
AG
goodAg80 said:
OlSarge92 said:
How is denigrating someone such as Keegan, whom has been very neutral in his number analysis, going to improve the situation?
I am not trying to disparage anyone, but Keegan has a certain point of view. Keegan has contradicted folks who are trying to raise concerns about the recent increase in cases. His position has been that this is dissipating. He has stated that we will track the reductions seen in Italy and Spain.


Nationally that is true.

We may see localized outbreaks, but realistically Texas based on our large metros and low per-capita mortality figure likely has some "catching up" to do. Georgia, for example, has 1/3 of our population and more fatalities.

But anyone predicting we will become NY, NJ, or similar is full of it.
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Windy City Ag
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In reply to goodAg80 • 9:16a, 6/24/20
AG
Quote:
I am not trying to disparage anyone, but Keegan has a certain point of view. Keegan has contradicted folks who are trying to raise concerns about the recent increase in cases. His position has been that this is dissipating. He has stated that we will track the reductions seen in Italy and Spain.
His main point, which is very valid, is that the relevance of earlier numbers is very questionable so the view that "cases are on the rise" is just speculation as we did not really capture the actual spread of the virus. . . .I have some sympathy for that argument.

All that being said, the number of hospital beds is finite and medical pros in places like Houston are getting really worried so you can't just say things are still on trend.
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agforlife97
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In reply to Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag • 9:16a, 6/24/20
AG
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:
Keegan99 said:
In March and April the US had very limited testing capacity. It was brought to bear on the northeast.

Texas had run a total of 330k tests prior to May 1st.

Texas has run more than than over the last 10 days.

It's no surprise that regions of the country that were starved for tests throughout March and April are finding a lot more "cases" now.

Texas is seeing more cases than everywhere else outside of Florida and Phoenix because we are seeing a huge surge in cases, not because we are testing more. Everywhere in the country is testing more. You think they stopped testing an NYC? Let's stop doing mental gymnastics to avoid recognizing the obvious situation we are in. Our ERs in San Antonio are inundated with COVID patients right now, and not just young, healthy patients. We went from 2-3 Covid patients a day, to 50-60 in just 2 weeks. We are hurting in a bad way.

No need to live in fear, but take precautions, protect those that are vulnerable, and don't be a moron.
Please keep posting on the state of affairs in San Antonio. Your information is so much better than what we're getting on the local news. Are local hospitals considering putting back restrictions on elective procedures?

The spike in cases seems puzzling. We did phase 2 of opening up about a month ago, allowing restaurants to go to 50% capacity and bars to go to 25%. It seems like a strange delay of a month to have a case surge now.
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PJYoung
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In reply to agforlife97 • 9:21a, 6/24/20
AG
agforlife97 said:
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:
Keegan99 said:
In March and April the US had very limited testing capacity. It was brought to bear on the northeast.

Texas had run a total of 330k tests prior to May 1st.

Texas has run more than than over the last 10 days.

It's no surprise that regions of the country that were starved for tests throughout March and April are finding a lot more "cases" now.

Texas is seeing more cases than everywhere else outside of Florida and Phoenix because we are seeing a huge surge in cases, not because we are testing more. Everywhere in the country is testing more. You think they stopped testing an NYC? Let's stop doing mental gymnastics to avoid recognizing the obvious situation we are in. Our ERs in San Antonio are inundated with COVID patients right now, and not just young, healthy patients. We went from 2-3 Covid patients a day, to 50-60 in just 2 weeks. We are hurting in a bad way.

No need to live in fear, but take precautions, protect those that are vulnerable, and don't be a moron.
Please keep posting on the state of affairs in San Antonio. Your information is so much better than what we're getting on the local news. Are local hospitals considering putting back restrictions on elective procedures?

The spike in cases seems puzzling. We did phase 2 of opening up about a month ago, allowing restaurants to go to 50% capacity and bars to go to 25%. It seems like a strange delay of a month to have a case surge now.

Since then we've gone to 75% and 50% (at least). I'm guessing as people get more comfortable packing into bars that has been a big source of transmission.

Just a guess tho.

I know traffic has continued to increase over that same time frame.
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Old Buffalo
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9:22a, 6/24/20
AG
Here is a breakout between NY-NJ-PA-MI-CT (what I would term the original hot spot areas), the new "hot spots" that everyone is focused on, and all other states.

No doubt that the hot states are increasing in hospitalizations based on daily change. However, there was never the massive increase NNPMC saw.


By State


So now the question becomes what do those hospitalizations turn into? Right now, small increase but nothing significant from where "Hot States" have trended beginning May 1st.


By State



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